????Uber的成功鼓舞了成百上千家初創公司，它們打出旗號，自稱為“XX業的Uber”。如今，幫助你訂購生活用品、洗車、尋找法律顧問等的應用紛紛涌現。Uber是按需移動服務這一大類產品的代表。拜智能手機和云計算所賜，需要辦事的人現在可以更容易找到那些希望利用閑暇時間兼職掙錢的人士。

????企業家和投資者為其中蘊含的巨大機遇和潛力感到興奮，不過也有其他人擔心經濟“Uber化”會讓一切優秀的全職工作變成彈性制的臨時活計。不過無論是恐懼還是熱切期盼，有一點我們得明白：按需服務并不適用于所有行業。

????有許多潛在因素導致按需服務市場顛覆出租車行業的時機已經成熟：這是一項商品化服務，消費頻率高，時效性強。盡管這些特質絕不是出租車行業獨有的，但也不是所有行業和領域都有類似情況。因此，找一個尚未開發的市場，宣布你要做一款“XX行業的Uber”，并不能保證你取得成功。

????潛在的商品化服務

????當我們需要打車時，只要能有一位司機開著干凈整潔的汽車，把我們從A地帶到B地而不會有迷路的風險，就能讓我們感到滿意。因此，我們對誰來提供這項服務并不是十分在意。不過服務越復雜，消費者就越難接受這種服務人員的隨機性。在選擇誰來給我們理發，幫我們照看小孩，修理家具，提供法律或醫療服務上，我們都會有所偏好。

????為了克服這種信任障礙，市場可以利用用戶評論和Facebook上的檔案。比如說，房屋租賃服務商Airbnb利用Facebook Connect，設法讓人們在開放自己的家庭或留宿在陌生人家中時感到安全可靠。其他的方式還包括證明自己的服務提供商資質，與已有的評論網站合作以獲得客戶評價，并提供退款保障。

????如今，尚未商品化的服務網站已經存在。不過它們的運作更像是營銷拓展的手段，而不是利用Uber這樣通過簡單幾次點擊的應用，促進整體業務發展的實際市場。

????想要在市場中開展復雜的業務，需要把服務產品化，也就是提前設定服務的范圍、價格、持續時間、可交付成果等一系列內容。只有去掉了服務中的可選因素和定制化部分，顧客通過移動應用來使用一項復雜服務才會變得比較現實。

????高消費頻率

????最好的市場中，服務的消費頻率和使用率很高。對城市居民和經常旅行的人來說，出租車是每日或至少是每周都得使用的工具。此外，隨著旅客從一個地方去到另一個地方，Uber還有了顯著的溢出效應。

????在高頻率的使用下，消費者一旦滿意某項服務，就會習慣于一直使用它。因此，一家初創公司在這樣的況下成為“手機必備應用”也就輕而易舉了。相比之下，如果消費者的購買頻率不高，想要讓他們保持對品牌的關注就難得多。比如，如果消費者每年只需要清掃幾次院子，他們更可能每次都重新研究一下哪家的服務更好。

????真正的按需服務

????許多想要做成按需移動服務的服務類型，實際上并不是“按需”的。大多數情況下，你不需要清潔工或房屋油漆工在幾分鐘，甚至是在當天內就上門服務。但出租車的情況則完全不同。

????真正的按需服務市場需要供應方擁有足夠的流動性。如果出租車服務市場沒有足夠的司機，消費者就只能在路邊干等著。這種流動性使得其他公司很難進入這個市場，因為新來的競爭者也得擁有數百個司機，而不是幾個就夠了。

????相反，如果某項服務可以更靈活地安排交付時間，競爭者就能更輕易地進入一個垂直行業或是新領域，“贏家通吃”的趨勢也不會那么明顯。如此一來，我們預計在真正的按需服務領域只會看到一到兩家大型供應商，而在那些對時間不太敏感的市場則會充滿眾多小公司的身影。

????結語

????這并不是說Uber將成為市場上價值數十億美元的最后一家公司。我堅信一些經驗豐富的公司會設法把更加復雜的業務推向網絡，并顛覆更多的行業。然而，企業家和投資者需要深思熟慮地評估市場和垂直行業的潛在因素，因為“XX業的Uber”未必能像原版Uber那樣奏效。（財富中文網）

