????幾年前，我一有極度不爽的修車經歷，就會去點評網站Yelp上給那家修理廠打個低分。不過隨著好評不斷涌入，那條差評很快就從首頁上消失了。這讓我對所謂的“口碑經濟”或“打分經濟”開始產生懷疑。

????接下來的幾年，各種打分網站如雨后春筍般涌現。從心理醫生，到使用打車軟件的乘客，每個人和每件事現在都成了可以打分的對象。正如《紐約時報》專欄作家陶曼玲使用幽默的筆觸所寫的那樣，當她很難打上車時，Uber乘客如今也在被司機們品頭論足。

????無所不在的打分究竟是好事還是壞事？帶著這個問題，我深入研究了“打分界”，并且很快發現了所謂“口碑經濟”的很多問題。以下就是我的發現。

????打分很重要

????事實上，打分和聲譽的確非常重要，大多數人和企業都意識到了這一點。正是出于這一原因，Reputation.com（原名叫ReputationDefender）的創始人邁克爾?弗迪克才能開創出一門龐大的生意。據《衛報》報道，這家成立于2006年的公司“迄今已經幫助160萬個付費客戶展示其線上聲譽…搜索引擎顯示的結果都是其最討人喜歡的經歷?！睙o論是真實的還是帶有部分“加工”成分，聲譽關系到一個人的職業前景，或創業公司的融資能力。而人們的社會地位又會影響其婚煙前景和事業伙伴。

????另外，打分也深刻地影響著消費者的選擇。一份針對1000余人的調查顯示，三分之二的受訪者會閱讀網上的評價，然后90%的人表示，他們的購買決定會受到正面評價的影響，86%的人表示負面評價也會影響他們的選擇。一些學術文獻也認可消費者打分的重要性。一篇論文指出：“事實顯示，消費者的評論能夠用來預測購買決策……推動消費者進一步評價……比專家評價的影響力還要大?！贝送?，該論文還指出：“銷量數據是隨同產品評價增長的，而不是基于產品質量?！?/p>

????消費者的打分準確嗎？

????消費者打分的強大影響力引發了一個問題：這些評分既然能夠有力地影響人們的判斷和決策，那么它們究竟有多準確呢？答案是，這要看你怎么定義“準確”。

????在以下三個例子中，有的打分對選擇供應商很重要，有的則不那么重要；同時它們用來衡量表現的客觀標準也不一樣。

????醫生

????就醫時能獲得最好的治療非常重要。治療結果通常來說是直觀的，比如病情好轉的程度，治療不當引發其他病癥的幾率等，由此我們以為消費者能非常準確地評價醫療服務的質量，但實則不然。

????Consumer’s Checkbook是一個采用會員訂閱制的機構，主要在舊金山等幾座大城市運營。除了要求消費者對初級護理醫師進行評分外，Checkbook還對大量執業醫師進行了調查，以確定各個專科的最佳醫師提名。該機構不接受任何廣告，同時它也有自己的醫生質量排名。

????2014年，在病人評出的104名最高評級的初級護理醫師中，只有17人被他們的同行提名為最佳人選。另外在患者評出的最高評級的醫生中，只有60%被Checkbook評為最高級。

????A few years ago, when I had a hideously bad auto repair experience, I posted a negative rating on Yelp. And then soon the rating disappeared from the first page as positive ratings poured in. That experience made me suspicious about what has come to be called the reputation or ratings economy.

????Over the ensuing years, ratings and ratings websites have proliferated. Everyone and everything from mental health providers to, as Times columnist Maureen Dowd humorously noted when she had trouble getting a ride, Uber passengers now get rated.

????Curious about how and whether the ratings game was a good thing or not, I did a deep dive into this world and quickly discovered many problems with the reputation economy. Here is what I learned.

????Ratings matter

????Michael Fertik, the founder of Reputation.com (originally called ReputationDefender), has built a huge business on the fact that ratings and reputations matter and that most people and companies understand that. His company, started in 2006, “has curated the online reputation of 1.6 million customers who pay … to have their most flattering activities showcased to the world via search engines,” The Guardian reported. A person’s reputation—whether accurate, manufactured, or some combination of the two—can have an impact on job prospects and the ability to raise capital for startups. And people’s social status affects their marriage prospects and partners.

????Ratings profoundly affect consumer choice. One survey of more than 1,000 people reported that two-thirds of respondents read online reviews, that 90% of customers who accessed reviews said that their buying decisions were influenced by positive reviews, and 86% said that negative reviews influenced their choices. The scholarly literature concurs with the importance of consumer ratings. One article noted that, “consumer reviews have been shown to predict purchasing decisions … to drive further consumer ratings … and to have more influence than expert reviews.” Moreover, that same piece stated that, “sales figures increase as a function of product ratings rather than the quality of the product.”

????But are they accurate?

????The potent influence of consumer ratings raises the question: how accurate are these ratings that so powerfully affect judgment and decision-making? The answer to this question depends on what you mean by accurate.

????Consider three examples that vary both in the importance of selecting the right provider and also in the extent to which there are objective criteria of performance.

????Doctors

????There’s probably nothing more important than getting the best possible medical treatment. Medical outcomes, ranging from the degree of improvement in a person’s illness to the frequency of iatrogenic (medical-treatment caused) illness, are observable. You’d expect consumers to be fairly accurate in assessing the quality of the care they receive. But they aren’t.

????Consumer’s Checkbook, a membership-subscription organization that operates in several metropolitan areas, including San Francisco, asks consumers to rate primary care physicians. Checkbook also surveys practicing physicians for their nominations of the best doctors in various specialties, including primary care. The organization, which accepts no advertising, also performs its own physician quality ratings.

????Of the 104 top-rated primary care doctors as assessed by patients in 2014, just 17 were nominated as the best by their medical peers. And barely 60% of the doctors rated highest by patients were top-rated by Checkbook.