????作為避難所的德國要不堪重負了，至少目前情況如此。上周末，德國關閉了邊境，將難民拒之門外，并且截停了載有數千避難者的來自奧地利的列車。作為歐洲最大經濟體，德國的“敞開大門”政策也有上限。僅上周六（9月12）一天，就有超過1.3萬名難民涌進了慕尼黑。

????德國內政部長托馬斯?德邁齊表示，這項政府緊急命令是臨時措施，旨在讓德國用更有序的方式來接納難民潮。

????申根協定允許持合法護照者在26個歐洲簽約國自由通行。然而，突然叫停申根協定的做法已經在一些國家蔓延——奧地利、斯洛伐克以及荷蘭也已采取同樣措施；匈牙利和捷克也加強了邊境控制；法國、波蘭和瑞典則正在考慮實施類似行動。鐵幕已經消失了25年以上，而今人們似乎正在重新筑起這道壁壘。

????局面本不該如此。按預估，德國今年本來要接納80萬難民，其中許多都來自戰火紛飛的敘利亞。這樣的難民接納規模在西方發達國家中首屈一指。與之形成對比的是，奧巴馬政府終于承諾美國將接收1萬名敘利亞難民——至少已經許下了這樣的諾言。但考慮到嚴格的背景審查以及安全方面的要求，幾乎可以肯定，這個過程將耗時數年。本周一（9月14日），在布魯塞爾召開的歐盟內政部長會議未能拿出解決方案，這似乎使得恐慌情緒在歐盟蔓延進一步加速，進而阻礙成員國采取接收難民的行動。

????難民危機是對歐洲一體化理念的又一次考驗。不過，和較為貧窮、人口也較少的中東國家這些年來一直被迫應付的局面相比——他們也沒像歐洲那么大呼小叫——就能更客觀地看待本次危機的真正程度。

????2011年敘利亞爆發內戰，至今已有400萬敘利亞人背井離鄉，其中大多數都逃到了約旦、土耳其和黎巴嫩。經濟和物產同樣貧乏的約旦接納了60多萬難民，后者給約旦的房地產市場帶來了沉重壓力，他們對水的巨大需求也讓約旦的水資源迅速減少。今年，土耳其的難民數量直線上升，已逼近200萬人。情況最壞的也許要數小國黎巴嫩，當地本來已有逾40萬巴勒斯坦難民，現在又來了110萬敘利亞人尋求庇護。在如今的黎巴嫩，大約每四個人里就有一個是難民。

????這些敘利亞鄰國的財力無法承擔這樣的重擔。約旦、土耳其和黎巴嫩三國共有人口8600萬，名義GDP總額約9000億美元。而歐洲有5億人左右，GDP更高達18.4萬億美元。

????也許，在適當的幫助下，敘利亞的鄰國可以應付規模巨大的難民潮。但盡管西方已經向該地區提供了人道主義援助，但大家都覺得這些援助都力度不足。聯合國難民署估算，今年該地區的敘利亞難民需要超過45億美元的援助，而國際援助只有這個數字的37%。一些批評人士指出，難民放棄資源匱乏的難民營，到富裕的歐洲尋找新生活一點兒也不奇怪。

????當然，歐洲對接納難民猶疑不定也有一定的原因。比如說，沒有足夠能力來應付成千上萬尋求庇護的人；再比如說，安全顧慮，特別是在今年早些時候巴黎和哥本哈根發生恐怖襲擊之后。但有些反對聲音更多是基于民族主義和文化因素。在捷克、波蘭和斯洛伐克，數千抗議者走上街頭示威，反對移民并高呼反伊斯蘭教口號。他們打出的橫幅上寫著“回自己家去”和“伊斯蘭教意味著死亡”。匈牙利總理維克托?歐爾班就從宗教和文化角度反對接收穆斯林難民，還以16和17世紀奧斯曼帝國曾占領過匈牙利為引證。與之類似，斯洛伐克也決定只接納信奉基督教的敘利亞人。

????美國外交關系協會指出，歐盟各國無法攜手應對難民潮的局面和歐債危機期間的情況如出一轍，它們都把本國利益置于群體利益之上。

????不過，在這樣的氛圍中，幾乎還沒有人提到這些乘火車、卡車和木筏前往歐洲的移民和難民帶來的機遇。在這些打算進入歐洲的難民中，有一些是敘利亞中產階級成員，比如醫生、工程師和教師，他們或來自遭政府軍轟炸的阿勒頗，或來自受到IS恐怖威脅的地區。這些人給進入老齡化階段的歐洲大陸帶來了后者急需的活力和機會。

????歐盟委員會認為，老齡化是歐盟面臨的最大社會和經濟問題之一。到2025年，歐洲超過五分之一的人口將達到或超過65歲，這會給社會服務和醫療保健帶來極大壓力。

????年輕移民也許正是歐盟迫切需要的生力軍。同時，和約旦、土耳其或黎巴嫩不同，歐洲用于接納移民的資源要多得多。據美國CNBC報道，歐盟經濟和金融事務專員皮埃爾?莫斯科維奇表示，不應僅從成本角度來看待當前的移民和難民危機，還應將其視為機遇。

????莫斯科維奇說：“這也是一種資源，一種人力資源。我們這些國家需要移民……不應該像民粹主義者那樣只從不利的方面來看待其經濟影響。”

????《金融時報》同時報道，德國財長沃爾夫岡?朔伊布勒持有同樣的積極看法。他認為短期成本可控，長期來看則可能受益匪淺。一般來說，移民有益于勞動力市場。此外，經合組織以及德國歐洲經濟研究中心的一些研究論述認為，移民的貢獻超過了他們得到的服務。

????鑒于歐洲經濟復蘇乏力，盡管當前的難民危機令人悲痛，但它對歐洲的未來也許至關重要。至少，有數據可以支持這一點。不過，要平息席卷歐盟多國的恐慌潮，光有良好的數據還不夠。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????So much for sanctuary in Germany—at least for the moment. Over the weekend, the nation closed its borders, turning back refugees and halting Austrian trains carrying thousands of asylum seekers. The open-door policy of Europe’s largest economy has its limits: More than 13,000 refugees had flooded Munich on Saturday alone.

