????當前正是商業(yè)空間探索領域行情看漲的時候。過去5年里，該行業(yè)整體增長了6倍多，目前業(yè)內已有800多家公司。根據(jù)CB Insights公司提供的數(shù)據(jù)，該領域的交易活動已經(jīng)連續(xù)3年直線增加。2015年上半年，空間探索領域完成的交易數(shù)量和投資數(shù)額都達到4年新高。（這在很大程度上歸功于SpaceX公司今年1月獲得的10億美元D輪融資。）

????大多數(shù)投資都流向了以埃隆·馬斯克的SpaceX公司為代表的私人航天發(fā)射行業(yè)。隨著新型小型衛(wèi)星技術的成熟，從空間軌道獲取新數(shù)據(jù)的前景吸引越來越多的知名風投機構和《財富》500強企業(yè)投身衛(wèi)星行業(yè)。其實，自從上世紀九十年代幾家衛(wèi)星通訊公司相繼倒閉以來，很多投資人都認為這個行業(yè)對資本要求太高，風險太大。

????不過在許多因素的共同作用下，投資人近年來對小型衛(wèi)星（一般指重量在500公斤以下的衛(wèi)星）的興趣逐漸升溫。由于許多原本龐大笨重的衛(wèi)星部件日趨小型甚至微型化，很多部件已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)標準化等因素，小型衛(wèi)星的成本已經(jīng)顯著下降。這使得建造、發(fā)射和運營“小衛(wèi)星”甚至“小衛(wèi)星星群”，變得越來越具有可行性。

????地圖成像衛(wèi)星服務商行星實驗室公司聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼CEO威爾·馬修認為，就該領域的投資而言，也有心理因素在起作用。“這個領域突然達到了一個臨界點，有些人出了一些賭注并且成功了。投資界也認識到了這一點，投資人樂于見到一些早期參與者獲得成功。在某種意義上，某些早期參與者在這個空間探索的復興時期所做出的成績，的確使得投資人更傾向于往這個領域投錢。”

????行星實驗室就是空間探索復興時期的早期參與者之一。該公司成立于2010年，目前已有36顆在軌衛(wèi)星，其中每顆衛(wèi)星都能以3到5米的分辨率進行地面成像。該公司目前的付費用戶越來越多，他們都想獲得能夠定期更新的地球特定區(qū)域的影像。

????行星室實驗并非唯一一家在小型衛(wèi)星領域取得成功的公司。像Digital Globe、O3B和去年剛被谷歌以5億美元收購的Skybox等公司，都擁有一批在軌的小型衛(wèi)星，同時也有很多客戶排隊購買他們的衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)和其它服務。這些公司的成功，再加上天基互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務的巨大潛力以及衛(wèi)星的實時成像能力，使很多投資人和潛在客戶對該行業(yè)的發(fā)展?jié)摿ι钚挪灰?。因此，隨著SpaceX等公司證明商業(yè)航天的成本可以大幅降低并且越來越具有可行性，越來越多的公司加入其中。

????投資者們真正看重的，其實是必將與一系列軌道技術融合的大數(shù)據(jù)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和全球市場情報?？臻g行業(yè)分析機構NewSpace Global的CEO兼聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人理查德·羅克特指出：“真正讓很多投資者興奮的其實是數(shù)據(jù)——也就是軟件和服務，而不是基礎設施本身或衛(wèi)星本身?！?/p>

????目前，小型衛(wèi)星領域的服務主要分為兩大類，一類是天基互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，一類是高清地球成像。有些人將可靠的天基互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務比喻為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的重生。小型衛(wèi)星提供的技術，能令新的人群和區(qū)域市場進入基于網(wǎng)絡的全球市場，催生新的業(yè)務模式。（Facebook上周發(fā)布的太陽能寬帶聯(lián)網(wǎng)無人機也是為這個目的設計的。）另外，接近實時（或達到真正實時）的衛(wèi)星成像，也使得跨國企業(yè)能夠實時監(jiān)控它們的所有資產(chǎn)，同時也能為企業(yè)、政府或其他國際金融市場弄潮兒提供高清可視的數(shù)據(jù)。