????本文作者為Version One公司創始合伙人，風投公司安德森?霍洛維茨的董事合伙人。文章最初發表于其博客。

????譯者：嚴匡正

????審校：任文科

????The success of Uber has inspired hundreds of startups to call themselves the “Uber of X, Y, or Z.” There are now apps to order groceries, to have you car washed, to get legal counsel, and much more. Uber is part of a broad category of on-demand mobile services. Thanks to smartphones and cloud computing, it’s easier than ever to connect people who need a job done with people looking to take on some extra work and monetize their spare time.

????Entrepreneurs and investors are excited by the massive opportunity potential, while others worry that the Uberification of our economy will turn every good full-time job into a flex-time gig. However, amidst all the fear and exuberance, it’s important to realize that the on-demand service model won’t work for every industry.

????Several underlying factors made the taxi industry ripe for disruption by on-demand marketplaces: It’s a commoditized service with a high-purchase frequency that is truly time-sensitive. While these ingredients certainly aren’t unique to hiring a ride, they do not cut across all industries and verticals. Consequently, finding an untapped market and saying you’re going to build the “Uber for X” is hardly a surefire route to success.

????Underlying Commoditized Services

????When it comes to hiring a ride, most of us are happy as long as a driver brings us from Point A to Point B in a clean car without getting lost. This makes us pretty flexible in terms of who delivers the service. Yet the more complex the service, the harder it becomes for consumers to accept the idea that somebody at random will show up each time. We develop preferences for who cuts our hair, babysits our children, performs home repair, and gives out legal/medical advice.

????To overcome the trust-barrier, marketplaces can leverage user reviews and Facebook profiles. For example, through Facebook Connect, Airbnb has managed to make people feel safe and secure when opening up their home or staying in a stranger’s place. Other strategies are to certify the service provider pool, tie into existing review sites/peer testimonials, and offer money-back guarantees.

????Sites do exist for non-commoditized services today. But they operate more like lead generation engines than actual marketplaces capable of facilitating the entire transaction with the couple-of-taps simplicity of Uber.

????Marketplaces for complex transactions will need to productize their services, with boxed offerings that pre-define the scope, pricing, duration, and deliverables of a service. By removing choice and customization from the process, it’s more realistic for customers to arrange a complex service on a mobile app.

????High-purchase frequency

????The best marketplaces have high-purchase frequency and regular usage. For city dwellers and frequent travelers, taxis are used on a daily, or at least weekly, basis. On top of this, Uber also enjoys significant spill-over effects as travelers move from one location to another.

????With high-frequency use cases, customers fall into the habit of using the same service as long as they’re satisfied. It’s easy then for a startup to become the “homescreen app” for that particular use case. In contrast, it’s much harder to retain customer mindshare with lower-purchase frequencies. For example, if customers need a yard cleanup a few times a year, they’re more likely to begin the research process over again each time.

????True on-demand use case

????Many of the services that fall into the on-demand mobile services category aren’t actually “on-demand.” In most cases you don’t need a cleaning service or house painter to show up within minutes, or even the same day. But taxis are a different story.

????A true on-demand marketplace requires sufficient liquidity on the supply side. Without enough available drivers in a car service marketplace, customers will be left waiting on the curb. This creates a large barrier to enter the market, since a new competitor needs to launch with hundreds of providers, not just a handful.

????By contrast when services can be delivered with more flexible timing, it’s easier for competitors to enter a vertical or new location and there’s less of a “winner takes all” dynamic. As such, we can expect just one or two major players for a true on-demand service, while less time-sensitive markets will be crowded with smaller companies.

????Final thoughts

????This is not to say that Uber will be the last multi-billion dollar marketplace unicorn. I have no doubt that some savvy companies will figure out how to move more complex transactions online, shaking up more industries in the process. However, entrepreneurs and investors need to be thoughtful when evaluating the underlying factors of a marketplace and vertical, as the “Uber of X” won’t necessarily work as well as the original.

????Boris Wertz is the founding partner of Version One and a board partner with Andreessen Horowitz. This post originally appeared on his blog.