????

????去年底，唐巖帶著他的交友軟件陌陌登陸納斯達(dá)克市場。他把陌陌描述為社交軟件Tinder和圖片共享軟件Snapchat的結(jié)合體。這只股票在短短幾個(gè)月里上漲了20%，給曾做過網(wǎng)站編輯的唐巖帶來了8億多美元的身家。但唐巖并不像大家所想的那么開心。盡管陌陌在美國取得了成功，但在火爆的A股市場，上市公司的表現(xiàn)要好得多。

????因此，今年6月23日，唐巖和陌陌的另外幾名大股東發(fā)出要約，打算收購該公司剩余股份，以求在中國重新上市。欣喜的投資者抬高了陌陌的股價(jià)，至少一開始是這樣。但從那時(shí)起，中國股市開始下挫；和其他幾十家打算今年回歸A股的中國公司一樣，陌陌陷入了迷茫之中，投資者開始懷疑股票是不是買對(duì)了。

????當(dāng)初唐巖想讓陌陌回歸A股的原因顯而易見。36歲的唐巖住在北京，今年A股的火爆場面都被他看在眼里。截至6月中旬，滬市傳統(tǒng)公司的股價(jià)上漲了60%，以科技企業(yè)為主的深圳市場更是飆升了160%。就連現(xiàn)在，重挫之后的A股今年仍有80%的漲幅。和在紐約上市的中國公司相比，一些A股公司的估值達(dá)到了前者的兩倍、三倍、甚至四倍。

????注意到這種差異的并非唐巖一人。金融信息平臺(tái)Dealogic提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年初以來，在美上市的中國公司發(fā)出的收購要約價(jià)值已達(dá)270億美元，是之前六年總和的兩倍多。規(guī)模最大的管理層收購來自中國第二大網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索引擎奇虎360，達(dá)到84億美元。其他要回歸的公司還包括有中國Facebook之稱的人人網(wǎng)、一家連鎖酒店、一家房地產(chǎn)公司和交友網(wǎng)站世紀(jì)佳緣。

????北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院教授鮑大雷指出：“中美市場對(duì)公司的估值存在差異。眼下，重新在中國上市更合算?！?/p>

????但最近A股市場岌岌可危，這讓這股退市潮受到了質(zhì)疑。中國股市在過去三周時(shí)間里暴跌30%，政府因此全面出手救市，甚至?xí)和Ａ诵鹿砂l(fā)行。盡管目前點(diǎn)位仍高于年初的水平，但6月中旬以來A股市值已蒸發(fā)約3萬億美元。

????中國股市和美國市場有著本質(zhì)上的區(qū)別，前者甚至有更明顯的賭博色彩。9000萬散戶誤以為政府能控制股市局面，并且經(jīng)常在官方媒體發(fā)出呼吁時(shí)建倉，最近的情況就是如此。一年來，盡管企業(yè)盈利能力下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢，但中國股市節(jié)節(jié)攀升?！都t色資本主義》一書的作者弗雷澤?豪伊說：“在過去一年時(shí)間里，中國投資者的行為反復(fù)表明，只要他們覺得能賺到錢，買進(jìn)純粹的垃圾股也樂此不疲?！?/p>

????總的來說，中國投資者有機(jī)會(huì)買到這些回歸的科技股是件好事。但最近大批中國公司收購自身股票的行為也表明它們既羨慕A股，又目光短淺，這樣的思路危機(jī)四伏。就在陌陌發(fā)出收購要約幾天前，以科技股為核心的深圳創(chuàng)業(yè)板開始下挫，這讓唐巖體會(huì)到了A股的震蕩會(huì)有多么劇烈。

????此外，IPO在中國面臨的監(jiān)管障礙可能會(huì)讓這些曾經(jīng)的紐約上市公司為回歸A股等上一年，甚至更長時(shí)間。豪伊指出：“在中國，有幾百家公司等著上市，許多從美股回歸的公司都排在后面?！?/p>