????硅谷風投機構Draper Fisher Jurvetson公司的合伙人史蒂夫·尤爾韋特松表示：“這是一個非常巨大的機會，并且具有極其吸引人的經(jīng)濟價值。將有一大波企業(yè)在這些數(shù)據(jù)流的基礎上構建起來，或者成為這些小型衛(wèi)星公司的附庸?！?Draper Fisher Jurvetson公司也是SpaceX和行星實驗室的早期投資人。

????尤爾韋特松指出，空間相關業(yè)務的前期投資是非常高的，但它的發(fā)展空間幾乎也是其他任何行業(yè)都無法比擬的?！跋啾绕渌袠I(yè)，我從沒看到過這樣巨大的利潤增長空間。人們都認為一家創(chuàng)業(yè)公司要有10倍的利潤空間才值得投資，你很少見到一個企業(yè)家能實現(xiàn)100倍的利潤增長。但在空間行業(yè)，我們見過1000倍甚至10000倍的利潤增長?！?/p>

????尤爾韋特松表示，這種增長解釋了為什么大量技術人才正涌向空間探索領域，同時也表明現(xiàn)有公司是多么不完美。這兩種因素使得這個市場有很大的空間讓靈活的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司進入其中，并攫取市場份額。

????據(jù)NewSpace Global公司的羅克特稱，過去10年間，約有25億美元的資金被投在了小型衛(wèi)星領域，而其中近半數(shù)投資都是在過去12個月中做出的。今年1月，谷歌和富達國際投資宣布對SpaceX投資10億美元，幫助該公司建立自己的天基互聯(lián)網(wǎng)衛(wèi)星。在同一個月份，一家名叫OneWeb的新晉公司宣布，該公司也將向地球軌道發(fā)射648顆能向地面提供互聯(lián)網(wǎng)接入服務的小型衛(wèi)星。（該項目預計耗資20億美元，預計將從2018年開始發(fā)射，而且這筆資金還未算入上文提到的25億美元之內。）

????在創(chuàng)業(yè)公司方面，Spire和BlackSky Blobal等公司去年分別獲得柏尚投資、Lemnos Labs、RRE Ventures和Vulcan Capital等風投機構數(shù)千萬美元的投資——要拉到這種規(guī)模的投資，在幾年前還是很難的。Spaceflight Industries 公司CEO杰森·安德魯斯表示，BlackSky公司稱其將發(fā)射一組地球成像衛(wèi)星，以更低的價格提供比現(xiàn)有服務頻率更高的地球影像。而Spire公司則將提供一系列數(shù)據(jù)服務，其中最值得注意的一項服務，是提供全球船只的實時海事追蹤，以及相關的天氣數(shù)據(jù)。

????投資者們都希望，在短短幾年內，來自小型衛(wèi)星的數(shù)據(jù)將開始影響全球的商業(yè)模式。企業(yè)投資者也沒有忽視這一點。羅克特指出，很多企業(yè)認為實時成像數(shù)據(jù)和更好的天氣及資產(chǎn)追蹤能力是一種不容忽視的競爭優(yōu)勢。包括空中客車、哈里斯公司、聯(lián)邦快遞及谷歌在內的許多大公司都向小型衛(wèi)星技術進行了投資。對于這些公司來說，投資小型衛(wèi)星技術不僅是為了投資“下一個大事件”，同時也是為了讓他們現(xiàn)有的收入流繼續(xù)保持競爭力。

????羅克特表示：“不管他們的業(yè)務模式是什么，這些《財富》500強公司如果忽略了小型衛(wèi)星正在做什么（比如地球成像、提供通訊服務或互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務），他們就將在未來十年的財富變遷中站錯隊。向小型衛(wèi)星投資的《財富》500強企業(yè)并不算特別多，這不是一種非理性繁榮。這個數(shù)字正在增長，我們預計這種增長勢頭還將繼續(xù)?！?/p>

