????中國央行最近下調(diào)了人民幣中間價(jià)，對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力的擔(dān)憂成為最近全球股市暴跌的誘因之一。

????此時(shí)似乎不宜考慮在中國進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張，但據(jù)報(bào)道，時(shí)代華納及其電影公司華納兄弟正有此意。《華爾街日報(bào)》8月28日稱，華納兄弟正在和華人文化產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金商討組建合資公司事宜，搭乘中國方興未艾的電影產(chǎn)業(yè)的東風(fēng)，在中國本土制作影片。華人文化產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金設(shè)在上海，有政府背景。

????華納兄弟發(fā)言人拒絕就報(bào)道發(fā)布評論。

????盡管中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正在滑坡，但中國的電影票房一路高歌猛進(jìn)，而華納兄弟可能與中國本土企業(yè)合作的消息傳出，恰逢這個(gè)當(dāng)口。娛樂行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Rentrak公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年年初以來中國消費(fèi)者用于觀看電影的支出約為42億美元，比上年同期上升了64%；去年也是中國電影票房的破紀(jì)錄之年。該機(jī)構(gòu)高級傳媒行業(yè)分析師保羅?德加拉貝迪安預(yù)計(jì)，中國可能在幾周內(nèi)就能打破去年46億美元的破紀(jì)錄票房（相比之下，北美電影票房去年下跌了5%以上，降至104億美元，但今年的票房有望首次突破110億美元）。

????德加拉貝迪安認(rèn)為，盡管中國的股市重挫和整體經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不明可能亮起了一些紅燈，但消費(fèi)者的娛樂支出通常不怎么受經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的影響。也就是說，經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟不太可能阻止中國觀眾走進(jìn)電影院。他還指出，今后幾年中國電影市場看漲，分析師預(yù)計(jì)，到2020年中國的電影總票房將超過美國，躍居全球首位。到2030年，中國的年度票房規(guī)模可能達(dá)到北美的兩倍。

????除了經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢欠佳，對瞄上中國市場的電影公司來說還存在另外一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。障礙之一是中國政府對電影行業(yè)的嚴(yán)格控制，比如每年的進(jìn)口影片配額。一些電影在中國攝制也許能讓美國電影公司繞開進(jìn)口配額，同時(shí)規(guī)避海外制作影片在中國發(fā)行的限制。受相關(guān)規(guī)定影響，7月1日就在美國上映的《終結(jié)者：創(chuàng)世紀(jì)》直到8月23日才登上中國的銀幕，但首日票房仍突破了2700萬美元。

????就算考慮到各種經(jīng)濟(jì)和監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但華納兄弟可能有意在中國設(shè)立合資公司，還是不會讓人感到意外。時(shí)代華納兩年前就和華人文化產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金聯(lián)合組建了一家公司，旨在投資于中國傳媒產(chǎn)業(yè)。

????對于在中國電影市場投資的公司，德加拉貝迪安說：“他們覺得潛在回報(bào)值得自己冒險(xiǎn)。”他對此持贊成態(tài)度：“如果不在中國市場賭一把，而它又像大家預(yù)計(jì)的那樣蓬勃發(fā)展起來，那就失去了一個(gè)大好機(jī)會，一個(gè)可以改變行業(yè)格局的機(jī)會。”

????中國人口眾多，電影票房一路飆升，從中看到投資潛力的美國公司不只時(shí)代華納一家。華人文化產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金已經(jīng)和動畫電影公司夢工廠建立了合資公司；其他美國電影公司也認(rèn)同了中國電影票房的重要性，它們加入部分電影情節(jié)或?qū)⒂捌瑪z制地改在中國，以更好地迎合中國觀眾。

????《華爾街日報(bào)》同時(shí)指出，在今年領(lǐng)跑中國票房的電影中，國產(chǎn)影片仍然占一半以上。這解釋了為什么美國電影公司會認(rèn)為不斷增長的中國電影市場釋放出了更多潛力。此外，想在中國的娛樂盛宴上分一杯羹的不僅僅是美國電影行業(yè)。華特迪士尼公司已經(jīng)為上海迪士尼樂園投入了數(shù)十億美元資金；流媒體視頻服務(wù)商奈飛也打算大舉進(jìn)軍中國市場，盡管中國電子商務(wù)龍頭企業(yè)阿里巴巴最近啟動的流媒體業(yè)務(wù)將成為奈飛的有力競爭對手。

