????巴克萊銀行的一份分析報告稱，如果自動駕駛汽車在美國社會占據主導地位，美國的汽車銷量可能會猛跌40%，汽車擁有量也會下降50%，這將迫使福特和通用這類汽車巨頭主動適應或是被動消亡。

????不過這一巨變也會為科技創業企業和租車公司創造了一些機遇。

????這份名為《顛覆移動性》，由巴克萊銀行分析師布萊恩?約翰遜執筆的報告所構想的是，25年后，如果其它因素保持不變，而絕大部分量產汽車都是自動駕駛的，社會將會如何運轉。

????顯然，這份報告更多是一種思想實驗——它需要我們做出大量假設。不過這種預測仍然向我們生動地展示出顛覆性的自動駕駛汽車可能對汽車業和交通運輸業帶來何種沖擊。鑒于谷歌公司計劃于2020年正式推出自動駕駛汽車，這種充滿未來感的場景其實距我們也并不遙遠。

????那么，未來這種情景中誰是贏家，誰又會是輸家呢？ Uber會拋棄司機，變成一家車隊管理公司嗎？特斯拉公司打入大眾市場的策略會威脅其生存嗎？

????不過約翰遜預計，就算無人駕駛汽車一統天下，需要司機駕駛的汽車仍會存在。也就是那些性能出眾、或有特定用途的汽車和輕卡仍將幸存——擁有一輛邁凱倫650S Spider卻不能開有什么意義呢？

????這份報告估計，美國有超過50%的汽車是用于上下班和接送孩子的。就是在這種純用于通勤的領域，約翰遜認為共享型自動駕駛汽車將顛覆汽車業。

????共享型自動駕駛（SAV），就像沒有司機的Uber——這就是一隊自動駕駛的出租車，乘客只需要點擊應用就能召車。照此類推，拼上一輛共享型自動駕駛汽車，在不同地點接上不同乘客這種模式也會涌現。

????在舊金山這類人口稠密的城區，無人駕駛汽車的到來將會對傳統出租車公司、Uber和Lyft這類召車應用造成沖擊，影響程度取決于這類技術導向的創業企業將如何應對。實際上，優步和Lyft在很多方面都已為這一轉變做好了準備。這兩家公司早已用技術手段將司機和乘客聯接起來，而且它們都在提供拼車或汽車共享服務。

????但在城市遠郊和德克薩斯州奧斯汀這樣的城市，由于它由一個緊湊的中心城區和環繞的市郊地區組成，SAV的興起可能會帶來更大的沖擊。德克薩斯大學的研究人員建立了一個基于奧斯汀市實際交通狀況的仿真建模。通過運行這一建模，他們發現，每輛SAV可替代9輛傳統汽車。與此同時，每輛SAV可行駛63,335英里，約為一般家用車年行駛里程的5倍。

????贏家和輸家

????對消費者來說，作為一項交通服務，SAV的經濟性會讓他們嘗到甜頭。這份報告預計，SAV每英里的成本只有0.34美元，這幾乎要比傳統新車使用成本便宜近58%。而如果拼SAV，假設每趟只有兩名乘客，那這一成本將降至每英里只有0.16美元。

????但對生產量產車的公司來說，一個無人駕駛汽車的社會將會更具挑戰性。這份報告寫道：

????“正像馬要么成為真正的馱獸（如在牧場上），要么成為富人的玩物，比如漢普頓經典名馬展，我們認為一個規模較小的汽車市場也會如此，個人擁有的車要么有特定工作用途，要么就是為了彰顯身份或追求性能。而對多數人來說，共享型自動駕駛汽車將取代個人擁有的車輛，就像T型車取代了馬一樣?！?/p>

????In a society dominated by self-driving cars, U.S. auto sales might fall 40% and vehicle ownership could drop 50%, forcing entrenched automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors to adapt or die, according to a Barclays analyst report.

????This shift will also create opportunities for tech startups and rental car companies.

????The research report, “Disruptive Mobility” by Barclays plc analyst Brian A. Johnson, imagines how society would operate 25 years from now if everything stayed the same except that the majority of vehicles produced were fully autonomous.

????Obviously, the report is more of a thought experiment—and one that requires us to make a number of assumptions. Still, the forecast illustrates how disruptive self-driving cars could be to the automotive and transportation industries. And with Google’s plan to introduce self-driving cars by 2020, this futuristic scenario doesn’t isn’t seem so far off.

????So who wins and loses in this futuristic scenario? Does Uber ditch its drivers and become a fleet management company? Will Tesla’s entry into mass-market cars threaten its existence?

????Even when driverless cars monopolize the landscape, Johnson predicts driver-required cars will still exist. These will be cars and light trucks owned for specific work purposes or for their performance—what’s the point of owning a McClaren 65OS Spider if you can’t drive it?

????The Barclays report estimates a little more than 50% of cars in the U.S. are used for getting to and from work, and dropping the kids off at school. It’s in this purely commuter-daily routes space, where Johnson sees shared autonomous driving upending the auto industry.

????Shared autonomous driving, or SAVs, would be like Uber without the driver—a fleet of robotic taxis capable of picking up a passenger who has summoned the ride with the touch of an app. Taking it a step further, pooled SAVs that pick up multiple riders at different points would also emerge.

????The advent of driverless cars in dense urban areas like San Francisco would impact traditional taxi companies and taxi apps like Uber and Lyft, depending on how these tech-focused startups adjust. Uber and Lyft are, in many ways, prepared for this transition. The companies already use technology to connect drivers with riders and they both operate carpooling, or shared riding, services.

????But in exurban areas and cities like Austin, Texas, which have a compact urban core and surrounding sprawl, the rise of shared autonomous vehicles could have an even bigger impact. Researchers at the University of Texas, who ran simulation models based on actual trips in Austin, found that every SAV on the road could displace nine traditional cars, according to the report. At the same time, each SAV would travel 63,335 miles, about five times the annual mileage of a traditional family car, the report says.

????Winners and Losers

????For consumers, the economics of SAVs, or transportation as a service, is a win. Barclays estimates the cost per mile for SAVs will be $0.34 a mile, nearly 58% cheaper than traditional new cars. Pooled SAVs, assuming two riders per trip, would push those costs down even more to $0.16 per mile.

????For companies that make mass market cars, a driverless society would be far more challenging. From the Barclays report:

????Just as horses have become either true beasts of burden (e.g. on a cattle ranch) or a rich person’s play-thing—we think of the Hampton Classic Horse Shows—we see a smaller auto market, with individually owned vehicles either for work purposes or for status/performance. For the rest, shared autonomous vehicles will replace individually owned cars, just as the Model T replaced the horse.