????此外，盡管持有1550億美元的現金和證券，蘋果公司一般都會把這些資金用于回購股票，或收購小公司，后者的主要目標是其知識產權或人才，而不是延續被收購方的業務。斥資30億美元收購耳機制造商Beats是個例外，此舉在很大程度上都源于蘋果對音樂的關注。因此，Netflix離蘋果關注的目標群體還很遠，至少目前如此。

????另一個潛在買家是康卡斯特（Comcast），該公司很快就會成為康卡斯特-時代華納（Comcast-Time Warner）的一部分。如獲得美國政府的批準，這次合并將締造美國最大的有線電視公司，其用戶將達到3000萬。不過，盡管康卡斯特在市場中擁有強大的支配力，但該公司目前也面臨著與日俱增的挑戰，原因是越來越多的用戶不想繼續使用有線電視服務。隨著Netflix、Hulu，甚至是HBO和Showtime為消費者提供了大多數他們所需的在線內容，傳統的有線電視模式正在節節敗退。

????如果收購Netflix，康卡斯特就可能把前者的視頻流媒體門戶網站和自己的寬帶服務捆綁在一起，此舉或許有助于康卡斯特彌補有線電視用戶的流失。二者的合并也將有利于Netflix，因為它一直被迫向康卡斯特繳費，以免后者的網絡給它帶來播放延遲。

????不過，康卡斯特牽手Netflix仍存在兩個障礙。首先，美國總統奧巴馬最近要求聯邦通信委員會（FCC）加強網絡的中立性，這有可能造成康卡斯特這樣的公司無法有選擇性地降低網速。這樣，Netflix就不一定要和康卡斯特合并，從而規避賣家不急買家急的局面（盡管FCC負責人已經把奧巴馬的要求頂了回去）。在這種情況下，康卡斯特或許不得不以非常高的溢價收購Netflix。

????另一個障礙是反壟斷審批。具有諷刺意味的是，鑒于Netflix和康卡斯特的協同效應之大以及兩公司業務共同覆蓋的范圍之廣，二者合并的可能性已經變得非常之低，甚至毫無希望。康卡斯特和時代華納的合并已經遭到了市場觀察人士的猛烈抨擊，原因是他們擔心這項超級并購可能產生反競爭效應。如果康卡斯特在并購方面還想有進一步的動作，就可能會遭到美國司法部的否決。

????最后，我們找到了最適合收購Netflix的公司——近期剛剛上市的中國電子商務巨無霸阿里巴巴。

????上市后的阿里巴巴財力雄厚，可支配資金最多有望達到500億美元。而且，該公司正打算通過在美國的收購來實現增長。更重要的是，阿里巴巴希望在中國建立自己的流媒體視頻業務，以便和優酷土豆以及搜狐等國內視頻服務商抗衡。同時，它已經和獅門娛樂（Lions Gate Entertainment）聯手，推出一項新業務。

????雖然獅門娛樂的影視制作發行業務很成功，但是該公司在經營內容門戶網站方面毫無經驗。和Netflix這樣的純發行商不同，獅門娛樂在內容合作方面的作用可能有限。如果阿里巴巴真的想打進流媒體視頻市場，能讓它受益更多的應該是利用行業領軍企業的技術和營銷專長，而不是和獅門娛樂一起從零開始。

????阿里巴巴的目的也許不僅僅是打造視頻業務，它可能還想通過影視制作在好萊塢闖出一些名堂。但在這方面，Netflix也有可能是個可靠的合作伙伴——它已經在連續劇制作領域大展拳腳，而且開始涉足電影。Netflix還表示，2014年該公司在原創內容領域的投資將翻一番，而且其中一些資金可能用于制作專門針對中國市場的內容，其余資金將繼續為美國和其他市場提供支持。換句話說，如果收購Netflix，阿里巴巴就會獲得一個響亮的品牌，對全球流媒體市場的覆蓋（橫跨50個國家），以及一項“即插即用”的視頻業務，用于開拓價值4.7億美元的中國在線視頻市場。

????對Netflix來說，國內用戶增長放緩意味著它需要積極開拓新市場。該公司的首席財務官戴維?韋爾斯在投資者見面日上已經強調過這一點。雖然在中國發展并非易事——其中存在諸多挑戰，包括政府的限制、盜版以及讓消費者為網絡視頻付費等等，但阿里巴巴的業務規模和國內影響力可能有助于Netflix在這樣的環境下取得成功。此外，原創內容支出的不斷增長和在國際市場的迅猛發展可能會耗費大量資金，這種情況下Netflix還可能從阿里巴巴的殷實家底中受益。

