????天行者盧克、鋼鐵俠托尼?史塔克、《冰雪奇緣》里的公主姐妹、美國隊長、《玩具總動員》里的牛仔伍迪和巴斯光年……近年來，這類家庭娛樂片里虛構的“英雄”人物逐漸主導了當今的流行文化。而這一切的幕后推手多半要指向同一家公司：迪士尼。

????自近百年前成立以來，迪士尼一直穩固地在美國大眾幻想世界里占有一席之地。但就算在這樣長的歷史中，迪士尼最近10年的表現也堪稱驚艷。自2005年鮑勃?艾格擔任首席執行官以來，迪斯尼的股價上漲了四倍多，而同期標普500指數漲了77%。其中大多數漲幅發生在2011年以后，當艾格此前埋下的伏筆開始一一收效之時。

????一些迪士尼股東因此對艾格推崇備至，就像孩子們敬慕迪斯尼電影里的“超級英雄”那樣。但在最近幾個月，多空雙方開始爭論：迪士尼股票還能漲多久？

????盡管沒有人質疑迪士尼短期內的前景，但有些分析師對其股票的高估值憂心忡忡。按上個財年的收入計算，迪士尼現在的市盈率高達26倍，如果按本財年的預估收入計算，市盈率為22倍。相比之下，同樣按近期收入計算，陶氏化學的市盈率僅為16倍。

????在長期關注迪士尼的31位分析師中，有12位給出了“持有”評級。通常情況下，獲得該評級的都是基本面健康但價格已上漲至偏高價位的個股。不光是分析師對迪士尼股票持謹慎態度。據高盛最近估算，對沖基金里做空迪士尼的倉位已達到45億美元，在美股市場名列第二，僅次于AT&T。

????關鍵在于，迪士尼的業績已不能簡單用“增長”來形容，其表現優秀到連看多方都大呼意外。今年3月，一位分析師純粹因認為迪士尼估值過高而下調了它的評級，認為股價進一步上漲的空間有限。但就在本月，迪士尼的業績又一次超過了華爾街的平均預期，這已經是過去六個季度中第五次出現這種情形。最新季報出爐后，七位分析師將迪士尼的目標股價上調至120-125美元。上周五，迪士尼以110美元的價格收盤。

????因此，盡管空方認為迪士尼股價已到頂，多方仍然認為其“柴源”充足，“篝火”仍可熊熊燃燒一段時間。多方的依據主要是艾格這些年來打造的兩大成就，一是建立起了深受大眾青睞的穩定的內容產品線；二是加強了迪士尼內部業務的交叉關聯，使部門間的生意可相互反哺。

????這一點在迪士尼的電影業務上體現得尤其明顯。2006年，迪士尼收購了皮克斯動畫工作室。考慮到史蒂夫?喬布斯和艾格的前任邁克爾?艾斯納之間的積怨，這筆收購相當引人注目。三年后，迪士尼收購了漫威娛樂，當時漫威旗下的各色“超級英雄”剛踏上復興之路。2012年，盧卡斯影業正策劃新的“星戰三部曲”時，迪士尼出手將該公司納入麾下。

????2015年迄今以來，迪士尼電影《灰姑娘》實現了5.21億美元的全球票房，《復仇者聯盟2：奧創紀元》斬獲12億美元。《明日世界》成為美國上周末票房冠軍，但該片的表現沒有達到預期，不過，上周末也是2001年以來美國陣亡將士紀念日假期票房最低的一次。這三部影片對迪士尼來說只能算熱身。皮克斯今年將推出兩部影片，分別是《頭腦特工隊》和《恐龍當家》。同期上映的還有《星球大戰7：原力覺醒》。其中《星戰7》的人氣尤其高，光是最新預告片就吸引了逾2億人次觀看。

????隨后，迪士尼翻拍的《森林王子》將于2016年上映，同期上映的還有《美國隊長3》、《海底總動員2：尋找多莉》和《愛麗絲夢游仙境2》，它的上一部，2010年上映的《愛麗絲夢游仙境》當時創下了逾10億美元票房。同時，《冰雪奇緣2》和《玩具總動員4》也在制作之中。漫威也不會閑著，《雷神3》、《銀河護衛隊2》以及另外兩部《復仇者聯盟》電影預計都將在2019年底前和觀眾見面。

????重磅巨制輪番轟炸或許會造成粗制濫造的感覺，但對迪士尼來說，這些電影創造了多條增收渠道。《冰雪奇緣》2013年就已上映，但過去六個月其周邊銷售額仍同比增長了10倍。藝電正打算在《星戰7》上映時，同步推出游戲《星球大戰：戰爭前線》。迪士尼2010年收購的游戲工作室Playdom也正在開發星戰和漫威主題游戲。

