????上周，中美就限制二氧化碳排放達(dá)成重大協(xié)議，這在應(yīng)對全球氣候變化方面是一個里程碑式的外交事件。理論上，世界上最大的兩個二氧化碳排放國最終同意就此采取行動將為明年的聯(lián)合國氣候變化峰會帶來積極影響。按照協(xié)議，到2025年，美國的溫室氣體排放量將比2005年下降26-28%；到2030年，中國將實(shí)現(xiàn)溫室氣體排放零增長。不過，問題在于，這些目標(biāo)能否真的實(shí)現(xiàn)。

????美國方面，中期選舉增強(qiáng)了共和黨的實(shí)力。該黨成員將阻止美國政府試圖履行協(xié)議中的自方責(zé)任。即將擔(dān)任參議院環(huán)境和公共工程委員會（Senate Environment and Public Works Committee）主席的俄克拉荷馬州共和黨參議員吉姆?英霍夫（Jim Inhofe）將中美之間的這份協(xié)議稱為“毫無約束力。”

????就履行這份雙邊協(xié)議而言，中國面臨的并非是政治難題，而是結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)：簡而言之，要降低溫室氣體排放增速，中國就必須壓縮煤炭行業(yè)規(guī)模。而煤電約占中國目前發(fā)電量的四分之三，這絕不是一項(xiàng)輕而易舉的工作。

????但中國政府必須采取行動，因?yàn)檫@個霧霾籠罩下的國家無法再安于現(xiàn)狀。而這份氣候協(xié)議正是中國應(yīng)對污染危機(jī)宏圖大略的一部分。

????就在中美宣布簽署協(xié)議前幾天，知名學(xué)府清華大學(xué)兩名研究人員所發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)報(bào)告顯示，燃煤引發(fā)的空氣污染每年都會造成約67萬人過早死亡，這再次突出了中國嚴(yán)重依賴煤電所付出的代價。清華大學(xué)副教授騰飛指出，中國每生產(chǎn)一噸煤，就會產(chǎn)生286元人民幣的環(huán)境和健康成本。而據(jù)世界煤炭協(xié)會（World Coal Association）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2013年中國生產(chǎn)了近40億噸煤炭。

????上述研究成果出爐前，世界衛(wèi)生組織（World Health Organization）曾于2011年在醫(yī)學(xué)雜志《柳葉刀》（The Lancet）上發(fā)表報(bào)告稱，2010年有120萬中國人死于各種空氣污染引發(fā)的疾病。同時，中國還是世界上死于礦難人數(shù)最多的國家：2013年有1049名生產(chǎn)人員死于煤礦事故，雖比上年下降了23%，但仍遠(yuǎn)高于世界其他國家。

????就在經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩造成中國電力需求下降之際，體現(xiàn)煤炭污染環(huán)境的證據(jù)越來越多，這給30年來一直以穩(wěn)定增長著稱的煤炭行業(yè)帶來了供給過剩危機(jī)。在中國產(chǎn)煤大省山西，山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)環(huán)境法教授曹霞認(rèn)為：中國在煤炭資源管理方面以及在煤炭行業(yè)發(fā)展史上已經(jīng)到了“一個非常關(guān)鍵的時刻。”

????中國煤炭行業(yè)規(guī)模龐大，煤炭產(chǎn)銷量幾乎和全球其他地區(qū)的總和相當(dāng)。除了在國內(nèi)造成的直接影響，這個行業(yè)產(chǎn)生的溫室氣體排放還給整個世界帶來了間接成本。除非中國削減煤炭消費(fèi)量，否則任何應(yīng)對氣候變化的國際性方案都無法獲得成功。

????費(fèi)格斯?格林（Fergus Green）和尼古拉斯?斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）在向倫敦氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策中心（Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy）提交的研究報(bào)告中寫道：“中國在今后10年采取的行動對中國和全球的未來都很關(guān)鍵。在這10年里，中國能否實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新和可持續(xù)的低碳增長將或多或少地決定中國的長期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景……也將決定全世界的溫室氣體減排幅度是否足以應(yīng)對氣候變化帶來的重大風(fēng)險。”

????This week’s landmark agreement between the U.S. and China on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide marks a significant diplomatic milestone in the struggle against global climate change. The fact that the two largest sources of CO2 have finally agreed to do something about it should, in theory, give a boost to next year’s United Nations climate summit. Whether the actual terms of the deal—which calls for the U.S. to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28%, compared to 2005 levels, by 2025, and for China to cap its emissions by 2030—have a realistic shot at being met is another question.

????On the U.S. side, Republicans emboldened by the midterm elections will work to block any attempt to fulfill America’s side of the bargain, which Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe, of Oklahoma, soon to be chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, called “a non-binding charade.”

????China’s challenge in meeting the terms of the bilateral agreement are not political but structural: simply put, to reduce emissions growth, China must reduce the size of its coal industry, which supplies some three-quarters of China’s electricity. That is no easy task.

????But Beijing must take action, because the smog-choked nation can hardly stick with the status quo. The climate deal is part of a larger strategy to address China’s pollution crisis.

????The costs of China’s heavy reliance on coal for power generation were highlighted again days before the deal with President Obama was announced, when a pair of researchers at the prestigious Tsinghua University released a study showing that around 670,000 people die prematurely every year as a result of air pollution from coal. Every ton of coal produced in China adds more than 286 yuan ($46) in environmental damage and health costs, reported Teng Fei, an associate professor at Tsinghua University. China produced nearly 4 billion tons of coal in 2013, according to the World Coal Association.

????The Tsinghua study follows a 2011 report by the World Health Organization, published in The Lancet, that estimated that 1.2 million people in China died in 2010 from diseases related to all forms of air pollution. China also has by far the deadliest mining industry in the world: One thousand forty-nine coal miners died in accidents in 2013, down 23% from the year before but still far more than any other country.

????Mounting evidence of coal’s environmental damage comes as China’s slowing economy has reduced demand for electricity, creating an oversupply crisis for an industry that has known nothing but steady growth for the last three decades. China has reached “a very critical moment in the management of its coal resources, and in the history of the coal industry,” says Cao Xia, a professor of environmental law at Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, in China’s coal heartland, Shanxi Province.

????The direct, domestic impacts of the nation’s massive coal industry, which produces and consumes about as much coal as the rest of the world combined, are added to the indirect, worldwide costs in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. No international program to combat climate change can succeed unless China slashes its burning of coal.

????“The actions China takes in the next decade will be critical for the future of China and the world,” wrote Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern in a research paper for the Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy, in London. “Whether China moves onto an innovative, sustainable, and low-carbon growth path this decade will more or less determine both China’s longer-term economic prospects … and the world’s prospects of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficiently to manage the grave risks of climate change.”