????經濟展望：

????? 油價仍將維持低位。不斷增加的新能源和水力壓裂法生產的石油意味著油價將會維持在每桶50-60美元，比今年年初下降一半多。曾被能源支出占用的大量金錢現在可用來修建橋梁、學校和其他基礎設施。這將是送給全世界的一份厚禮。

????? 中國將面臨考驗。中國經濟主要是靠政治而非資本驅動。政府的經濟報告充斥著粗制濫造的數據，環境污染嚴重，人們已經不再信任食品質量?？偠灾?，中國人并不幸福。中國的領導人受過良好教育，非常明智。他們正在努力維持宏觀經濟的穩定，因此說中國會陷入困境還為時尚早。不過一旦這一天來臨，那就將是一場硬著陸。

????? 日本經濟有望迎來復蘇。盡管關于日本深陷困境的說法不絕于耳——自然災害頻發，勞動力老化等等——但它實際上狀況不錯。它依靠高品質出口商品的商業模式，豐田汽車公司這類跨國企業在全球的強勢表現，以及相對其他國家較少的進口意味著，日本經濟將會走強。

????? 三星公司將深陷困境。三星公司的商業模式是銷售現有發明（如iPhone）的改良產品，而不是基于自主創新產品。隨著智能手機制造商小米公司這類中國競爭對手的強勢崛起，三星的好日子可能到頭了。

????? 印度的情況看起來不錯。美國與印度領導人近期的頻頻互訪意味著兩國正在加強軍事關系。美國將對印度的核武器項目加大支持，而后者實際已生產出核武器。這將成為印度和美國在南亞地區結成更緊密同盟關系的基礎，而這將使中國感到緊張。

????? 歐盟將經歷文化沖突。目前絕大多數決策都是德國作出的，問題是，其他北歐國家，尤其是瑞典、芬蘭、挪威和丹麥是否會支持德國？

????? 澳大利亞狀況欠佳。中國持有澳大利亞企業的大量股權。當澳大利亞手頭有錢時，它沒有將其投資到自己的產業和大學中。現在，隨著自然資源價格不斷下跌，澳大利亞已成為一個貨幣不斷走軟、依靠自然資源為主的經濟體。它最大的客戶是中國，而中國的興趣在于成為澳大利亞眾多企業的主人。（財富中文網）

????譯者：清遠

????審校：任文科

????Economic predictions:

????? Oil prices will stay low. An increased supply of alternative energy and additional oil supplies from fracking mean oil prices will stay at $50-$60 a barrel, down by more than half from earlier this year. Trillions of dollars that were tied up in energy spending are now available for bridges, schools, and infrastructure. It’s a gift to the world.

????? China has a lot to worry about. China’s economy is driven by politics rather than money. Between fudged numbers in government economic reports, pollution, and the population’s distrust of food quality, China’s population is unhappy. China’s leadership is well-educated and intelligent so they’re managing to hold everything together, so it will take years for China to crumble. When it does, the fall will be hard.

????? Japan is in a sweet spot. For all the talk about how Japan is in trouble—natural disasters, aging workforce—it is, in fact, doing well. Its business model of high quality exports, a strong global presence with companies like Toyota, and relatively few imports compared to other countries mean Japan’s economy is going strong.

????? Samsung is in trouble. Samsung’s business model is based on selling modified versions of existing inventions like the iPhone rather than inventing. With the rise of Chinese competitors like smartphone maker Xiaomi gaining market share, Samsung is in a tight spot.

????? India looks pretty good. The recent visits between US and India mean tighter military relations. US is about to give it’s blessing on India’s nuclear weapons program, which has already produced nuclear weapons. This will be the basis for a tighter alliance in South Asia between India and the US that will make China nervous.

????? The European Union is going through a cultural clash. Germany makes most of the decisions, and the question is how will the rest of northern Europe especially Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark stand for it?

????? Australia’s not doing great. China owns a large chunk of Australia’s businesses. When Australia had the money to spare, it didn’t invest in it’s own industries and universities. Now, Australia is a natural resource based economy with a sliding dollar at a time when natural resource prices are plunging. Its biggest customer is China, and China is interested in owning Australian businesses.