????迪士尼樂園也搭上了電影的順風車，《明日世界》就是一例。迪士尼主題公園近六個月營業利潤增長了22%，已成業務新增長點。上海迪士尼樂園計劃2016年開業，有望在隨后幾年進一步推動收入增長。

????迪士尼也有潛在的業務短板，這也是它業務里最大的一塊，即包括ESPN和美國廣播公司（ABC）在內的媒體網絡。過去六個月中，這項業務盡管收入上升了12%，但營業利潤持平。迪士尼在投資者電話會議上解釋稱，媒體業務利潤持平的原因是美國橄欖球聯盟和大學橄欖球聯賽的轉播成本上升。

????Luke Skywalker. Tony Stark. Elsa and Anna of Arendelle. Captain America. Woody and Buzz. The fictional heroes of family entertainment have never dominated popular culture as much as they have in recent years. And there is one company that is largely responsible for that: Disney.

????Founded nearly a century ago, Disney has long-held a firm place in America’s popular imagination, but even within that long history the past decade has been an impressive ride. Since Bob Iger took over as CEO in 2005, Disney’s stock has more than quadrupled while the S&P 500 is up 77%. Most of the gains have come since 2011 as Iger’s early moves began to bear fruit.

????And so some Disney shareholders have come to regard Iger with the kind of awe children have for Disney’s franchised superheroes. But in recent months a debate has broken out between bulls and bears over how long the rally can continue.

????While no one is doubting Disney’s immediate future, some analysts are concerned about the stock’s heady valuation. Disney is trading at 26 times last fiscal year’s earnings and 22 times its estimated earnings this year. The Dow, by contrast, is trading at 16 times its recent earnings.

????Of the 31 analysts covering Disney, 12 of them have a hold rating on the stock – often a rating given when an otherwise healthy stock has grown pricey. It’s not just analysts who are cautious. Goldman Sachs recently calculated that hedge funds have an aggregate $4.5 billion in short interest in Disney, second only to AT&T among US stocks.

????The thing is, Disney isn’t just growing, it’s performing so well that it’s surprising even the bulls. In March, one analyst downgraded Disney purely on its valuation,arguingfurther gains would be limited. But this month, Disney beatWall Street’s consensus estimate for the fifth time in the last six quarters. Following its last earnings report, seven analysts raised price targets to between $120 and $125 a share. Disney closed Friday at $110 a share.

????So while the bears argue that Disney is priced for perfection, bulls counter that the company has enough kindling to keep the bonfire burning for some time, largely because of two things Iger has built over the years: a steady lineup of content that appeals to the masses and an interlacing of Disney divisions that can feed business to each other.

????This is especially clear in the film business. In 2006, Disneybought Pixar, an impressive deal given the bad blood that has existed between Steve Jobs and Iger’s predecessor Michael Eisner. Three years later, Disney bought Marvel Entertainment just as it superhero franchises were entering a renaissance. And in 2012, the company bought Lucasfilm just as a new Star Wars trilogy was being planned.

????So far in 2015, Disney’s Cinderella has brought in $521 million worldwide and Avengers: Age of Ultron has pulled in $1.2 billion. The company’s Tomorrowland topped theweekend box-office in the U.S., but the movie fell short of expectations in what was the film industry’s lowest-grossing Memorial Day weekend since 2001. But Disney is only getting warmed up: Two Pixar movies, Inside Out andThe Good Dinosaur, are coming this year, along with Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens. The anticipation of Star Wars is especially high–the latest trailer alone has already had more than 200 million views.

????Beyond this year, Disney has a Jungle Book remake coming in 2016, along with Captain America 3, Finding Dory and a sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, which topped $1 billion in receipts. Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 are in the works. And the Marvel lineup will remain busy, with newThor and Guardians of the Galaxy films and two Avengersmovies expected through 2019.

????The relentless parade of blockbuster fare may feel manufactured but, for Disney, they are paying off through multiple revenue streams. Sales of Frozen merchandise in the past six months rose tenfold over the year-ago period, even though the movie was released in 2013. EA is timing aStar Wars: Battlefront game to coincide with the film’s release, and the Playdom gaming studio Disney bought in 2010 is working on Star Wars- and Marvel-themed games as well.

????There are also tie-ins for theme parks, like Tomorrowland. Theme parks have become a growth area with operating profit in the unit growing 22% over the past six months. Disney is planning to open a new theme park in Shanghai in 2016, which could add to revenue in coming years.

????The one area of potential weakness is in Disney’s largest unit, the media networks business including ESPN and ABC, which saw operating income flat in the last six months while revenue rose 12% in the period. In a call with investors, Disney cited higher programming costs for NFL and college football games as reasons for the flat profit in the division.