????“Square到底怎么了？”

????“這家公司似乎迷失了方向。”

????“Square能成功嗎？”

????這些都是風投界和科技界人士去年跟我談起Square時發表的評論。Square是由Twitter聯合創始人杰克·多爾西在硅谷創辦的一家支付公司。

????上周五有報道稱，Square公司已經秘密提交首次公開募股申請，風投界和科技界的困惑終于獲得了部分答案。據彭博社報道，Square根據《促進新興企業法案》(JOBS Act)申請上市，該法案允許營收在10億美元以下的公司秘密申請IPO。據了解該公司上市計劃的知情人士透露，Square預計在今年秋天進行IPO，不過也有可能推遲上市日期。

????一位投行人士告訴《財富》：“聽到他們申請IPO的消息，我深感震驚，我還以為它們在為生存而掙扎呢。”

????和以往的報道截然相反，有跡象表明Square的營收將迅猛增長。接近該公司的一位消息人士聲稱，Square目前的營收增速是支付巨頭PayPal的3到4倍，后者剛剛從eBay剝離并上市。在2015年第二季度，PayPal的營收飆漲16%，達到23億美元。如果這位消息人士所言不虛，那么Square目前的年收入增長率至少在50%以上。（Square的一位發言人拒絕就此發表評論。）Visa集團戰略合作與創新常務副總裁吉姆·麥卡錫最近對《財富》表示，Square現在已經是Visa信用卡交易系統中排名前十的商家。值得一提的是，Visa曾在2011年向Square進行了一筆戰略投資。

????崛起

????在不久前接受《財富》采訪時，知名投資人馬克·安德森對eBay剝離PayPal后前景表示擔憂，他認為創業公司在硅谷有點被“過度美化”了。

????“我們過于推崇那些可愛的年輕創業者。”他說。

????Square也可能是這種心態的受害者之一。2009年，因失去CEO職務而離開Twitter的杰克·多爾西，推出了一個造型時尚，可連接移動設備的白色信用卡讀卡器。這樣一來，任何iPhone或安卓智能手機用戶都能夠接受信用卡支付。幾家硅谷頂級風投機構，比如Khosla Ventures、紅杉資本和Kleiner Perkins，都向Square注入了資金。（就連維珍集團創始人理查德·布蘭森也是該公司的投資者。）坐擁大量現金的Square吸引了基思·拉波伊斯、梅根·奎因、薩拉·弗里亞爾、戈庫爾·拉賈拉姆等硅谷最有才華的運營專家、產品經理和工程師。

????各路媒體記者，包括筆者本人在內，都不遺巨細地報道該公司取得的每一項成就。人們常把Square比作下一個蘋果，并將多爾西比作下一個喬布斯。Square還與《財富》500強企業達成了一些高調的合作，比如2012年，該公司與咖啡巨頭星巴克結成戰略伙伴關系。這筆交易也使星巴克CEO霍華德·舒爾茨成為Square的董事會成員。到2013年11月，《華爾街日報》報道稱，Square正在與高盛等頂級投行探索IPO的可行性。

????衰落

????但沒過多久，這家創業公司就星光黯淡了。

????首先遭受打擊的，是多爾西本人的聲譽。在2013年年末發布《孵化Twitter》一書，作家尼爾·比爾頓記錄了Twitter的創業故事。該書聲稱，多爾西無力讓該公司的文化和技術趨于穩定。2014年，有媒體報道稱，Square已經于年初推遲IPO，正在謀求將公司出售，并稱Square已與蘋果、谷歌和eBay展開洽談。一篇《華爾街日報》的報道斷言，Square正在賠錢——2013年的虧損額約為1億美元，大于該公司2012年發布的虧損數額。這篇報道還指出，Square的利潤正在縮水。雖然Square激烈否認了收購傳言（有些傳說中的買家也否認了傳言），并對這篇報道予以駁斥，但其核心產品的前景顯然不是很樂觀，尤其是那些直接面對消費者的產品。

????2014年，由于移動錢包產品Wallet沒能獲得目標用戶的青睞，Square只得將其關閉。鑒于Square與星巴克的合作正是讓用戶通過這款應用進行支付，Wallet的關停也意味著這項合作無疾而終（盡管Square仍然為星巴克提供支付服務）。今年年初，Square又關掉了一款能讓人們直接從餐館訂餐的移動應用Order。同時，Square不再讓多爾西接受媒體采訪，并減少了他在各大科技峰會上的露面。業內一時傳言四起：Square是不是出了什么問題？

????“What’s really going on at Square?”

