????頁巖油的蓬勃發(fā)展讓人們認定石油開采，特別是頁巖油的開采特別復(fù)雜和昂貴。但實際情況真的不是這樣。石油水力壓裂技術(shù)只不過是以高壓向油井注入水和化學(xué)物質(zhì)，這其實算不上尖端技術(shù)。20世紀(jì)40年代以來，鉆井技術(shù)就一直如此，幾十年來能源行業(yè)已經(jīng)非常善于進行這樣的工作。水平鉆井等最近出現(xiàn)的技術(shù)進步則讓壓裂變得更簡單、更有效率。

????不過，盡管石油開采變得更簡單而且效率更高，生產(chǎn)成本卻扶搖直上。為什么呢？有幾個原因，但主要原因是高油價。哈里伯頓公司（Halliburton）和斯倫貝謝公司（Schlumberger）等油田服務(wù)商和石油開采企業(yè)商洽合同時，它們通常都會考慮油價。油價越高，它們的服務(wù)費用就越高。再加上過去幾年低利貸款的激增，使得與油田服務(wù)行業(yè)有關(guān)的需求全面增長，從人員到物資，再到住房，無不如此。試問沒有大學(xué)文憑的人在哪個行業(yè)能靠體力勞動從一開始就掙到六位數(shù)呢？在石油天然氣行業(yè)就可以，特別是在北達科他州西部。在那里，麥當(dāng)勞員工每小時掙20美元，而普通住宅的月租金會超過2000美元。

????不過，隨著油價下跌，成本也會下降，“盈虧平衡”價格也會隨之降低。經(jīng)驗豐富的石油從業(yè)者知道怎樣做到這一點——他們需要演點兒戲，這有點像在土耳其市場討價還價。首先，石油公司要捂著自己的胸口告訴服務(wù)供應(yīng)商，由于油價暴跌，它們再也無力承擔(dān)鉆井費用。服務(wù)供應(yīng)商就會給它們很小的折扣，但石油公司會拒絕。這就是我們討價還價的慣式。

????讓油田服務(wù)供應(yīng)商急出點兒汗以后（通常要兩到四個月），石油公司就會和前者取得聯(lián)系，稱自己正在“考慮”回到談判中。此時，迫切希望開展業(yè)務(wù)的服務(wù)供應(yīng)商就會愿意基于更低的油價重新洽談一份全新的協(xié)議。這份新合同的目的是讓石油公司的利潤率接近之前油價高得多的時候。這樣，利潤就可以恢復(fù)到以往水平，而且皆大歡喜。

????在石油和天然氣成本結(jié)構(gòu)的各個部分都會出現(xiàn)這樣的談判。因此，年薪13.5萬美元的電焊工可能會被降薪，而公司總部的行政人員可能得不到他們所依賴的豐厚獎金，鉆井工人和工程師的工資和福利可能也會縮水。任何有怨言的人都會被“發(fā)配”到阿拉斯加，或者冬天比北達科他州西部還要難熬的地方，比如西伯利亞（我說真的）。同時，就像所有已經(jīng)破裂的泡沫一樣，資產(chǎn)價格將全面下滑，從油田租約到自升式鉆井平臺，再到休斯頓的聯(lián)排別墅，都是如此。對了，在北達科他州西部，麥當(dāng)勞員工的小時工資可能需要降到15美元。

????但石油生產(chǎn)將繼續(xù)進行，或者說，將持續(xù)到油價真的讓任何人都沒有理由再去開采石油。

????那么在美國，可以支撐石油生產(chǎn)的最低油價是多少呢？水力壓裂技術(shù)上次在美國大行其道是20世紀(jì)80年代中期，當(dāng)時油價為每桶23美元左右。考慮通脹因素后，這相當(dāng)于現(xiàn)在的50美元。這個繁榮期在油價跌至8美元左右時結(jié)束，按目前價格水平計算相當(dāng)于大約18美元。鑒于上周油價跌至每桶63美元，看來在情況真正變得讓人害怕前，油價還有非常大的下行空間。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：Vera Han

????The shale boom has perpetuated the notion that drilling for oil, especially in shale formations, is somehow super complicated and expensive. It really isn’t. Fracking a well involves just shooting a bunch of water and chemicals down a hole at high pressure—not exactly rocket science. The drilling technique has been around since the 1940s, and the energy industry has gotten very good at doing it over the decades. Recent advances in technology, such as horizontal drilling, have made fracking wells even easier and more efficient.

????But even though drilling for oil has become easier and more efficient, production costs have gone through the roof. Why? There are a few reasons for this, but the main one is the high price of oil. When oil service firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger negotiate contracts with producers, they usually take the oil price into consideration. The higher the oil price, the higher the cost for their services. This, combined with the boom in cheap credit over the last few years, has increased demand for everything related to the oil service sector—from men to material to housing. In what other industry do you know where someone without a college degree can start out making six figures for doing manual labor? You can in the oil and gas sectors, especially in places like Western North Dakota. There, McDonald’s employees make $20 an hour and rent for a modest place can top $2,000 a month.

????But as the oil price drops, so will costs, bringing the “break-even” price down with it. Seasoned oil men know how to get this done—it involves a little Texas theater, which is sort of like bargaining at a Turkish bazaar. The producers will first clutch their hearts and tell their suppliers that they simply cannot afford to drill any more given the sharp slump in oil prices. Their suppliers will offer a slight discount on their services but the producer will say he’s “walking away.” This is where we are in the negotiating cycle.

????After letting the oil service firms sweat a bit (traditionally around two to four months), a producer will give their former suppliers a call, saying they are “thinking” of getting back in the game. Desperate for work, the suppliers will now be willing to renegotiate a whole new agreement based on a lower oil price. The aim of the new contract is to give producers close to the same margin they had when prices were much higher. Profits are restored and everyone is happy.

????This negotiation will happen across all parts of the oil and gas cost structure. So welders who were making $135,000 a year will probably see a pay cut, while the administrative staff back at headquarters will probably miss out on that fat bonus check they have come to rely on. Rig workers and engineers will see their pay and benefits slashed as well. Anyone who complains will be sent to Alaska or somewhere even worse than Western North Dakota in the winter, like Siberia (seriously). And as with any bursting bubble, asset prices will start to fall for everything from oil leases to jack-up rigs to townhouses in Houston. Oh, and that McDonald’s employee in Western North Dakota will probably need to settle for $15 an hour.

????But oil production will continue, that is, until prices reach a point at which it truly makes no sense for anyone to drill anywhere.

????So, what is the absolute lowest price oil can be produced for in the U.S.? Consider this—fracking last boomed in the U.S. back in the mid-1980s, when a barrel of oil fetched around $23. That is equivalent to around $50 a barrel today, when adjusted for inflation. That fracking boom went bust after prices fell to around $8 a barrel, which is worth around $18 in today’s money. With oil last week hitting $63 a barrel, it seems that prices have a lot more room to fall before things get really scary.