????

????隨著科技業(yè)初創(chuàng)公司的總估值達到驚人的180億美元，有一個問題始終揮之不去：現(xiàn)金充盈的硅谷是否正在經(jīng)歷另一場泡沫？上周四晚，在舊金山的“40位40歲以下商界精英”的聚會上，《財富》（Fortune）咨詢了其中五位科技專家對此的觀點。他們的回答也許會讓你吃驚。

????馬克?貝尼奧夫

????Salesforce.com首席執(zhí)行官

????“這不是科技泡沫，而是世界史上最大的創(chuàng)新浪潮。這是云、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、移動性和聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)品結(jié)合而產(chǎn)生的一股難以想象的強大力量。”

????“最好的一個例子就是蘋果支付(Apple Pay)，我今天還用了它。我去沃爾格林（Walgreens）買藥，把手機對準惠爾豐（Verifone）收款機，利用蘋果支付完成了一筆交易。蘋果支付是一個很棒的新平臺，會催生許多新公司。它將會引領(lǐng)一波新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資浪潮，所有的銷售終端系統(tǒng)都需要替換。此外，這對蘋果公司（Apple）來說也具有巨大的推動作用。”

????“你可以把這看成我們行業(yè)的一個隱喻：一些本不存在的東西轉(zhuǎn)眼就出現(xiàn)了，然后就改變了一切。所有的一切都在改變，從未有過如此有趣的時代。”

????喬?杰比亞

????房屋租賃服務(wù)商Airbnb公司聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席產(chǎn)品官

????“這一切都是個循環(huán)，對吧？只要看看過去60年的股市就知道了，這其實是一個循環(huán)。但我們目前沒有遭遇科技泡沫，因為科技公司正在獲取收入。我認為現(xiàn)在和14年前發(fā)生的事情是有區(qū)別的。如今的公司正在賺取真金白銀。”

????杰斯?李

????Polyvore公司首席執(zhí)行官和共同創(chuàng)始人

????“我確實認為我們遭遇了科技泡沫。有太多公司沒有商業(yè)模式或沒有可持續(xù)的商業(yè)模式。讓我頗為自豪的是，我們有自己的商業(yè)模式，但我認為接下來行業(yè)該有一定的調(diào)整了。”

????杰伊?西蒙斯

????Atlassian公司董事長

????“我相信現(xiàn)在看好市場的人非常多。無論有沒有泡沫，我認為人們都很樂觀。看看市盈率吧，除2000年以外，這是自1940年以來的最高值。”

????約什?泰特里克

????Hampton Creek公司首席執(zhí)行官

????“我不認為有泡沫。我覺得很多事情的好處和壞處都被夸大了。我認為，無論是對這種發(fā)展感到興奮，還是由于現(xiàn)在的情況很像過去的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫而感到沮喪，都是人之常情。最終，衰退總要來的，但我認為它來得不會這么快。

????從我的角度和我們的工作來看，我認為關(guān)于泡沫的議論太多了。但是那（某種航向修正）在一年半之內(nèi)不太可能出現(xiàn)。我們一直跟沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）、塔吉特百貨（Target）和全食超市（Whole Foods）等客戶保持接觸，試圖了解他們對當今局勢的看法和理解，最后得出了這樣的結(jié)論。看起來形勢是有些不太對頭，但現(xiàn)在說泡沫還為時尚早。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴匡正

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????With startups fetching valuations as high as $18 billion, one persistent question remains: Is cash-laden Silicon Valley in the throes of another bubble? Fortune sought out five tech folks at last night’s 40 Under 40 party in San Francisco on Thursday night for more insight. Their answers may surprise you.

????Marc Benioff

????CEO, Salesforce.com

????“It’s not a tech bubble. It’s the biggest wave of innovation in the history of the world. It’s a combining of unbelievable forces of cloud, social networks, mobility plus connected products.

????A great example of that is Apple Pay, which I’ve been using today. I went to Walgreens, I put my phone right up against the Verifone receiver, and I did a transaction on Apple Pay. Apple Pay is an amazing new platform. It’s going to help create new companies. It’s going to create a new wave of infrastructure investments where all the point-of-sale systems are going to have to be replaced. And then it’s a huge accelerator for Apple.

????You can just think of that as a metaphor happening in our industry for something that one day doesn’t exist, and the next day it does and how it can change everything. Everything is changing, and there’s never been a more exciting time.”

????Joe Gebbia

????Chief product officer and co-founder, Airbnb

????“It’s all cyclical, right? Just take a look at the stock market over the last 60 years. There’s a cycle involved. But we’re not in a tech bubble because companies are making revenues. And I think that was a major difference between what’s happening right now and what’s happening 14 years ago. Companies today are making real money.”

????Jess Lee

????CEO and co-founder, Polyvore

????“I do think we’re in a bubble. There are too many companies with no business model or no sustainable business model. I’m proud that we have one, but I think there’s going to be some kind of correction.”

?????Jay Simons

????President, Atlassian

????“I believe there’s a lot of optimism in the market right now. Whether there’s a bubble or not a bubble, I believe people are just optimistic. Look at the fact that the PE [price-earnings] ratio is the highest it’s been since 1940 with the exception of 2000.”

????Josh Tetrick

????CEO, Hampton Creek

????“I don’t. I think a lot of things are overstated on the good and the bad. And I think it’s just human nature to get excited about things and to get too depressed when it looks like something. Eventually, there will be a downturn, but I don’t see it coming any time soon.

????I think from my perspective and what we’re doing, I think there’s so much noise about there being a bubble. But that [any sort of course correction] is more likely than not to be a year-and-a-half off. And that’s a result of all the customers we’re dealing with from Wal-Mart to Target to Whole Foods and just trying to get a sense of how they’re thinking and just understanding their environment. Feels like it’s a bit off. But it’s not now.”