????到了陌陌等公司可以在國內(nèi)上市的時(shí)候，有關(guān)回歸A股的爭論也許已經(jīng)結(jié)束。紐約股市研究機(jī)構(gòu)Summit Research Partners分析師Henry Guo認(rèn)為：“退出美國市場并在中國重新上市的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵依據(jù)是兩個(gè)市場的估值差異?！彼赋?，A股暴跌以來，“中國投資者對(duì)估值變得越來越謹(jǐn)慎” 。

????中國公司拿到了回家的船票，但到家后等著它們的未必是它們想看到的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????Late last year, Tang Yan took his Chinese dating app Momo—which he describes as a mix of Tinder and Snapchat—public on the Nasdaq. In just a few months, the stock rose 20%, and earned Tang, a former website editor, a net worth of more than $800 million. But Tang wasn’t as happy as you’d think. Despite Momo’s success on the U.S. exchange, companies trading in the red-hot Chinese stock markets were doing much better.

????So on June 23, Tang and a few of Momo’s other big shareholders proposed buying out the rest of the company’s stakeholders with an eye on relisting the company in China. Pleased investors sent the stock upward, at least at first. Since then, Chinese stock exchanges have tanked, and like dozens of other Chinese companies attempting the same maneuver this year, Momo is now in limbo — leaving investors wondering if buying a ticket home was the right move.

????It’s easy to see why Tang had originally wanted to take the company to China. The 36-year-old who lives in Beijing has watched companies trading on China’s stock markets go on a tear this year. In Shanghai, shares of traditional companies rose 60% through mid-June. A tech-heavy exchange in Shenzhen rocketed 160%. Even now, despite the tumult, Chinese stocks are up 80% for the year, and some Chinese companies boast valuations double, triple, even quadruple those of Chinese companies listed in New York

????Tang isn’t alone in noticing the disparity. So far this year there have been $27 billion worth of buyout offers of Chinese companies listed in the U.S., says Dealogic, more than double the amount over the past six years combined. The largest was the $8.4 billion management bid in June for Qihoo 360, which runs China’s second largest search engine. Others included Renren, known as the Chinese Facebook, a hotel chain, a real estate firm, and the matchmaking site Jiayuan.

????“The China and U.S. markets are valuing companies differently,” Paul Gillis, a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, says. “For now, there is money to be made by relisting in China.”

????But the recent crisis is casting doubt on that corporate exodus. Chinese stocks have plunged 30% in the last three weeks, leading the country to enact sweeping support measures, and put a temporary halt to IPOs altogether. Though Chinese stocks are up from where they started the year, roughly $3 trillion in market cap has been erased since mid-June.

????Chinese stock markets are fundamentally different than America’s—and China’s are even more of a casino. An army of 90 million small investors falsely believes the government can control the stock market and often piles into stocks when the state-run press urges them, which it’s done recently. Stocks’ rise over the past year has come as business profitability and the economy slows. “Chinese investors have repeatedly shown over the year they will happily pile into complete crap if they think they can make money,” Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism, says.

????It’s generally a good thing that Chinese investors will have a chance to buy the tech companies relisting there. But the recent spate of buyout deals also reflect a mix of envy and myopic thinking that’s filled with pitfalls. Just days before Momo’s buyout offer, the tech-centric ChiNext board in Shenzhen started its descent, giving Tang a taste of the volatility that could be in store in China.

????There are also regulatory hurdles to IPO in the country that could leave the former New York-listed companies waiting for a year or more to relist. “There are hundreds of companies queuing to list in China and many of these companies are joining the back of the queue,” Howie says.

????By the time Momo and other companies can re-IPO in China, the argument for doing so might be over. “The key rationale of the whole delisting and relisting is the valuation discrepancy between the two markets,” says analyst Henry Guo of Summit Research Partners, who notes that since Chinese stocks have crashed “China investors have become more and more cautious on valuation.”

????Chinese companies have their ticket home. But they may not like what they find when they get there.