????開發一款真正能賣出高價的豪車品牌并非一夜之功，沃爾沃應該清楚這個道理。現任福特公司（Ford）歐洲負責人的吉姆?法利在之前運營林肯品牌時曾經預測道，要讓林肯躋身豪華品牌之列，可能需要15至20年的時間。不算法拉利（Farrari）等超跑品牌和捷豹（Jaguar）等小型廠商，目前市場上真正算是豪華品牌的只有奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）、寶馬（BMW）和奧迪（Audi），他們已經雄據豪車市場幾十年了，而且是靠工藝、科技，甚至是賽車領域的全面成就才有了今天的優勢。連雷克薩斯（Lexus）都算不上是高端市場的“第一梯隊”，因為它在美國以外市場的美譽度較弱，而且它在賽車領域缺乏建樹。

????要想進入“第一梯隊”，需要在財政上做出大量投資，而沃爾沃目前還沒有進行這樣的投資。自從2000年以來，凱迪拉克（Cadillac）已經投資數十億美元以重振其豪華品牌的地位，目前仍然有很多工作要做。現在，凱迪拉克正在為2016年研發一款V8引擎的旗艦車型。沃爾沃目前的旗艦車型是2015款XC90 SUV，搭載的是魅力小得多的四缸發動機。

????同時，沃爾沃最近的表現也不令人看好它的唐吉訶德式目標。雖然沃爾沃標榜它擁有一長串安全創新，比如三點式安全帶、向后兒童座椅和各種氣囊，但沃爾沃的車型還是經常被定位為“次豪華”或是“入門級豪車”，瞄準的往往是那些更注重實用性而不是聲譽和性能的消費者。在老東家福特旗下時（1999至2010年），它的產品周期拉得越來越長，同時其他廠商也在安全性上追趕了上來，沃爾沃逐漸被市場忽視了。今年至今為止，它的銷量只有47,823輛（去年同期有52,112輛）。

????沃爾沃一向以“極其環保”著稱，這種聲譽曾經讓該公司受益良多。這次薩繆爾森也對這種聲譽寄予厚望，希望它能引起新一代消費者的共鳴。他在采訪中表示：“如果你注意社會目前的發展動向，你就會發現我們的品牌承諾與這種態勢是一致的。人們想要展示他們正在對安全和環境負責。我認為在未來，這將為沃爾沃品牌增添一種溢價。”

????但是薩繆爾森忽視了市場正在發生的變化，這種變化正在高低兩端給沃爾沃造成擠壓。首先，“德系三巨頭”一直在推出新車型，其中不少車型的價格都是過去所謂“入門級豪車”的價格。打個比方，現在想購買歐系車的消費者可以從奔馳和沃爾沃之間選一款。那么他是會選奔馳的“三角星”，還是沃爾沃的圓環加箭頭呢（沃爾沃的LOGO造型在瑞典是鐵的象征，但在美國則代表著男性象征）？對于沃爾沃來說，這是一個艱難的比較。

????與此同時，像豐田（Toyota）、現代（Hyundai）等平價品牌也在逐步添加高端功能、娛樂設施、安全配置和動力選擇。這樣一來，留給謳歌（Acura）、英菲尼迪（Infiniti）、林肯（Lincoln）或沃爾沃等中端品牌的空間已經很小了。汽車購買網站Edmunds.com的高級分析師杰西卡?卡德維爾指出：“沃爾沃的目標并不是完全不可能達到，但是即便沃爾沃的決策很完美，在如此激烈的競爭環境下，要想復蘇和增長還是極具挑戰性的。”

????特斯拉則陷入另一個同樣棘手的困境中。首先是有人擔心隨著銷量的增長，這款價值8萬美元的電動跑車所帶來的新奇感將逐漸下降。其次是《消費者報告》（Consumer Reports）稱，特斯拉目前還有大約2300臺沒有售出的2014款Model S（包括展車）正在打折銷售。

????一位博主在金融網站Seeking Alpha上指出，購買特斯拉的人中有一半以上可以被稱作“機會型購買者”。購買Model S是人們在名下已經擁有的汽車之外的額外消費，如果沒有特斯拉，他們也不會轉而購買任何一款豪車。他解釋道：“在未來幾年，特地調整自己的正常購買行為來買入Model S的人將變少。”

????要想實現他的宏大目標，埃隆?馬斯克必須要完成三件他以前未曾嘗試過的事情。

????? 他必須建立一個強有力的經銷網絡，以便提供試駕和售后服務、處理二手車交易。各州目前的特許經營法律使得特斯拉只能設立一些展廳，除了展示轎車以外，這些展廳幾乎做不了其他什么事情。

