????大船效率的提高對于個體承運人和全球大環(huán)境來說都有益處。其單個集裝箱運輸所耗燃油僅為老船只的50%，保險和人工成本也降低了一半多。和較小的船只相比，一艘巨型船舶同樣需要20多個船員，但運力卻是小船的三倍。

????巨型船舶對整個行業(yè)的影響則沒有那么樂觀。德魯里供應鏈研究高級經理賽門?希尼說：“供求方面，行業(yè)遭遇了我們所說的結構性產能過剩的沖擊”。大的運輸公司通過“減速航行”的方式來削弱過度供給造成的影響，即刻意地讓船以正常航速的一半來航行，既控制運力，也進一步節(jié)省了燃油。

????由于難以獲得規(guī)模效益或在速度上做文章，小型運輸公司的處境迅速惡化。全球排名前十之外的運輸公司僅運營著幾十艘巨型船，有些甚至連一艘都沒有。其中的一些公司被迫投入他人的懷抱，比如4月份赫伯羅特就并購了南美輪船。此外，貨運共享協議也是行業(yè)整合的另一種形式。到2015年初，僅四大海運聯盟就可以完全控制亞歐集裝箱業(yè)務。

????由于基礎設施的限制，巨型船舶中尺寸最大的都只能在亞歐航線上運營。像中海集運“環(huán)球號”這樣尺寸的船已經無法通過巴拿馬運河，而以目前的設施水平，美國東海岸和西海岸的港口也都無力接納這樣的船只。巴拿馬運河擴容工程目前正在進行，投資集團香港尼加拉瓜運河開發(fā)投資有限公司也準備在尼加拉瓜開發(fā)建造一條運河。巨型船舶所產生的漣漪效應已波及世界各地，因為它迫使老船和小船退出亞歐航線的運營，并造成了運力的膨脹和運價的普降。

????行業(yè)觀察者說，中海集運“環(huán)球號”世界第一的稱號可能不會長久。《中國海運》雜志的薩姆?錢伯斯預計，2015年初可能會出現2萬標箱的船只訂單，以目前亞歐航線基礎設施情況來看，未來制造2.4萬標箱的船只也是可行的。而這意味著，產能過剩的局面將會長時間持續(xù)，同時也會為全球的小型運輸公司帶來更大的壓力。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Donna

????審稿：李翔

????The efficiencies of the larger ships are a boon for individual shippers, and for the global environment. They consume as little as 50% of the fuel per container moved as older ships, while also more than halving insurance and staffing costs. A megaship requires the same 20-odd crew as a smaller ship but can carry three times the cargo.

????The effect on the industry as a whole is less sanguine. “In terms of supply and demand, the industry is blighted by what we describe as structural overcapacity,” says Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of supply chain research. Large carriers have mitigated that oversupply to a degree through a practice known as “slow-steaming”—intentionally operating ships at as little as half their normal speed, which both reins in capacity and offers further fuel savings.

????With less access to efficiencies of scale or speed, smaller carriers are losing ground fast. Carriers outside of the global top 10 operate only dozens or, in some cases, zero megaships. Some have been forced into mergers, such as the acquisition of CSAV by Hapag-Lloyd in April. Further consolidation has taken the form of cargo-sharing agreements. By early 2015, the Asia-Europe container trade will be entirely controlled by just four major alliances.

????Infrastructure limitations have kept the largest of the megaships confined to those Asia-Europe routes. Ships the size of the CSCL Globe are too large to fit through the Panama Canal, and neither East nor West Coast U.S. ports are equipped to handle them anyway. The expansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate megaships is underway, and the Hong Kong-based investment group HKND is currently exploring the construction of a large canal across Nicaragua. But the megaships are having ripple effects around the world by pushing older, smaller ships out of service on Asia-Europe routes, inflating capacity and pushing down prices everywhere.

????Industry watchers say the CSCL Globe is unlikely to retain its world’s-biggest title for long. Sam Chambers of SinoShip expects to see a 20,000 TEU ship ordered by early 2015, and ships of up to 24,000 TEU would be viable with current Asia-Europe infrastructure. That would mean continued chronic overcapacity, and even more pressure on smaller shippers worldwide.