????德加拉貝迪安認(rèn)為，中國電影市場已經(jīng)展現(xiàn)出了令人側(cè)目的增長速度，盡管眼下的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢確實(shí)存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但好萊塢在中國投資是正確舉措。“如果還有哪家美國電影公司對中國沒有想法，他們就得加油了。”他說。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????China’s government recently devalued the country’s currency, and fears over the country’s sluggish economic growth helped spur the past week’s massiveglobal stock selloff.

????It would seem to be a precarious time for companies thinking about expanding their businesses in China, but that’s exactly what Time Warner TWX 2.84% and its movie studio, Warner Bros., are reportedly planning. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Warner Bros. is in talks with China Media Capital, a government-backed investment fund based in Shanghai, about forming a joint venture that would make locally produced films to take advantage of China’s emerging movie industry.

????A Warner Bros. spokesman declined to comment on the Journal report.

????News of Warner Bros.’ potential local partnership in China comes at a time when Chinese box office grosses have surged, even as the country’s economy is tanking. Chinese consumers have spent roughly $4.2 billion on movie tickets so far this year — a 64% bump from this point last year in what was a record-breaking year for the movie industry in China, according to entertainment researcher Rentrak RENT 2.46% . Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Rentrak, said China could storm past last year’s record-setting mark of about $4.6 billion total gross in a matter of weeks. (By way of comparison, North American ticket sales declined more than 5% last year, to $10.4 billion, but are on pace to top $11 billion this year for the first time ever.)

????While China’s plunging stocks and general economic uncertainty may raise some red flags, Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Rentrak, notes that consumers’ entertainment spending is generally seen as somewhat recession-proof, meaning a struggling economy isn’t likely to keep China’s moviegoers away from theaters. He also points to the expected growth of China’s movie market in coming years, with analysts expecting the country to surpass the U.S. as the global box office leader by 2020. By 2030, Dergarabedian says, China’s annual ticket sales could be double that of the North American box office.

????There are other risks for studios looking at China beyond the current fragile state of the country’s economy. Another obstacle is the Chinese government’s strict control over the movie industry, including rules limiting the number of films that can be imported to China each year. Producing some films in China could allow Hollywood studios to avoid those import quotas as well as regulations that put an embargo on the release of films made outside of the country — a rule that caused Terminator Genisys, a film released in the U.S. on July 1, to not be released in China until last weekend, when it opened with more than $27 million.

????Even taking the various economic and regulatory risks into consideration, Warner Bros.’ interest in a potential joint venture would not be surprising. Time Warner already partnered with China Media Capital two years ago on a joint venture designed to invest in local media properties.

????“They feel the risk is worth the potential reward,” Dergarabedian says of companies investing in China’s movie market, adding that he agrees with the sentiment: “If you don’t bet on China and it flourishes in the way that we all think it will, then you’re missing out on a big bet. A game-changing bet.”

????Time Warner isn’t the only U.S. company to see the investment potential in China’s huge population and booming movie ticket sales. China Media Capital already has a joint venture with animation houseDreamWorks DWA 2.54% , and other studios have acknowledged the importance of China’s box office byaltering certain aspects of their films’ plots or filming locations to better endear the end-product to the Chinese market.

????At the same time, locally produced films still comprise more than half of this year’s top-grossing films in China, according to the Wall Street Journal, which shows why a Hollywood studio would still see even more unlocked potential in the country’s growing movie market. And movie studios aren’t the only businesses battling over China’s entertainment dollar. Walt Disney DIS 3.66% has pumped billions into its Shanghai Disneyland Resort, and video streaming company Netflix NFLX 8.98% has big plans for aneventual launch in China, though it will face steep competition from a streaming service recently launched by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba BABA 0.13% .

????With the impressive growth China’s movie market has already shown, Dergarabedian believes Hollywood is right to put down stakes there, even if the current economic situation does pose a risk. “If every studio doesn’t have some sort of plan for China,” he says, “they should.”