????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家通常會遵守一條老規(guī)矩：做預(yù)測時，要么給個數(shù)字，要么給個日期，但不能兩個都給。但汽車業(yè)的高管們卻經(jīng)常忽略這條法則。就以沃爾沃（Volvo）和特斯拉（Tesla）為例，這兩家公司的名字很少會被拿出來相提并論，但是他們在設(shè)置未來的銷售目標(biāo)時都缺乏謹(jǐn)慎，這或許會給他們帶來大麻煩。

????經(jīng)過多年的浮浮沉沉，沃爾沃被新東家中國吉利汽車（Geely Motors）收購后，正在重新構(gòu)建產(chǎn)品線。沃爾沃不想再被認(rèn)為只是一家旅行車制造商，而是著眼于成為一個貨真價實(shí)的豪華車廠家，與其他頂級豪車品牌平起平坐。

????它的目標(biāo)雄心勃勃，激進(jìn)，甚至可以說大膽。現(xiàn)任CEO哈肯?薩繆爾森于2009年從慕尼黑卡車制造企業(yè)MAN公司跳槽至沃爾沃，在近日接受《汽車新聞》（Automotive News）采訪時，薩繆爾森意外地給沃爾沃的復(fù)蘇設(shè)置了非常大膽的目標(biāo)，其中包括：

????? 到2016年，使沃爾沃在美國市場的年銷量恢復(fù)到10萬臺以上；

????? 3至4年內(nèi)，進(jìn)入“全球豪車品牌的精英梯隊(duì)”；

????? 到2020年，全球銷量達(dá)到80萬臺。

????There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the auto industry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvo and Tesla TSLA -1.82% , two companies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.

????After years of drift, Volvo Cars is trying to rebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. No longer content to be solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvo has set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.

????Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort to reach them is CEO H?kan Samuelsson, who came to Volvo from Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:

????? A return to annual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;

????? Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three to four years;

????? Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.

????哪怕沃爾沃能實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)中的任何一個，薩繆爾森都會被瑞典人奉為神靈（沃爾沃的總部依然在瑞典）。但即使有吉利的支持，沃爾沃也仍然沒有足夠的規(guī)模、深度和資金來對高端車市的領(lǐng)頭羊們形成現(xiàn)實(shí)的挑戰(zhàn)。在沃爾沃靠邊站的這幾年，汽車行業(yè)的競爭變得更加激烈了，更何況沃爾沃現(xiàn)在幾乎是從頭開始。

????沃爾沃的目標(biāo)基本上在公眾視野之外，但特斯拉設(shè)定的雄偉目標(biāo)則不是這樣。該公司CEO埃隆?馬斯克可能已經(jīng)在Twitter上向全世界廣而告之。在去年賣出約2萬輛的基礎(chǔ)上，他宣稱到2020年，他要把美國市場的銷量提高10倍以上——25萬輛，全球銷量則要達(dá)到50萬輛。我們將在稍后探討這個目標(biāo)的可能性。

????If Volvo can hit just one of those targets, Samuelsson would be honored like a Norse god back in Sweden where Volvo’s headquarters remain. But even with Geely’s backing, Volvo doesn’t have the scale, depth, or wherewithal to make a serious challenge to the industry’s upscale leaders. Competition in the car business has only tightened in the past several years while Volvo has been sidelined, and it is starting anew from well back in the pack.

????While Volvo’s targets have mostly been set out of the public eye, the same can’t be said about the sales goals facing Tesla Motors. CEO Elon Musk might as well have tweeted his to the world at large. From around 20,000 cars sold last year, he has let it be known that he wants to be selling more than ten times that number—250,000—in the U.S by 2020, and 500,000 worldwide. We’ll take a longer look at his chances further on in this column.