????對于微軟來說，周三（7月29日）最新發布的Windows10操作系統可謂萬眾期待。上一個版本windows 8曾對操作界面進行了大量改動，并飽受批評。與此同時，微軟大膽挺近手機市場也尚未獲得回報。對于微軟首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉來說，若想完成2019年“Windows裝備10億臺設備”的目標，那么Windows10必須大獲成功。

????不過，納德拉已經有一個巨大的起跑優勢。雖然蘋果的產品可能吸引媒體的更多關注，但是根據分析網站NetMarketShare2015年6月的估算數據，如圖所示，每10臺電腦桌面中，有9臺使用的都是Windows操作系統，再加上Windows 7和8（微軟跳過了windows9）的用戶可以免費升級至Windows 10，所以Windows10 可能會很快占據桌面操作系統的市場份額。

????據調研公司IDC的數據分析，Windows10能否推進微軟的桌面電腦業務是值得懷疑的。即便在新興國家，目前桌面個人電腦市場也已經達到飽和。在發達國家，這個市場已經太過擁擠，而世界范圍內的個人電腦銷量預計在2015年將會下跌5%。IDC全球個人電腦追蹤部門副總裁勞倫·拉夫德在一份報告中表示，“有沒有長期發展的機會要看新興市場經濟的恢復和增長，但隨著消費轉向移動設備領域，我們覺得這樣的可能性并不大。”

????那么可用于平板和手機的Windows 10，能否幫助微軟挺入手機市場？微軟為了吸引手機應用開發商，把windows 10做得更加便于應用開發，并支持在各種設備上使用。從這點上來看，微軟還是有一定希望。

????然而看看公司的成績，結果似乎并不令人滿意：作為微軟目前的手機應用系統，2010年發布的Windows Phone至今還未獲得良好的市場份額。同時，微軟試圖在智能手機領域攻城略地的上一次發力，是在2014年以72億美元收購諾基亞，這筆手機業務資產最近被減計。而在微軟近日公布業績慘淡的2015財年第四季度報告前幾周，納德拉就在本月早些時候隱晦地承認了諾基亞收購計劃“并沒有奏效”。

????而最終，無論如何努力，也許移動領域天生不是微軟所長。正如下圖數據顯示的，Windows phone只占到手機操作系統市場份額的2%。因此，要想與谷歌安卓及蘋果IOS系統并駕齊驅，微軟也還有很長一段路要走，而這絕對也是2019年之后的事了。（財富中文網）

????譯者：馮豐

????校對：詹妮

????For Microsoft, there’s a lot riding on its new Windows 10 operating system, out Wednesday. Its last attempt, Windows 8, was met with criticism over a massive interface redesign, while Microsoft’s MSFT 2.10% ventures into the mobile market have yet to bear fruit. If Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is to meet his goal of hitting 1 billion Windows-powered devices by 2019, he needs Windows 10 to be a hit.

????But Nadella has a huge advantage from the starting gate. While Apple’s offerings may get more media attention, a whopping 9 in 10 desktops are running Windows operating systems, as shown in the chart below, which uses June 2015 estimates by web analytics site NetMarketShare. Given that Windows 10 is a free upgrade for Windows 7 and 8 users (Microsoft skipped “Windows 9″), it’s reasonable to expect Windows 10 to gain desktop OS market share very quickly.

????Whether Windows 10 can push Microsoft’s desktop business any further is questionable, according to research firm IDC. Desktop PC markets are saturated even in emerging countries — they’re practically overflowing in developed areas — while worldwide PC shipments expected to fall about 5% in 2015. “Any opportunity for long-term growth depends on reviving growth in emerging regions, and that seems unlikely with the shift toward mobile devices,” said Loren Loverde, IDC’s VP of worldwide PC trackers, in a report.

????So can Windows 10, which also works on tablets and mobile phones, help Microsoft break into mobile market? There’s some hope, given Microsoft’s efforts to attract app developers for Windows 10 by making it easier to code apps that will work across devices.

????But the company’s track record isn’t exactly great: Microsoft’s current mobile OS, Windows Phone, launched in 2010, hasn’t gained any significant market share. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s last big attempt at becoming a major smartphone player — a $7.2 billion acquisition of Nokia in 2014 the company recently wrote down — is “not working,” Nadella subtly admitted earlier this month, just weeks Microsoft’s disastrous Q4 2015 earnings report.

????At the end of the day, perhaps mobile just isn’t in Microsoft’s blood, no matter how hard the company tries. As shown in the chart below, Windows Phone holds only about 2% of mobile OS market share. And there’s a long ways to go — certainly beyond 2019 — before Microsoft can stand next to Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS.