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起底亞馬遜金牌服務

起底亞馬遜金牌服務

JP Mangalindan 2015年02月16日
十年前,亞馬遜推出一項名為Prime的快遞服務。事實證明,這項目前擁有幾千萬會員的服務為亞馬遜成長為電商巨頭立下汗馬功勞。從視頻流媒體到免費電子書,為了留住會員,亞馬遜不斷為Prime服務添加新鮮內容。但巨額投資的背后是一個永遠填不滿的“錢坑”。展望未來,Prime究竟會成為亞馬遜的阿喀琉斯之踵,還是會成為助其翱翔天空的翅膀?且讓我們拭目以待。

????亞馬遜還在其它方面給Prime的用戶提供了優惠,比如會員可以免費閱讀60多萬冊電子書,可以享受無限的照片存儲空間,還可以享受一項堪比瑞典Spotify公司水準的音樂流服務。去年11月,亞馬遜還在Prime上推出了它的首張原創唱片——一張由43首假日歌曲組成的合集。

????除此以外,亞馬遜還于去年12月推出了一系列家居用品。目前用戶能夠選擇的只有嬰兒濕巾。原本亞馬遜還推出了一款紙尿褲產品,不過上架后不久,由于不少顧客吐槽它的設計,它最終又被撤了下來。亞馬遜之所以推出這些人們需要重復購買的產品,就是要讓它的免費快遞服務看起來更有吸引力。

????亞馬遜消費品業務部的副總裁道格?赫林頓指出:“‘媽媽會員’最大的特點,就是她們是最活躍的Prime用戶之一,參與度非常高。”亞馬遜的消費品業務部主要經營食品雜貨、保健美容、寵物和嬰兒用品。

????由于亞馬遜一般不透露與Prime有關的數據,我們無法確切地知道用戶使用該服務的頻率究竟有多高。不過有一點是明顯的:加拿大皇家資本市場公司指出,Prime會員花在亞馬遜網站上的時間要明顯多于非Prime會員。Prime會員表示,他們在亞馬遜的年均購物花費為538美元,遠遠高于非Prime會員的320美元。

????此外,幾乎可以肯定的是,Prime也讓亞馬遜花了不少錢。格里利沒有披露任何細節,不過他在一次采訪中說過這樣一番話:“如果你回溯一下,2005年這項服務推出時,它的年費是79美元。現在算上通脹、交通和油費成本,哪怕用2005年的匯率計算,怎么著也應該在100美元以上了。”言外之意就是Prime不賺錢。

????Forrester公司分析師蘇查里塔?穆爾普魯預測稱,與Prime相關的遞送費用每年至少讓亞馬遜損失10億美元。正是由于這一驚人成本,迫使亞馬遜于去年4月將Prime的年費上調至99美元。

????“另一方面,Prime對亞馬遜的業績是有貢獻的,但它也像水蛭一樣吸著亞馬遜的血。”穆爾普魯說:“電子書庫和流媒體服務等項目的注入,使Prime的成本變得越來越高。”

????自從大約20年前,貝佐斯在華盛頓州貝爾維尤市的一間車庫里創建亞馬遜以來,如果說這家公司有一項持續堅持的策略,那就是為了快速增長,它愿意接受極其稀薄的利潤率——或者說愿意接受一些業務的持續虧損。不過一直到去年,很多投資者似乎還是非常滿意亞馬遜的戰略。

????但事實證明,2014年是很有挑戰的一年。亞馬遜的網絡服務和數據中心業務出現了2006年推出以來的首次放緩。此外,亞馬遜的首款智能手機Fire Phone也由于定價過高和市場過于擁擠而迅速失敗。在推出Fire Phone不久之后,亞馬遜就損失了1.7億美元,其中近半虧損來自于那些賣不出去的Fire Phone手機。造成的結果就是,亞馬遜的股價在去年大跌23%。

????也有人質疑究竟有多少人愿意為Prime付費。Forrester Research公司針對Prime用戶的一項調查顯示,約有三分之一的受訪者表示,他們正在利用Prime服務的30天的免費試用期。基于這項研究結果,一些人批評Prime的用戶數據存在注水之嫌。不過格里利并不認可這種看法,只是表示他希望亞馬遜更早地為購物者提供免費試用Prime的機會。

????他表示:“我們了解到的情況是,給予用戶30天的免費試用機會,讓他們體驗Prime的全套服務,一直是讓顧客了解Prime的好辦法。”

????除了亞馬遜,其他零售商為了提高客戶忠誠度,也在爭先恐后地圍繞快遞業務下工夫。比如,初創公司ShopRunner已經開始為布魯克斯兄弟和玩具反斗城等零售商合作伙伴提供2天到貨的速遞服務,月費僅為8.95美元。

????還有一些服務,比如Google Express和Postmates,也在積極推動當日送達業務。只需要繳納一小筆費用,就會有送貨員從實體店取走你訂購的貨物,送到你的家門口,從下單到收貨最快只需要一個小時。(Google Express也提供類似于Prime的年會員服務。)

????亞馬遜的回應方式,是為Prime也添加同日送達服務。只需要多繳納一些費用,會員就可以在美國的12個城市收到當日遞送的快遞,在紐約市甚至可以享受到“一小時取貨”(更多的城市將于今年納入規劃)。假如貝佐斯所言不虛,未來的快遞可能還要不了一天——如果亞馬遜的無人機計劃掃清了監管障礙,從你下單到取貨或許將用不了30分鐘。希望它能實現吧。

????格里利也不太在意外界對Prime的盈利能力和亞馬遜股價波動問題的擔憂。他說比起這些問題,他更關注如何通過獨特的Prime周邊產品和服務(如電視劇《透明家庭》、無限存儲空間的圖片存儲服務Prime Photo等)來滿足顧客的需求。和貝佐斯一樣,格里利也在尋找讓快遞變得更快的方法。

????當然,如此大手筆的投資(原創內容、快遞體驗、亞馬遜自有品牌商品等)意味著Prime短期內將不可能盈利。但它的收益的確在增長:在亞馬遜公司最近的收益報告上,貝佐斯稱Prime的付費會員人數去年增長了53%。

????為了解釋這些投資,格里利提到了貝佐斯在1997年亞馬遜IPO前寫給股東的信。貝佐斯在信中稱,他將通過“巨大的賭注”和創新來打造長期的股東價值。

????格里利表示:“亞馬遜的戰略之美并沒變,圍繞Prime的戰略也沒變。為了顧客,我們一直都在創新。”的確,正如格里利所說,它是一個“能為股東帶來長期價值”的戰略。

????有些股東可能會有些牢騷,但貝佐斯已經說得再明確不過了。(財富中文網)

????譯者:樸成奎

????審校:任文科

????Amazon sweetened the pot for Prime users in other areas, too. Members get access to a digital library of over 600,000 e-books for no additional cost, unlimited photo storage and a music streaming service that rivals the Swedish startup Spotify. In November, Amazon released its first original album on the service, a 43-track digital compilation of holiday songs.

????In another new twist for Prime, Amazon introduced a line of household products in December. For now, the options are limited to just baby wipes. A line of diapers was recently pulled from sale after customers complained about their design. The idea is to push products that people buy repeatedly and are therefore all the more attractive with free shipping.

????“What distinguishes Mom members is that they are amongst the most active Prime customers — they are very engaged,” said Doug Herrington, vice president of Amazon Consumables, a business group that encompasses the groceries, health & beauty, pets and baby product areas.

????Because Amazon does not typically disclose data about Prime, it’s unclear how frequently shoppers use the service. But what is clear is that Prime members spend significantly more than more casual Amazon shoppers, according to RBC Capital Markets. Prime members said they spent an average of $538 annually with Amazon, far more than the $320 by non-Prime members.

????Also nearly certain: Prime costs Amazon dearly. Greeley declined to disclose specifics, but he suggested as much in an interview. “When you look back, the program was launched in 2005 at $79,” he said. “You factor in just simple inflation, transportation and fuel costs, the price would be over $100 today, in just 2005 dollars.” Translation: Prime doesn’t pay for itself.

????Indeed, Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru estimates that Amazon loses at least $1 billion annually on Prime-related shipping expenses. It’s a staggering cost that pushed Amazon to hike the price for Prime by $20 to $99 in April.

????“On the one hand, Prime adds to their bottom line, but it’s like a leech that sucks their blood,” says Mulpuru. “When they throw in things like lending library and streaming, it just gets more and more expensive for them.”

????If Amazon has been consistent in the two decades or so since Bezos founded it in his Bellevue, Wash. garage, it’s that the company is ready to accept razor-thin profit margins — or outright losses, in some cases — to fuel rapid growth. And until last year, many investors seemed perfectly happy with that strategy.

????But 2014 proved to be challenging for Amazon. Growth of Web Services, Amazon’s data center business, slowed for the first time since it opened in 2006. And the company’s first smartphone, the Fire Phone, quickly flopped because of its high price and a crowded market. Shortly after introducing the phone, Amazon wrote off $170 million in losses, of which nearly half came from unsold phones collecting dust somewhere. Amazon shares tumbled over 23% for the year, as a result.

????There are also questions about just how many people pay for Prime. According to a Forrester Research survey of Prime users, about one-third of respondents reported they were currently using Prime via 30-day free trials. The findings open the door to criticism that the numbers are inflated. But Greeley dismisses any such suggestion, and says, if anything, he wished Amazon had offered free trials to shoppers sooner.

????“One of our learnings, giving access to our customers to a 30-day free trial and basically letting them sample the buffet before they pay for it, has been a really good way for customers to learn about Prime,” he said.

????Competition among retailers to build customer loyalty through shipping programs is intense. For example, ShopRunner, a startup that offers two-day delivery from partner retailers like Brooks Brothers and Toys R Us, charges $8.95 a month.

????Then there are services like Google Express and Postmates, which aggressively push same-day delivery. For a small fee, couriers pick up your orders from bricks and mortar stores and deliver them to your doorstep in as little as one hour. (Google Express also offers a Prime-like annual membership.)

????Amazon has responded by adding same-day shipping to Prime. For an additional fee, members can request same-day shipping in 12 U.S. markets and one-hour delivery in New York City (more cities are planned later this year). And if Bezos is to be believed, orders could one day arrive even sooner — 30 minutes or less — via drone if they clear regulatory hurdles. Good luck with that.

????Greeley dismissed concerns over Prime’s profitability and Amazon’s fluctuating stock price. Believe it or not, he says he’s more focused on satisfying customers with unique Prime offerings like the digital series Transparent and adding features to services, including the unlimited photo storage service, Prime Photo. And like Bezos, he’s looking for ways to make the shipping speedier.

????Of course, such investments — the original content, the shipping experiments, the foray into Amazon-branded goods — means Prime won’t become profitable any time soon. But it is growing: in Amazon’s most recent earnings report, Bezos said the number of paying Prime members spiked 53% last year.

????In explaining, Greeley refers back to the letter Bezos wrote to shareholders in prelude to Amazon’s initial public offering in 1997. In it, Bezos said he would work on building long-term shareholder value through big bets and innovation.

????“The beauty of Amazon’s strategy is it hasn’t changed,” Greeley. “The strategy around Prime hasn’t changed. We’re constantly innovating on behalf of our customers.” Indeed, it’s a strategy Greeley maintains will “bring long-term shareholder value.”

????Some shareholders might grumble otherwise, but Bezos himself couldn’t have said it better.

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