????這份報告表示，這些變化對通用汽車和福特汽車的沖擊最大，它們將不得不厲行改革，主動應變。而美國車橋公司這類主要面向卡車和高端車輛的企業則會相對安全。但那些傳統的量產車廠商，甚至那些“相對安全”的豪華型性能車制造商將受到沖擊。車輛更少就意味著對零部件的需求更少，只有那些能轉變方向、適應汽車保有量大量減少這一現實的公司能夠幸存下來。

????與此同時，這份報告稱，2013年斥資5億美元收購汽車共享創業企業Zipcar的安飛士?巴吉集團如果能管理一個SAV車隊，就將處于不敗之地。根據這種假設，梅賽德斯奔馳的制造商戴姆勒集團也早已為這一巨變做好了準備。2013年，這家德國汽車巨頭就成立了一家主打汽車服務的子公司，該公司現在擁有moovel部門和汽車共享品牌car2go。Car2go用奔馳的小型車Smart為會員服務，目前在全球27個城市已擁有超過75萬名會員。去年，它還收購了創業企業RideScout和出租車預訂應用Intelligent Apps。

????巴克萊銀行將最大的賭注押在了iStream這類低端創新者身上，這家初創公司計劃打造專為汽車共享市場設計的廉價電動車，最終是生產共享型自動駕駛汽車。巴克萊看好的另一個贏家是英國公司Riversimple，它正在打造兩座版的燃料電池汽車，并計劃提供汽車服務而不是銷售汽車。巴克萊銀行尤其看好一家生產芯片的以色列公司，這種芯片可實現先進的駕駛者輔助功能。

????谷歌公司也在這一轉變過程中占據了有利位置。巴克萊發現，谷歌主要是為傳統及新興汽車廠商提供軟件，而不是生產汽車。

????該報告聲稱，隨著其量產車逐步被SAV所取代，特斯拉公司可能會受到較大的負面影響。盡管巴克萊銀行為特斯拉描繪了一幅危機四伏的未來圖景，但應該指出的是，該公司一貫善于捕捉市場機會，并能在以前似乎毫無市場需求的領域設計出需求者眾多的產品。

????特斯拉的電池技術、生產和軟件領域的諸多創新——這都是真正有效的自動駕駛汽車市場的關鍵要素——以及其近期進入儲能市場的動作，都說明該公司能很好地抓住市場向無人駕駛汽車轉變的這一契機。

????就未來而言，對諾基亞公司地圖業務的收購很說明問題。約翰遜向《財富》雜志表示，一家交通網絡公司的主要興趣將是確保其擁有穩定、連續的地圖數據流。

????約翰遜表示：“對顛覆性移動服務領域來說，地圖是一個錦上添花的配置。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：阿周

????審校：任文科

????GM and Ford will be impacted the most by these changes and will have to restructure in order to adapt, according to Barclays. Companies like American Axle, which have a large exposure to work trucks and status vehicles, will be relatively safe. Still, suppliers to traditional mass-market automakers and even those “safer” luxury performance vehicles, will be impacted. Fewer vehicles will mean lower demand for parts and only companies that can pivot and adjust to much lower volumes will survive.

????Meanwhile, Avis Budget Group , which acquired car-sharing startup Zipcar for $500 million in 2013, is well positioned if it becomes a manager of SAV fleets, says Barclays. Under that premise, Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes-Benz, is prepared for the shift as well. In 2013, the German car company launched a mobility services subsidiary, where it now houses its moovel unit and car-sharing car2go brand. Car2Go, which connects members with Smart cars, has more than 750,000 registered members in 27 cities around the world. In the past year, it has also purchased startups RideScout and the mytaxi cab-booking app Intelligent Apps.

????Barclays puts its biggest bet on low-end disruptors—startups like iStream that plan to build cheap electric vehicles designed for the car-sharing market and eventually shared autonomous vehicles. Other Barclays winners in this space include UK firm Riversimple, which is building a fuel-cell powered two-seater and plan to offer mobility as a service rather than sell its cars. Barclays is particularly fond of , an Israeli company that makes chips used for advanced driver assistance.

????Google is also well-positioned for the shift to driverless cars. Barclays sees Google offering software to traditional and new automakers, not producing the cars.

????Meanwhile, Tesla Motors could be negatively impacted as its mass market cars lose out to SAVs, according to the Barclays report. While Barclays paints a precarious picture for Tesla, it should be noted that the company has a record of jumping at market opportunities and designing products that create massive demand where there previously appeared to be none.

????Its battery tech, innovations in manufacturing and software—the essential ingredient for an effective autonomous car market—as well as its recent entry in the energy storage market all point to a company able to take advantage of a shift to driverless cars.

????Considering the future, the pursuit of Nokia’s maps business makes sense. A transportation network company’s key interest will be to make sure it has a steady uninterrupted flow of map data, Johnson told Fortune.

????“Mapping has emerged as the Spice of the disruptive mobility universe,” Johnson says.