許多人愿意花一大筆錢，請咨詢專家預測未來的科技趨勢。你可以這樣做，也可以用一本新書的價格，從麥肯錫全球研究所的內部智庫得到同樣的預測。這本書名為《大顛覆：全球四大力量正在打破所有的趨勢》，作者為麥肯錫董事理查德·多布斯、詹姆斯·馬尼卡和華強森。這本書將幫助你深入了解未來幾十年對商業世界影響最大的科技發展趨勢。我們在下文列出了他們給出的“12個最具顛覆性的科技趨勢”。作者們相信，這些科技最有潛力改變當今的商業圖景。

People pay plenty of money for consulting giants to help them figure out which technology trends are fads and which will stick. You could go that route, or get the same thing from the McKinsey Global Institute’s in-house think-tank for the cost of a new book. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, was written by McKinsey directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, and offers insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the business world in coming decades. Below, we’re recapping their list of the “Disruptive Dozen”—the technologies the group believes have the greatest potential to remake today’s business landscape.

儲能技術

本書的作者們預測，未來十年，鋰離子電池組的成本將降低三分之一，這一改變不僅對電動車領域至關重要，也與可再生能源存儲技術的發展息息相關。同時，隨著電池價格日益低廉和電池效率的提高，運輸、發電和石油天然氣行業也將受到重大影響。

Energy storage

The book's authors predict that the price of lithium-ion battery packs could fall by a third in the next 10 years, which will have a big impact on not only electric cars, but renewable energy storage. There will be major repercussions for the transportation, power generation, and the oil and gas industries as batteries grow cheaper and more efficient.