????看了這兩幅圖后，也許會有人指出，我得出的平均數模糊了兩種截然不同的情況，即iPhone和Apple TV的降價幅度非常大，而iPad和iPod的價格降幅較小。不過就算降價幅度最小的iPod，售價也在不到18個月里下滑了25%。

????這樣一看整體情況就很清楚了，要成為蘋果新產品的早期用戶，你要多花很多錢。

????“產品不完善”成本

????對早期用戶來說還有一項重大成本，就是蘋果很快就會發布大幅改進的新款。

????從某種程度上講，購買任何電子產品都會出現這樣的情況。今天買的電腦沒有幾個月以后能買到的好，幾年以后的電腦更是先進得多。

????不過，這一點在新產品上表現得格外突出。對2000年之后問世的蘋果產品來說，首次重大更新后不光伴隨著降價，新版產品的性能也遠超老款。

????說起來可能難以置信，不過第一代iPhone真沒有App Store、群發短信和高速上網功能，甚至不能復制粘貼文本。用戶只能選擇AT&T這一家電信運營商，而當時其以服務質量不穩定著稱。蘋果公司前高層讓-路易?加西在最近出版的新書《成為喬布斯》中回憶道：“iPhone剛問世時有很多缺陷?！敝钡揭荒旰?G版iPhone發售時，“才算得上真正的成品”。

????因此有人可能會擔心Apple Watch同樣出現缺陷。作為蘋果的最新產品，Apple Watch的GPS功能和數據連接完全依靠iPhone，單獨佩戴時只比普通手表略有型而已。不難想象，未來的新款Apple Watch應該可以獨立工作，成為一款真正的革命性產品，而不只是一件（極為先進的）飾品。

????對于糾結要不要下手的消費者來說，問題現在很清楚了：一是你愿意花多長時間等Apple Watch變成“真正的成品”。二是，你現在愿意掏多少錢買？（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????One might look at the graphic and argue that the average obscures two dramatically different stories: The iPhone and Apple TV experienced very large price cuts, while the iPad and iPod saw more modest reductions. But even the smallest price drop, the iPod’s, was 25% in less than 18 months.

????So there’s a clear lesson in the big picture: Early adopters have paid a significant premium to be among the first to own a new line of Apple devices.

????The Product-Isn’t-Good-Yet Tax

????Then there’s another big cost to early adopters: purchasing something that’s about to get a lot better very soon.

????To a certain extent, this phenomenon is built into every electronics purchase. The computer you buy today won’t be quite as good as the computer you could buy a few months, let alone years, from now.

????But it’s especially true when it comes to brand new product categories. It isn’t just that the price of Apple’s post-2000 innovations fell when the first serious revisions hit the market. It’s that the new and less expensiveversions were much better than the originals.

????It’s hard to believe now, but the original iPhone didn’t ship with an app store, group messaging, high-speed internet, or even the ability to copy and paste text. It was also exclusive to one carrier, AT&T, which at the time was notorious for spotty service. “The iPhone was crippled when it first came out,” recalls Jean-Louis Gassée, a former Apple executive interviewed in the recently released biography, Becoming Steve Jobs. It was only a year later, when the iPhone 3G was released, “that the iPhone was truly finished.”

????One could argue the Apple Watch is similarly crippled. Cupertino’s latest widget completely depends on the iPhone for a GPS and data connection, turning the watch into a slightly souped-up timepiece when worn on its own. It’s not hard to imagine that a future Apple Watch model that could exist indepently, making it a truly revolutionary device instead of an (extremely advanced) accessory.

????The question for prospective early adopters, then, is how long are they willing to wait until the Apple Watch is also “truly finished.” And how much are they willing to pay right now?