????羅克特指出，在短期內，對小型衛(wèi)星產(chǎn)業(yè)威脅最大的因素并非來自行業(yè)本身，而是來自這些衛(wèi)星的入軌方式。今年6月28日，載有8顆行星實驗室成像衛(wèi)星的SpaceX獵鷹9號火箭發(fā)射失敗，再次提醒了整個行業(yè)：太空探索仍然是一項有風險的業(yè)務。如果火箭發(fā)射行業(yè)不能比現(xiàn)在發(fā)射得更頻繁、更可靠，那么它無疑將成為扼制某些小型衛(wèi)星資產(chǎn)發(fā)展的瓶頸。

????羅克特表示：“我們認為，未來幾年，還將有數(shù)十億美元資金被投入到小型衛(wèi)星領域。但如果火箭的發(fā)射速度沒有顯著提高，沒有更多可運營的新發(fā)射工具出現(xiàn)，這一領域發(fā)展就會陷入停滯。投資者將無法收回期望的回報，投資也將會減速?！?span>（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????審校：任文科

????It’s a bullish time to be in the commercial space business these days. The industry as a whole has grown more than sixfold in the last five years to include more than 800 companies. Deal activity has increased for three years straight, according to data published by CB Insights. In the first half of 2015 the industry hit four-year highs both in terms of deals completed and dollars invested (driven largely by a $1 billion Series D funding round for SpaceX in January).

????Most of that investment has been swallowed up by a private space launch industry anchored by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The allure of new data streams from orbit (powered by a new breed smaller satellite technologies) has lured an increasingly prestigious roster of venture capital firms and Fortune 500 companies toward the satellite industry. It’s an industry long considered too capital-intensive and risky for many investors since a late-‘90s collapse of several satellite communication companies.

????Interest in small satellites—typically defined as those under 500 kilograms (1,100 pounds)—has grown over the years based on a number of factors working in tandem: The miniaturization of once-bulky satellite components, standardization of many satellite parts, and other factors have trimmed costs substantially. That has made the building, launching, and operation of “smallsat” constellations increasingly feasible.

????When it comes to investment, there’s also a psychological factor at play, says Will Marshall, co-founder and CEO of earth imaging satellite service Planet Labs. “There’s a sudden threshold that’s been reached,” Marshall says. “Some people made some bets and won. Investment is recognizing that, and investors like to see some early players succeed. In some sense, some of the early players in the space renaissance have made it easier for investors to get their heads around it.”

????Planet Labs is one of those early players in the newspace renaissance. Founded in 2010, the company has a constellation of 36 small satellites in orbit, each of which is capable of imaging the earth at three to five meters resolution. The company now has a growing stable of paying customers eager to get their hands on regularly refreshed satellite imagery of specific parts of the planet.

????Planet Labs isn’t the only smallsat success story. Companies like Digital Globe, O3B, and Skybox—which was acquired by Google GOOGL -0.52% last year for $500 million—have all put small satellites in orbit while lining up customers for data and other services those satellites provide. Their relative success coupled with the vast potential for space-based Internet services and real-time satellite imaging has made believers out of many investors and potential customers alike. As a result, the industry has pulled in more as companies like SpaceX prove commercial access to space can be less expensive, and increasingly feasible.

????What investors are betting on is nothing short of the future of big data, the Internet, and global market intelligence all rolled into a suite of orbital technologies. “What’s driving a lot of the excitement in the eyes of investors is really ones and zeros—it’s software, it’s services,” says Richard Rocket, CEO and co-founder of space industry analysis firm NewSpace Global. “It’s not so much the infrastructure itself, or the satellites themselves.”