????The emergency order from the German government was a temporary move, according to Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere, an opportunity to handle the refugee influx in a more orderly fashion.

????However, the dramatic suspension of the borderless Schengen Zone—which allows passport-free movement among 26 European states—appears to have been contagious: Austria, Slovakia, and the Netherlands have followed suit; Hungary and the Czech Republic also increased border controls; and France, Poland, and Sweden are considering similar moves. More than 25 years after the Iron Curtain fell, the walls appear to be going back up.

????It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Germany has been expected to welcome 800,000 refugees this year, many from war-wracked Syria, making it the standout among Western developed countries. By contrast, the Obama Administration has pledged that the U.S. will resettle 10,000 Syrian asylum seekers, at least eventually: The process will almost certainly take years, given rigorous background check and security requirements. The panic gripping the EU appeared to accelerate after a meeting of interior ministers in Brussels on Monday failed to come up with a plan, deferring action to the member states.

????The refugee crisis presents yet another test for the idea of an integrated Europe. However, the real scope of the crisis is placed in some perspective by what poorer, less populous Middle Eastern states have been forced to accommodate—with far less fanfare—for years.

????Of the 4 million Syrians who’ve fled since their country’s civil war began in 2011, the vast majority have crowded into Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. Poor, arid Jordan hosts more than 600,000 refugees, who are sorely taxing housing markets and thirstily tapping the country’s rapidly declining water resources. Turkey’s refugee population has skyrocketed this year to almost 2 million. Worst off, perhaps, is tiny Lebanon: 1.1 million Syrians have joined a preexisting population of over 400,000 Palestinian asylum seekers. Today in Lebanon, roughly one in four people is a refugee.

????Syria’s neighbors lack the financial wherewithal to handle this burden: Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon have a combined population of 86 million and a nominal GDP of roughly $900 billion. As a point of comparison, the EU boasts a population of half a billion and a GDP of $18.4 trillion.

????Perhaps Syria’s neighbors could accommodate the region’s massive displacement, given proper help. But while humanitarian aid has flowed to the region from the West, by most accounts it is insufficient. According to UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, the humanitarian needs of the region’s displaced Syrians tops $4.5 billion this year. International donors have only pledged about 37% of that. Little wonder, say some critics, that refugees are abandoning under-resourced camps in search of a new life in wealthy Europe.

????Of course, there are reasons for Europe’s hesitation to take them: a lack of capacity to handle thousands of asylum seekers, for instance, and security concerns, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris and Copenhagen terrorist attacks earlier this year. But some of the opposition is more nationalist and cultural in flavor. In the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia, thousands of protesters have flocked to demonstrations, opposing migration and chanting anti-Islamic slogans. Banners read GO HOME and ISLAM IS DEATH. Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has opposed accepting Muslim refugees on religious and cultural grounds, citing his country’s occupation by the Ottoman Empire in the 16th and 17th centuries. Slovakia, similarly, has decided to only accept Christian Syrians.

????According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the bloc’s inability to craft a comprehensive response to the refugee influx echoes the dynamics of the European debt crisis, in which national interests have taken precedence over collective concerns.

????But in this current atmosphere, too little is made of the opportunity presented by the migrants and refugees heading to Europe by train, truck, and raft. Among the refugees attempting to get in are the remnants of Syria’s middle class: doctors, engineers, and teachers fleeing Assad’s barrel bombs in Aleppo, or the reign of terror ushered in by the Islamic State. They bring vitality and opportunity to an aging European continent that badly needs it.

????According to the European Commission, the graying of Europe is among the EU’s most serious social and economic challenges. More than one-fifth of Europeans will be 65 or older by 2025, placing great strain on social services and health care.

????Integrating young migrants could provide a much-needed demographic boost. And unlike Jordan, Turkey, or Lebanon, Europe has far more resources to integrate them. As reported by CNBC, Pierre Moscovici, European commissioner for economic and financial affairs, has stated that the current migration and refugee crisis should not just be seen in terms of cost, but opportunity.

????“It is also a resource—a human resource,” Moscovici said. “Our countries need migration … the economic impact should not just be looked at in a negative way as populists would have it.”

????According to the Financial Times, Wolfgang Sch?uble, Germany’s finance minister, takes a similarly warm view: The short-term costs are manageable, while the long-term benefits are potentially substantial. Migrants are, generally, a boon to labor markets. Moreover, they pay out more to the state than they take in services, according to separate pieces of research by the OECD and the Centre for European Economic Research.

????In light of Europe’s anemic economic recovery, the current refugee crisis, while founded in misery, may be vital to the EU’s future. The data, at least, are supportive. But in facing down the tide of panic that grips many EU states, good data may not be enough.