????重型設(shè)備制造商卡特彼勒上周四（9月24日）宣布，將在2018年底前裁員逾萬(wàn)人，同時(shí)下調(diào)了2015和2016年的收入增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。

????卡特彼勒陷入困境并不是什么新聞。如果該公司的2015年收入預(yù)期成真，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)過(guò)去12個(gè)季度中9個(gè)季度收入下降的局面。業(yè)績(jī)滑坡的原因是全球能源和采礦行業(yè)表現(xiàn)低迷，以及中國(guó)和巴西等新興市場(chǎng)增速放慢。人們經(jīng)常把卡特彼勒視為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)晴雨表，因?yàn)樗a(chǎn)的設(shè)備用于資源采掘和建設(shè)等活動(dòng)，而這些活動(dòng)正是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力所在，特別是在新興市場(chǎng)。

????今年1月份我曾解釋過(guò)，為什么卡特彼勒下調(diào)業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)期意味著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將遇到麻煩。幾個(gè)月后，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)就急劇放緩，A股也大幅下跌；另外，作為曾經(jīng)的另一顆希望之星，巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)也陷入了衰退。來(lái)自卡特彼勒的最新消息讓人無(wú)法相信新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體將很快復(fù)蘇。

????Heavy-equipment manufacturer Caterpillar CAT -6.27% announced Thursday that it will cut more than 10,000 jobs through 2018 at the same time that it lowered its expectations for revenue growth in 2015 and 2016.

????Caterpillar’s woes are not new. If its revenue projections for 2015 are realized, they will mark the ninth quarter in the previous 12 in which revenue fell. The declines are being driven by weakness in the energy and mining businesses worldwide, and slowed growth in emerging markets like China and Brazil. Caterpillar is often seen as a global bellwether, since its equipment is used for activities like resource extraction and construction, which provide the engine for economic growth, especially in emerging markets.

????Back in January, I wrote about why Caterpillar lowering its guidance spelled trouble for the global economy. Months later, we saw China’s economy slow sharply while its stock market crashed, while another one-time rising star, Brazil, entered a recession. The latest news from Caterpillar does not offer any reason to believe that the emerging economic world will recover any time soon.

????卡特彼勒的問(wèn)題不光是收入減少，從上面的收入增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)可以看出，局勢(shì)顯然正在惡化。就新興市場(chǎng)而言，沒(méi)有哪家公司能像卡特彼勒那樣消息靈通。如果該公司預(yù)計(jì)今后16個(gè)月收入將滑坡，這對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)資本投資來(lái)說(shuō)絕不是什么好消息。

????這條消息和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家戴維?列維一直以來(lái)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法不謀而合。列維指出，發(fā)現(xiàn)衰退跡象的關(guān)鍵在于觀察全球投資情況。如果投資增多，利潤(rùn)就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速也會(huì)加快。如果投資下降，衰退就不會(huì)太遠(yuǎn)。在下圖中可以看出，全球資本投資的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力一直來(lái)自新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，而非發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家。

????卡特彼勒的預(yù)期表明，新興市場(chǎng)的下滑勢(shì)頭不會(huì)很快出現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)。正如列維指出的那樣：

????“[發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)]投資也沒(méi)有帶來(lái)多大的提升。從周期角度講，美國(guó)的投資已進(jìn)入成熟階段，沒(méi)有大量受到抑制的需求，沒(méi)有高的離譜因而需要下調(diào)的利率，也不存在經(jīng)濟(jì)增速加快可在一夜之間提振公司預(yù)期的可能性。歐元區(qū)在七年中經(jīng)歷了兩次衰退，應(yīng)該說(shuō)那里也許有一些受抑制需求，但其增長(zhǎng)潛力極為有限，而且歐元區(qū)銀行幾乎沒(méi)有承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的欲望，基本上形同虛設(shè)。”

????如果說(shuō)卡特彼勒是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的“礦難預(yù)警器”，那么也許已經(jīng)到了朝著出口撤離的時(shí)候了。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????Not only is Caterpillar’s revenue shrinking, but the situation appears to be getting worse, as you can see from the revenue-growth figures above. No company has their ear to the ground when it comes to emerging markets like Caterpillar, and if it is expecting its revenue to fall in the next 16 months, that doesn’t bode well for capital investment in emerging economies.

????This information dovetails with worries that economist David Levy has been voicing over the global economy. He argues that the key to spotting recessions is looking at overall global investment. As investment rises, so will profits and growth. When investments are falling, a recession isn’t that far around the corner. As you can see from the following chart, the growth in global capital investment has been coming from the emerging economic world, not developed economies.

????Caterpillar’s projections suggest that the emerging world isn’t going to reverse this trend anytime soon. And as Levy has written:

????“[Developed market] investment isn’t providing much lift either. Cyclically, investment is mature in the United States; there is no great pent-up demand, no prohibitively high interest rates to be slashed, and no prospect that an economic acceleration will enhance business expectations overnight. The euro area might arguably have some pent-up demand after two recessions in seven years, but growth prospects remain severely limited, and euro banks remain largely zombies with little appetite for risk.”

????If Caterpillar is the canary in the global economy’s coal mine, it might be time to head for the exits.