????這個(gè)世界正走向地獄？還是會(huì)變得更好？

????每個(gè)人對(duì)未來(lái)的看法不同，便會(huì)給出不同的答案。但如果你向普林斯頓大學(xué)教授、2015年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主安格斯·迪頓問(wèn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題，他的答案肯定會(huì)令你倍受鼓舞。正如他在2013年所著的《大脫貧：健康、財(cái)富及不平等的起源》一書(shū)中所寫(xiě)的那樣：“情況正越來(lái)越好，甚至超乎我們的想象。”

????迪頓是一名樂(lè)觀(guān)主義者。在上述代表作中，他認(rèn)為，縱觀(guān)歷史可見(jiàn)：世界在進(jìn)步。他指出，在全球范圍內(nèi)，貧窮、死亡和孤立呈減少趨勢(shì)；在他看來(lái)，總體而言，我們正活在一個(gè)前所未有的好時(shí)代。

????為什么今年的諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)授予了迪頓？據(jù)評(píng)選委員會(huì)表示，迪頓憑借三個(gè)方面的重大貢獻(xiàn)獲得這一獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)。首先，他在上世紀(jì)80年代開(kāi)發(fā)出了一項(xiàng)工具——“近乎理想的需求系統(tǒng)”——這一模型模擬消費(fèi)者如何消費(fèi)。其次，他在上世紀(jì)90年代的研究，對(duì)當(dāng)時(shí)流行的關(guān)于消費(fèi)或消費(fèi)者支出的宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論提出了質(zhì)疑，并指出了綜合數(shù)據(jù)的不足。（他認(rèn)為，個(gè)體數(shù)據(jù)同樣重要。）第三，他率先在發(fā)展中國(guó)家使用家庭調(diào)查，收集更準(zhǔn)確的、經(jīng)驗(yàn)主義的、個(gè)性化的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。

????迪頓有足夠的理由保持樂(lè)觀(guān)。他是一位著名學(xué)者，在一所常春藤盟校有著安逸的工作。他出生于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，在職業(yè)生涯當(dāng)中贏(yíng)得了無(wú)數(shù)獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)、獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金和榮譽(yù)學(xué)位。現(xiàn)在，他可以自豪地在無(wú)數(shù)榮譽(yù)前面再加上一條——他是所有人夢(mèng)寐以求的諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)的獲得者。擁有如此多的榮譽(yù)，誰(shuí)會(huì)不感到樂(lè)觀(guān)呢？

????《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》記者戴維·倫哈德在對(duì)迪頓2013年的代表作進(jìn)行評(píng)論時(shí)，敏銳地指出：“迪頓很清楚，許多讀者對(duì)于他的觀(guān)點(diǎn)會(huì)持懷疑態(tài)度。特別是那些重視金錢(qián)更甚于重視人類(lèi)基本需求的人。”

????迪頓是第一個(gè)承認(rèn)不平等存在的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。世界上一直都有疾病、饑荒和戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。他在獲獎(jiǎng)感言中表示，日益嚴(yán)重的不平等和氣候變化是棘手的問(wèn)題。但總體而言，這位提倡教育，不贊成國(guó)外援助的學(xué)者主張，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，我們有理由對(duì)未來(lái)抱以希望。人類(lèi)的平均壽命正在延長(zhǎng)。貧困正在減少。經(jīng)濟(jì)在迅速發(fā)展（這取決于你怎么看）。

????據(jù)CNN財(cái)經(jīng)頻道報(bào)道，迪頓在獲獎(jiǎng)之后表示：“我預(yù)計(jì)[貧困]將減少。過(guò)去20年，全世界貧困水平顯著下降，我認(rèn)為這一趨勢(shì)仍會(huì)繼續(xù)。但我并不想讓人們認(rèn)為我是在盲目樂(lè)觀(guān)。”

????我們可以用他在那本過(guò)分樂(lè)觀(guān)的書(shū)中的一句話(huà)，來(lái)總結(jié)迪頓的理論：“今天的世界總是比過(guò)去更美好的。”

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????The world: Is it going to hell in a hand basket? Or is life improving?

????The answer to this question likely depends upon one’s personal outlook. If you ask Angus Deaton, the Scottish-born Princeton professor who on Monday won the 2015 Nobel Prize in economics, however, he will supply a cheery answer. As he writes in his 2013 book The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, “Things are getting better, and hugely so.”

????Deaton is an optimist. His reading of history, as laid out in his magnum opus (cited above), suggests one of progress. He argues that poverty, death, and isolation are in global decline; in his view, there has never been, on the whole, a better time to be alive.

????Why Deaton? According to the selection committee, Deaton earned the award for three major contributions to the field. First, for his development of a tool in the ’80s—the Almost Ideal Demand System—which models how consumers spend their money, or “how the demand for each good depends on the prices of all goods on individual incomes.” Second, for his research in the ’90s, which countered prevailing macroeconomic theories of consumption—or consumer spending—by pointing out the flaws of aggregate data. (Individual data is just as key, he argued.) And third, for his pioneering use of household surveys to collect more accurate, empirical, individualized economic data in developing countries.

????Deaton has every reason to be optimistic, of course. He is an eminent man of letters with a cushy gig at an Ivy League institution. He was born in the developed world and has won no small number of awards, fellowships, and honorary degrees, throughout his distinguished career. To that list, he may now add that he is the proud owner of a coveted piece of Swedish bling, so to speak. Who wouldn’t he be optimistic given those laurels?

????“Deaton is surely aware that many readers will view these claims with skepticism,” New York Times reporter David Leonhardt acutely observes in his review of the economist’s 2013 master work, “especially coming from someone whose discipline often seems to elevate money over basic human needs.”

????Deaton is the first to acknowledge that inequalities exist. There is disease, famine, war. Amid his acceptance of the award, he cited rising inequality and climate change as troublesome trends. Generally speaking, however, the proponent of education and a critic of foreign aid contends that the data show cause to be sanguine. Life expectancy is up. Destitution, down. Economic development—depending where you look—climbing apace.

????“I do foresee a decrease [in poverty]. We’ve seen a remarkable decrease over the past 20 years, and I do forecast that will continue,” Deaton said after receiving the prize, reports CNN Money. “But I don’t want to sound like a blind optimist.”

????To summarize the man’s life’s work, as his Panglossian book blurb asserts: “The world is a better place than it used to be.”