????風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家非常愛(ài)說(shuō)一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)之談，甚至整個(gè)創(chuàng)業(yè)界都流行著一些金科玉律。最經(jīng)典的莫過(guò)于一個(gè)關(guān)于創(chuàng)業(yè)時(shí)機(jī)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)之談：“唯一比犯錯(cuò)更嚴(yán)重的就是過(guò)于超前。”因創(chuàng)業(yè)理念太超前而失敗的例子簡(jiǎn)直數(shù)不勝數(shù)。不過(guò)自從“.com”泡沫破裂后，許多當(dāng)年失敗得一塌糊涂的點(diǎn)子，又以其它形式重新煥發(fā)了青春，成為生機(jī)勃勃的企業(yè)。

????這些創(chuàng)業(yè)理念之所以成功復(fù)蘇，也因?yàn)樗鼈儸F(xiàn)在具備了一些關(guān)鍵的要素。首先來(lái)了解一串簡(jiǎn)單的數(shù)字：2000年，美國(guó)只有43%的人使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。如今美國(guó)網(wǎng)民人數(shù)已占總?cè)丝诘?6%，移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶更是達(dá)到美國(guó)總?cè)丝诘囊话胍陨稀Ｒ簿褪钦f(shuō)，網(wǎng)絡(luò)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的受眾群體要比以往大得多。

????另外，聯(lián)邦快遞和UPS等物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)也比90年代末更發(fā)達(dá)、更高效、價(jià)格更低。最后，隨著云計(jì)算和開(kāi)源軟件的興起，網(wǎng)絡(luò)創(chuàng)業(yè)的成本從幾百萬(wàn)美元減少到幾千美元甚至更低。這大大降低了創(chuàng)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，也就意味著早期階段的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗不會(huì)導(dǎo)致投資人損失數(shù)百萬(wàn)美金。

????以下是一些當(dāng)年因過(guò)于超前而失敗的例子。

????Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world is riddled with clichés. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” It’s impossible to count the number of startups which failed because the world wasn’t ready for them yet. Since the dotcom bubble, many of the era’s biggest flops have been revived in different forms to become viable businesses.

????Today’s revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For starters, it’s a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than half of the population carries the Internet around in their pocket. The addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.

????Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS -0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a business, which means early-stage failures aren’t costing investors millions.

????Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.

????當(dāng)日送達(dá)

????Uber已經(jīng)把智能手機(jī)變成了生活的遙控器。只要按個(gè)按鈕，你想要的幾乎任何東西都可以送到家門(mén)——比如酒水、美甲、鮮花乃至大麻。亞馬遜和谷歌現(xiàn)在也提供了當(dāng)日送達(dá)服務(wù)，包括Uber在內(nèi)的不計(jì)其數(shù)的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司緊隨其后。

????最早提供同日送達(dá)服務(wù)的，是Web 1.0時(shí)代的知名網(wǎng)站Kozmo.com和Webvan。但Kozmo.com在“.com”泡沫破裂時(shí)損失了數(shù)億美元，Webvan更是讓投資人的10多億美金打了水漂。失敗的原因在于，他們的服務(wù)不賺錢(qián)。Kozmo.com的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人如今又通過(guò)MaxDelivery.com讓這個(gè)理念起死回生，雖然MaxDelivery的用戶群只有不到10萬(wàn)人，但從2005年至今，它卻能依賴自身盈利實(shí)現(xiàn)緩慢而穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)，并且能養(yǎng)活130名員工。如今有這么多創(chuàng)業(yè)公司在做當(dāng)日送達(dá)服務(wù)，足以證明這個(gè)點(diǎn)子并不壞，只是當(dāng)時(shí)時(shí)機(jī)未到。

????Same-day delivery

????Uber has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and just about anything you want will show up—booze, groceries, manicures, flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now offer same-day delivery, with countless startup—including Uber—hot on their heels.

????Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups Kozmo.com and Webvan. Kozmo.com lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they didn’t make money on their services. Today, Kozmo.com’s co-founder has revived the idea with MaxDelivery.com which has a small customer base of under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering anything you want on-demand proves that the idea wasn’t bad, but the timing was.