????? 他必須以汽車業前所未有的速度提高產能。馬斯克希望特斯拉的產能到2015年末翻一番，到2020年增長5倍。

????? 他必須成功地推出第三款全新產品，也就是價格更加親民的Gen III，并且要在不到Model S一半的價格上使它盈利。新車型要想成功是很難的，馬斯克已經數次推遲了第二款車型Model X的發布，現在它可能要等到2015年第三季度才能正式上市。

????馬斯克的特斯拉和吉利的沃爾沃是兩家非常不同的公司，彼此很少有相像之處。但是這一次，他們陷入了相同的窘境：要在設定的時間里完成預定的銷量，實現他們的“遠大目標”。（財富中文網）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Developing a true luxury brand that commands a premium price on the strength of its name can’t be done overnight, as Volvo should know. When he was running Lincoln, Jim Farley, who now heads Ford Europe, used to estimate that 15 to 20 years would be required to elevate Lincoln into the ranks of luxury players. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the only three authentic members of the group (excluding exotics like Ferrari and smaller makers like Jaguar) have been at it for decades and have earned their pedigrees with achievements in racing as well as in engineering and technology. Even Lexus doesn’t qualify for this elite grouping because of its weak standing outside the U.S and its lack of any racing credentials.

????Getting to the top tier requires a financial commitment that Volvo hasn’t made. Cadillac has invested billions of dollars in new models since 2000 in a bid to regain its luxury standing and still has more to do; it is now developing a V-8 powered flagship sedan for 2016. Volvo’s flagship is the 2015 XC90 sport utility, which is powered by a far-less imposing inline four-cylinder engine.

????Volvo hasn’t made its quixotic quest any easier with its recent performance. While it claims a long list of safety firsts—three-point seatbelts, rear-facing child seats, air bags—Volvo cars have always been positioned as sub- luxury or “entry luxe”, marketed to body of devoted fans who favor practicality over prestige and performance. Volvo was neglected during its years of ownership by Ford (1999-2010), as its product cycles stretched out longer and longer and other makers caught up on the safety front. 2007, and so far this year its sales have reached only 47,823 (vs. 52, 112 for the same period in 2013).

????Samuelsson is pinning his hopes on the belief that Volvo’s squeaky-clean reputation, which served it so well in the past, will resonate with a new generation of buyers. “If you look at what is happening in society, our brand promise is in line with developments,” he said in the interview. “People want to show that they are taking responsibility for safety and taking responsibility for the environment. I think in the future that will more and more be a premium value.”

????But Samuelsson overlooks changes in the market that will squeeze Volvo from both the bottom and the top. The German Three have been rolling out more and more new models, many at price points that used to be considered entry-luxe. Buyers shopping for a European brand can now choose between, say, Mercedes three-pointed star and Volvo’s ring and arrow emblem (a symbol for iron in Sweden but representing male sexuality in the U.S). That’s a tough comparison for Volvo.

????At the same time, volume brands like Toyota and Hyundai have been steadily adding upgraded features and entertainment, safety, and performance options that used to only be available on luxury models. That leaves very little space in the middle for brands like Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln – or Volvo. ” “Volvo’s goals aren’t completely unattainable but even if Volvo’s decisions are perfect, the competitive landscape is extremely challenging to thrive and grow in,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com., the car-shopping web site.

????Tesla finds itself in a different, if not equally difficult, dilemma. Worries are growing that there is a large novelty element attached to the appeal of his $80,000 battery-powered car that will be difficult to replicate as its sales volumes grow. Consumer Reports added fuel to the worries when it reported that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, which the company is selling at a discount.

????One Seeking Alpha blogger figures that more than half of Tesla buyers are what he describes as essentially opportunistic. The Model S became an unexpected addition to their fleet of cars, and if it hadn’t been available, they wouldn’t have bought another luxury sedan of any description. “In subsequent years,” he reasons, “there will be lower numbers of purchasers deliberately modifying their normal purchase behaviors in order to get a Model S.”

????For Musk to reach his outsize targets, he will have to accomplish three things that he hasn’t tried before.

????? He will have to develop a robust distribution system that can offer test drives, provide service, and handle trade-ins. State franchise laws are currently limiting Tesla to the establishment of showrooms that are capable of displaying cars but do little else.

????? He will have to scale up his production capacity at a rate that the auto industry has never seen before. Musk wants to double output by the end of 2015 and make five times as many cars by 2020.

????? He will have to successfully launch his third all-new product, the more affordable Gen III, and make it profitably for less than half of what the Model S sells for. New models are demanding. He’s already delayed the introduction of his second car, the Model X, several times, and now it isn’t due until 2015’s third quarter.

????Musk’s Tesla and Geely’s Volvo are two vastly different companies with attached narratives that bear little resemblance to each other. But at this point in time, they find themselves in the same predicament: Living up to dates and numbers that give new meaning to the term “stretch targets.”