????最后，Netflix目前股價比它一年中的最高點低20%，而且獅門娛樂的投資還沒有完全到位，現在應該是阿里巴巴進行接觸的好機會。考慮到馬克?庫班對Netflix的長遠打算，此舉應該會讓他開心不已。

????Sanjay Sanghoee是一位商業評論家。他曾在知名投行拉扎德（Lazard Freres）和德利佳華（Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein）就職，還曾為對沖基金RamiusCapital效力。他擁有哥倫比亞商學院（Columbia Business School）的MBA學位，在Netflix、亞馬遜公司、蘋果公司、康卡斯特、時代華納和阿里巴巴都沒有持股。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審：李翔

????In addition, even though Apple has $155 billion in cash and securities on its balance sheet, it tends to use that money for share buybacks and for purchasing small companies primarily for their intellectual property or talent as opposed to sustaining its businesses. The $3 billion Beats acquisition was an exception but that has a lot to do with Apple’s focus on music. This puts Netflix far outside of Apple’s desired scope, at least for now.

????Another potential acquirer could be Comcast CMCSA 0.51% , soon to be Comcast-Time Warner. The combination of Comcast and Time Warner, upon government approval, will create the biggest cable provider in the U.S. with 30 million subscribers. However, despite its market power, Comcast is now facing a growing challenge of consumers wanting to cut the cable cord. As services like Netflix, Hulu, and now even HBO and Showtime provide consumers with most of the content they want over the Internet, the traditional cable model is breaking down.

????By acquiring Netflix, Comcast could bundle the company’s video streaming portal with its own broadband access service, which might help it to replace customers that it loses on the cable side. A merger would also help Netflix, which was forced to pay a fee to Comcast to avoid being slowed down over the company’s network.

????Still, there are two wrinkles here. First, President Obama’s recent call on the FCC to enforce net neutrality could prevent companies like Comcast from selectively slowing down Internet traffic and therefore obviate the need for Netflix to pursue a transaction with the cable operator, making the buyer more eager than the seller (although the head of the FCC has pushed back on the idea). In that situation, Comcast might have to pay a very large premium to obtain Netflix.

????The other problem would be anti-trust approval. Ironically, the scope of the synergy between these two companies and the combined reach they would have makes this transaction highly improbable, if not impossible. Comcast’s deal with Time Warner has drawn plenty of fire from market watchers with anti-competitive concerns stemming from such a mega-merger, and any further moves by Comcast down this road could be a non-starter for the Department of Justice.

????That brings us to the most appropriate suitor for Netflix – Chinese ecommerce behemoth Alibaba BABA -3.01% , which recently went public.

????Flushed with cash after going public, Alibaba could potentially have up to $50 billion to spend. The company is also looking to grow through acquisitions in the U.S. More importantly, it wants to create a streaming video presence in China to compete with domestic players like YoukuTodou and Sohu.com, and has partnered with Lions Gate Entertainment LGF 0.41% to launch a new service.

????While Lions Gate is a successful movie and television producer and distributor, it has no experience in running an online content portal and is potentially limited in its content relationships unlike a pure-play distributor like Netflix. If Alibaba really wants to crack the streaming video market, it would benefit more from the technological and marketing expertise of the leading player in the space rather than start from scratch with Lions Gate.

????It may be that Alibaba’s goal isn’t just to launch a new video service but to make a splash in Hollywood through production. But there too, Netflix could be a solid partner given its aggressive entry into series creation and now into movies as well. Netflix has also said that it will double its spending on original content in 2014, some of which could be channeled into producing exclusive content for China while the rest continues to support the U.S. and other markets. In other words, by acquiring Netflix, Alibaba would gain a powerful brand name, a global streaming footprint (spanning 50 countries), and a plug-and-play operation for the $470 million Chinese online video market.

????For Netflix’s part, slowing domestic user growth means the company needs to expand actively into new markets, a point that CFO David Wells stressed during an investor event. While the Chinese market is not an easy one to navigate – challenges range from government restrictions and piracy of content to hesitation from consumers to pay for online video – Alibaba, with its size and local clout, could help Netflix succeed in that environment. And with its growing expenditures on original content and rapid push into international markets likely to cost a lot of money, Netflix could benefit from Alibaba’s balance sheet.

????Finally, with Netflix currently trading 20% down from its 52-week high, and the Lions Gate investment not yet complete, now would be a good time for Alibaba to explore talks. Given his long bet on Netflix, Mark Cuban would be happy.

????Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not own any shares of Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Time Warner or Alibaba.