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油價大跌:中國成全球最大贏家

油價大跌:中國成全球最大贏家

Laura Lorenzetti 2014年12月04日
中國是世界第一大石油進口國,約60%的石油需求依靠進口。據中國能源經濟研究中心稱,如果油價持續下跌,到今年年底,中國將省下高達300億美元。

????彭博美國航空股指數(Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index)顯示,過去60天,航空股上漲了30.2%,而同期追蹤所有行業的標普500指數(Standard & Poor's 500 index)僅上漲了6.2%。捷藍航空和美國航空(American Airlines)領跑美國航空股,分別攀升了40.8%和41.2%。

????美國銀行(Bank of America)預測,由于燃料成本下降,2015年,北美航空公司的盈利可能飆升73%,達到190億美元。不僅航空公司將因飛行成本降低直接受益,而且假定機票價格和燃油附加費也隨之下降,那么燃料成本降低還將使旅客手中多一些零花錢。

????輸家:大陸資源公司

????大陸資源公司(Continental Resources)及其它石油生產商在股市遭受打擊,尤其是石油價格已跌破部分地區的盈虧平衡點。如今,布倫特原油的售價僅略高于每桶71美元。在美國,石油的盈虧平衡成本為每桶40-85美元不等,俄羅斯的石油盈虧平衡成本為每桶100美元,而沙特阿拉伯的盈虧平衡成本為每桶99.2美元。

????在可預見的未來,利潤率和收入預計都將受到影響,投資者因此亂成一團。過去兩個月,石油生產商的股價下跌了19%,其中,大陸資源公司是受影響最嚴重的企業之一。自10月初以來,總部位于美國俄克拉何馬州的大陸資源公司,股價已下挫38.8%。

????其它能源公司不論大小,也都受到了沖擊。自10月初以來,切薩皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy)的股價下跌了11.5%,而安特羅資源公司(Antero Resources)的股價則下滑了16.3%。

????贏家:沃倫?巴菲特

????隨著能源股下跌,那些曾經看似太貴的收購,如今價格可能更為合理。以價值投資戰略聞名于世的沃倫?巴菲特,自然不會錯過良機。

????日前,伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)旗下的路博潤(Lubrizol)斥資7.5億美元,從因油價下跌舉步維艱的石油服務公司威德福國際(Weatherford International)手中買下兩項業務。根據業績情況,收購價格可能攀升至8.25億美元。上周,威德福的股價下滑了21%,伯克希爾隨后出手收購,股價下滑當然可能使得威德福更有意愿達成交易。

????哈里伯頓公司(Halliburton)也有類似舉動,上個月,該公司同意斥資300多億美元,收購貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)。在此交易公布的前一個月,貝克休斯的股票價值縮水了23%。

????輸家:哈羅德?哈姆

????億萬富翁哈羅德?哈姆是大陸資源公司的首席執行官。油價暴跌后,哈姆的財富縮水了一半以上。由于大陸資源公司的股價大跌,自8月以來,哈姆個人損失已超過120億美元。石油大亨哈姆也是大陸資源公司的第一大股東。哈姆倒是不缺錢,(即便在離婚大出血后),其身家估計仍高達111億美元。

????但隨著石油股持續下跌,其它股東恐怕沒有哈姆這么幸運。原油價格暴跌,預計將使得全球石油生產商一年損失1.5萬億美元,這將進一步壓低股價,那些愿意繼續持有石油股的股東,收益將進一步下滑。(財富中文網)

????譯者:Hunter

????審稿:李翔

????Airline stocks have gained 30.2% over the past 60 days according to the Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index, compared to a 6.2% gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 index, which tracks all industries. JetBlue JBLU 2.34% and American Airlines AAL -0.04% were two of the biggest gainers stateside, climbing 40.8% and 41.2% respectively.

????North American airlines could add as much as 73% to their earnings--hitting $19 billion in 2015 thanks to lower fuel costs, according to a Bank of America forecast. Not only will the companies benefit directly from the lower costs of filling up planes, but lower fuel costs will also line customers pockets with extra spending money-- assuming ticket prices and fuel surcharge fees drop too.

????Loser: Continental Resources

????Continental Resources and other oil producers have taken a hit in the stock market, especially as the price of oil has slipped below the break-even point for certain regions. Brent crude oil is selling for just over $71 a barrel currently. Break-even costs are anywhere from $40 to $85 in the U.S., $100 in Russia and $99.2 in Saudi Arabia.

????Profit margins and revenues are expected to suffer for the foreseeable future--and that's sent investors scrambling. Shares of oil producers have fallen 19% over the past two months, and Continental Resources CLR -2.09% has been one of the worst hit. The Oklahoma-based company shares have slide 38.8% since the start of October.

????Other energy companies, big and small, have also been hit. Chesapeake Energy CHK -1.10% has fallen 11.5% since the beginning of October and Antero Resources AR -3.10% dropped 16.3%.

????Winner: Warren Buffett

????As energy stocks decline, acquisitions that once seemed too expensive may be more reasonable. Warren Buffett, known for his value investing strategy, is not one to pass up a good deal.

????Berkshire Hathaway's holding Lubrizol snapped up two units from oil services firm Weatherford International for $750 million after the seller was hemmed in by lower oil prices. The purchase price could climb to $825 million depending on performance. Berkshire bought the units following a 21% decline in Weatherford's shares last week, which certainly could have made the company more willing to close the deal.

????Halliburton made a similar move when it agreed to buy Baker Hughes last month for more than $30 billion. The deal followed a 23% drop in the value of Baker Hughes shares in the month preceding the announcement

????Loser: Harold Hamm

????Harold Hamm, billionaire and chief executive of Continental Resources, has lost more than half his fortune after oil prices tanked. Continental Resources shares have dropped drastically, resulting in a personal loss to Hamm of more than $12 billion since August. The oil tycoon, also the company's largest shareholder, isn't hurting for cash. He still has an estimated net worth of $11.1 billion (even after a nasty divorce settlement).

????Other shareholders may not be so lucky as oil company stocks continue to fall. The crude oil price crash is expected to cost the world's oil producers $1.5 trillion a year--and that will further depress stocks and steal gains from any shareholders willing to stick around.

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