????“The company seems lost.”

????“Can Square live up to the hype?”

????These were all comments made to me over the last year by venture capitalists and people in the technology industry about Square, the Silicon Valley payments company founded by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey.

????The industry got part of the answer to this confusion on Friday when reports surfaced that Square had confidentially filed to make a public offering. As Bloomberg reported, Square filed to go public under the JOBS Act, which allows companies with less than $1 billion in revenue to privately file for an IPO. Sources familiar with the company’s plans say that Square expects its IPO to take place this fall but has the option to delay it.

????One investment banker told Fortune: “I was shocked when I learned they filed. I thought they were struggling.”

????Contrary to past reports, signs suggest that Square’s revenue will grow. According to one source close to the company, Square’s revenue is growing three to four times faster than payments giant PayPal PYPL 0.65% , which just went public after spinning off from eBay. In the second quarter of 2015, PayPal saw revenue jump 16% to $2.3 billion. If sources close to the company are correct, Square’s revenue is growing at least 50% year over year. (A spokesperson for Square declined to comment.) Jim McCarthy, executive vice president of strategic partnerships and innovation at Visa, recently told Fortune that Square is a top 10 merchant on Visa’s credit card processing system. It’s also worth noting that Visa made a strategic investment in Square in 2011.

????The rise

????In a recent, separate interview regarding eBay’s future without PayPal, investor Marc Andreessen told Fortune that startups are “over-glorified” in the Valley.

????“We venerate the new, cute young upstart,” he said.

????Square may have been a victim of that mindset. The company’s hype cycle began in 2009 when Dorsey, who had left Twitter after being pushed out of the CEO role, introduced a sleek, white credit-card reader that plugged into a mobile device to allow anyone with an iPhone or Android smartphone to accept credit card payments. Top venture capital firms on Silicon Valley’s Sand Hill Road poured money into the company, including Khosla Ventures, Sequoia Capital, and Kleiner Perkins. (Even Virgin Group founder Sir Richard Branson invested.) Flush with cash, Square was able to attract some of the Valley’s most talented operators, product managers, and engineers, including Keith Rabois, Megan Quinn, Sarah Friar, and Gokul Rajaram.

????Members of the press, including this reporter, chronicled every step the company made. Square was often likened to the next Apple (and Dorsey, the next Steve Jobs). Square scored several high-profile partnerships with Fortune 500 companies, including a 2012 deal with coffee giant Starbucks SBUX -0.22% , which put that company’s CEO, Howard Schultz, on Square’s board of directors. By November 2013, the Wall Street Journal reported that Square was exploring an IPO with top-tier investment banks such as Goldman Sachs.

????The fall

????It didn’t take long for the early sheen of startup success to wear off.

????The first blow came to Dorsey’s reputation with the late 2013 release of writer Nick Bilton’s book Hatching Twitter, which chronicled the story of Twitter and characterized Dorsey as unable to stabilize the company’s culture and technology. The next round came with news reports in 2014 that Twitter had postponed its IPO earlier in the year, was looking for a seller, and had engaged in discussions with Apple, Google, and eBay. A Journal report asserted that Square was bleeding money—roughly $100 million in 2013, a figure that was larger than the loss the company posted in 2012. Additionally, the report said that Square’s margins were shrinking. Though Square vehemently denied the acquisition talks (as did some of the acquirers) and rejected the report, all was not rosy with the company’s core products, especially those that were consumer-facing.

????In 2014, Square shut down Wallet, its mobile wallet product for consumers, after it failed to gain traction with its intended audience. With Wallet’s demise went Square’s Starbucks partnership that allowed people to pay for their coffee using the app (though the company continues to process payments for Starbucks). Earlier this year Square shut down Order, an app that allowed people to get order food from restaurants. Meanwhile Square resisted making Dorsey available for interviews with the press and reduced his on-stage appearances on the tech conference circuit. Speculation abound: Was something amiss at Square?