????經(jīng)歷了中國(guó)政府反鋪張浪費(fèi)的沖擊和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的持續(xù)影響，競(jìng)逐中國(guó)這個(gè)全球第二大奢侈品市場(chǎng)的西方品牌又面臨新的增長(zhǎng)阻力：中國(guó)央行本周二（8月11日）意外將人民幣匯率中間價(jià)下調(diào)2%，單日降幅創(chuàng)十年新高。

????從普拉達(dá)、寶馬、Coach到蒂凡尼，對(duì)各類高端品牌而言，中國(guó)近些年都是其重要的盈利增長(zhǎng)源，削弱了歐洲、美國(guó)這類成熟市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩帶來(lái)的影響。其中美國(guó)市場(chǎng)放緩的幅度較小，仍是全球頭號(hào)奢侈品市場(chǎng)。（兩年前中國(guó)超越日本，坐上全球奢侈品市場(chǎng)的第二把交椅。）

????人民幣貶值意味著，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者在購(gòu)買國(guó)外商品時(shí)要花更多的人民幣。而更讓國(guó)際品牌擔(dān)憂的是，它也可能抑制中國(guó)民眾赴日本、法國(guó)或美國(guó)境外旅游的熱情。中國(guó)游客喜歡在海外購(gòu)買鱷魚皮包、金表等各類奢侈品。摩根士丹利新近的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者一半以上的奢侈品購(gòu)買行為都發(fā)生在大中華區(qū)以外地區(qū)。去年，中國(guó)游客海外游的消費(fèi)額達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的5000億美元。

????歐洲股市已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)出了上述擔(dān)憂，意大利頂級(jí)奢侈品牌Salvatore Ferragamo和Tod’s、法國(guó)奢侈品集團(tuán)LVMH、卡地亞的母公司開(kāi)云集團(tuán)等一批奢侈品企業(yè)的股價(jià)劇跌。在美國(guó)，Coach和蒂凡尼這類奢侈品公司股價(jià)同樣回落，盡管跌幅較輕微。

????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行對(duì)奢侈品行業(yè)的負(fù)面影響已經(jīng)持續(xù)了一段時(shí)間：全球管理咨詢公司貝恩的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2014年，中國(guó)內(nèi)地奢侈品市場(chǎng)規(guī)模降至人民幣1150億元（約合180億美元），實(shí)際上較2013年萎縮了1%。這部分源于中國(guó)政府抵制企業(yè)贈(zèng)送高價(jià)手表和香檳的行動(dòng)，政府將這些贈(zèng)禮視為賄賂。今年5月，貝恩預(yù)計(jì)，今年中國(guó)的奢侈品市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將收縮4%，消費(fèi)者會(huì)對(duì)價(jià)格越來(lái)越敏感。這還是在人民幣此次貶值以前的預(yù)測(cè)。

????對(duì)于Coach這樣的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)疲弱是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。它在美國(guó)的業(yè)務(wù)正經(jīng)歷大滑坡，2014財(cái)年銷售額銳減了20%。該公司預(yù)計(jì)，2015財(cái)年，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的年銷售額將增至6億美元，約占財(cái)年總銷售額的14%。因此，如果延續(xù)上季度在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的疲態(tài)，可比銷售額（去除新開(kāi)或者關(guān)閉門店影響后）繼續(xù)下滑，對(duì)Coach來(lái)說(shuō)恐怕難以承受。

????考慮到中國(guó)消費(fèi)者更熱衷于海外購(gòu)物的行為偏好，人民幣貶值將給奢侈品牌帶來(lái)雙重打擊。（上周Coach表示，日本市場(chǎng)之所以銷售大旺，很大程度上要?dú)w功于當(dāng)?shù)赜咳氪罅恐袊?guó)游客。）

????當(dāng)前的人民幣貶值會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)人的奢侈品消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生多大影響，還有待觀察。但有一件事可以讓西方奢侈品牌略感安慰：中國(guó)的高凈值人群正在迅速增長(zhǎng)。同樣來(lái)自貝恩的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年，資產(chǎn)凈值達(dá)到人民幣1000萬(wàn)元（約合160萬(wàn)美元）以上的中國(guó)公民增至100萬(wàn)人，人數(shù)是四年前的兩倍。這部分中國(guó)“1%”人群消減開(kāi)銷的可能性較小。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Pessy

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????Already reeling from a Chinese government crackdown on conspicuous spending and a slowing economy there, Western brands face a new obstacle to growth in the second largest luxury market in the world to contend with: a surprise 2% devaluation of China’s yuan on Tuesday, its biggest one-day move in a decade.

????For high-end brands from Prada and BMW to Coach COH -1.30% and Tiffany & Co TIF -2.10% , China has in recent years been a key source of growth, helping them mitigate slowing growth in mature markets like Europe and to a lesser extent the United States, still the largest luxury market. (China surpassed Japan as the #2 luxe market two years ago.)

????The devaluation means that foreign goods become pricier for Chinese consumers in their own currency, but more worryingly, it is also likely to curb Chinese tourism to places like Japan, France and the United States, where many prefer to buy their alligator-skin handbags or gold watches anyway. A recent Morgan Stanley study found that more than half of sales made to China’s luxury consumers happen outside of greater China. Last year, Chinese tourists spent a record $500 billion on overseas vacations.

????In Europe, shares of a slew of companies, including Salvatore Ferragamo, Tod’s, LVMH and Cartier parent Kering reflected those worries, falling sharply, while U.S. companies Coach and Tiffany were down too, though only slightly.

????The slowdown in China’s economy has been weighing on the luxury sector for some time: in 2014, the high-end goods market actually shrank 1% to 115 billion Renminbi ($18 billion), according to Bain & Co. Some of that also stemmed from a crackdown on corporate gift-giving of super pricey watches and champagne deemed to be bribery by Chinese government. In May, Bain said that it expected China’s luxury market to contract by as much as 4% this year, with shoppers growing more price sensitive. And that was before the latest news.

????For a company like Coach, a weak China is a big problem. With its U.S. business collapsing (20% drop last fiscal year), the leather-goods maker has seen its China sales grow to $600 million a year, or 14% of sales for fiscal 2015. So it can ill afford to see comparable sales (which strip out the impact of new or closed stores) continue to fall, as they did in China last quarter.

????It is also a double whammy because of how Chinese consumers often spend more on vacation abroad. (Coach said last week that an uptick in Japan sales had a lot to do with an influx of visitors there.)

????While it remains to be seen how much of a dent the current movement will have on luxury spending by the Chinese, luxe brands can take solace in one thing: the ranks of China’s high net worth individuals is swelling. According to Bain, the number of Chinese with a net worth of at least 10 million renminbi ($1.6 million) hit 1 million last year, double what it was just four years ago. And China’s 1% is much less likely to cut back on spending.