????Right now those services fall into two main categories: space-based Internet and high-resolution earth imaging. Some have likened the advent of reliable, space-based Internet service as a second coming of the first Internet boom. Smallsats would provide technology capable of plugging new people and markets into the global web-based marketplace and enabling new business models (Facebook last week unveiled a solar-powered, broadband-beaming drone aircraft designed for the same purpose). Likewise, near-real time (or even real time) satellite imagery would allow global corporations to monitor all their assets at the same time and generate high-resolution visual data for individual companies, governments, or those trading on global financial markets.

????“It’s a really, really big opportunity with very attractive economics,” says Steve Jurvetson, a partner at Silicon Valley venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson. The firm was an early investor in both SpaceX and Planet Labs. “There will be a whole other wave of businesses that build on the data streams or are ancillary to these smallsat companies.”

????The upfront capital investment in space-related businesses is high, Jurvetson adds, but the amount of room to run is virtually unparalleled in any other industry. “Compared to other industries, I have never seen such an enormous margin for improvement. There’s this canonical thing about a startup needing to pitch a 10X improvement to be a worthwhile investment. You rarely see an entrepreneur pitch a 100X improvement. But in space we’ve seen 1,000X, and really we’ve seen 10,000X.”

????That growth is a testament to the huge amount of technical talent flowing into the newspace industry, and a sign of how imperfect the incumbents are, Jurvetson says. Those two ingredients make for a market in which nimble startups have a lot of space to move in and grab market share.

????Over the past decade, roughly $2.5 billion has been invested in small satellites, NewSpace Global’s Rocket says; nearly half of that amount has come into play in the last 12 months. In January, Google and Fidelity announced a $1 billion investment in SpaceX to help the company build out its own constellation of Internet-beaming satellites. That same month, newcomer OneWeb announced that it would likewise put in orbit a constellation of 648 smallsats capable of supplying Internet to points on the ground below (the estimated $2 billion project, set to begin launching in 2018, is not accounted for in NewSpace’s $2.5 billion number cited above).

????On the startup side, companies like Spire and BlackSky Global have in the past year gathered tens of millions in venture cash from the likes of Bessemer Venture Partners, Lemnos Labs, RRE Ventures, and Vulcan Capital—investments that would’ve been hard to come by just a few years ago. BlackSky promises an earth imaging constellation that will deliver imagery more frequently than existing services do at a lower price point, Spaceflight Industries CEO Jason Andrews says. Spire will offer a range of data services, most notably real-time maritime tracking of ships anywhere in the world and relevant weather data.

????These investors are banking on the idea that in just a few years data from smallsats will begin impacting business models around the world. It’s a fact not lost on corporate investors either. Many see real-time imaging data as well as better weather and asset tracking as potential competitive edges they can’t afford to ignore, Rocket says. Investment in smallsat technologies and companies is also coming from global corporations like Airbus EADSY -1.37% , Harris Co. HRS -0.01% , FedEx FDX -0.42% , and—of course—Google. For these companies, it’s not just about investing in the next big thing, but investing in keeping their existing revenue streams competitive.

????“Almost regardless of business model, those Fortune 500s today who ignore what smallsats are doing … (i.e. earth imaging, providing communications or Internet services) they’re going to be on the wrong end of financial evolution in the next decade,” Rocket says. “The number of Fortune 500s that are putting money into small satellites—it’s not an alarming rate, it’s not irrational exuberance, but it’s an increasing rate that we expect to continue.”

????The greatest potential land mine threatening the smallsat boom in the near term has little to do with the smallsat industry itself and much to do with how those satellites get to orbit, Rocket says. The June 28 launch failure of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket—one which was carrying 8 Planet Labs imaging satellites—reminded the industry that space is still a risky business. If the launch industry can’t begin launching more frequently and more reliably than it is now, there could be a bottleneck that would trap some of these smallsat assets on the ground.

????“In the next couple of years we predict that billions will continue to be invested in smallsats,” Rocket says. “But if we do not see launches happening at a much higher rate than it is now—and more of these launch vehicles coming online and becoming operational—we’ll see a stalling. Investors won’t get the returns they want, and investment will slow down.”