????世界銀行（World Bank）中西非能源專家梅克?范?辛內(nèi)肯認為，該地區(qū)的水電、地熱和天然氣開發(fā)潛力巨大，但是她同時承認“這需要增加大量的投資”，尤其是來自于私營部門的投資，還需要加強電力輸送系統(tǒng)的建設(shè)。

????“問題是，如何將這些巨量的資源轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦嗟碾娏?yīng)？”范?辛內(nèi)肯說，“這就需要大量的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、高效的公用事業(yè)部門以及大量的投資。過去二十年來對非洲的投資非常少，但最近五年來能源投資的規(guī)模較大。所以，非洲正在迎頭趕上。”

????該報告指出，為了確保到2040年非洲的能源資源有效改善該地區(qū)的生活水平，并且促進經(jīng)濟增長，需要對能源部門增加4,500億美元的投資。此外，該報告還呼吁，進行區(qū)域合作來促成大規(guī)模的發(fā)電及輸電項目，以及采取“嚴格透明”的管理流程來“更為有效地利用”油氣收入。

????范?辛內(nèi)肯指出，作為110億美元能源投資的一部分，世界銀行對區(qū)域合作的支持包括今年為班達天然氣發(fā)電項目（Banda Gas-to-Power Project）提供的2.61億美元擔保，該項目利用毛里塔尼亞近海天然氣田的天然氣，可為該國新增300兆瓦電力，并可出口到馬里和塞內(nèi)加爾。

????這些項目還包括對區(qū)域電網(wǎng)及農(nóng)村電氣化改造的投資，如微型電網(wǎng)和離網(wǎng)太陽能發(fā)電。

????范?辛內(nèi)肯進一步介紹說：“區(qū)域合作和搭建區(qū)域電網(wǎng)在降低成本方面非常關(guān)鍵，對私營部門更具吸引力，家庭用戶也更容易負擔。”

????如果實施一些變革，可再生能源也可以迎來新的發(fā)展機遇。據(jù)國際能源署預(yù)計，到2040年，可再生能源將占新增電力的一半左右。例如，水電目前占電力供給的20%，但僅有10%的技術(shù)潛力得到了利用。

????非洲開發(fā)銀行（African Development Bank）能源、環(huán)境及氣候變化部門（Energy, Environment and Climate Change Department）主任阿歷克斯?魯甘馬指出，他也承認，對可再生能源的利用，將使得非洲有望走上比其周邊的發(fā)達國家更為環(huán)保的發(fā)展道路。

????魯甘馬說：“確實，（非洲的）各種能源，包括地熱、風能、太陽能，當然還有水電，潛力都非常大。我們肯定都會大力開發(fā)。”他還指出，2007年至2012年，非洲開發(fā)銀行對能源部門的融資增加了一倍，達到430萬美元。

????他表示，可再生能源發(fā)展所遇到的挑戰(zhàn)包括太陽能高昂的前期資本投入，以及私營部門對地熱行業(yè)投資的缺乏。“在蒸汽儲量沒有探明的情況下，私營部門通常不愿意投資地熱資源。”魯甘馬介紹說，“目前有一些降低此類風險的計劃正在醞釀之中，以吸引更多私營投資進入地熱資源領(lǐng)域。”

????范?辛內(nèi)肯和比羅爾均表示，他們有足夠的信心相信，非洲會在能源行業(yè)做出必要的改革，國際能源署預(yù)測，到2040年該行業(yè)可推動當?shù)亟?jīng)濟增長30%。

????比羅爾表示，他已經(jīng)看到幾個國家率先對能源行業(yè)進行改革，其中包括尼日利亞、南非、加納和盧旺達。與此同時，安哥拉正蓄勢待發(fā)，有望取代尼日利亞成為非洲大陸最大的能源生產(chǎn)國，而坦桑尼亞和莫桑比克也計劃充分利用其豐富的天然氣資源。

????“我看到一些非洲國家開始認識到能源的重要性，并且積極進行能源改革，這種勢頭正在不斷增長，”他說，“從好的治理模式，特別是有所改善的管理方式中，我看到了希望。我們有理由期待，能源業(yè)將成為帶動非洲大陸經(jīng)濟增長的有力引擎。”

????范?辛內(nèi)肯對此表示認同。她指出，在過去七年對能源行業(yè)的持續(xù)關(guān)注中，她已經(jīng)看到了一些重要的變化。

????“我的確看到非洲在轉(zhuǎn)變。”她肯定地說，“過去幾年能源業(yè)的投資比過去二十年高出很多。這意味著可利用的能源資源有所增加，透明度也在得到改善，在非洲大裂谷（Rift Valley，位于東非）發(fā)現(xiàn)的天然氣和地熱資源也昭示著未來的巨大潛力。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????Meike van Ginneken, a World Bank expert on energy for west and central Africa, said she saw a lot of potential for hydropower, geothermal and natural gas across the region but agreed “investment needed to be increased tremendously” especially from the private sector and the building of power delivery systems.

????“The question is how do you translate these large resources into increased access?” Van Ginneken said. “What you need for that is a lot of infrastructure, functioning utilities and a lot of money. While there is a lot investment in energy in Africa in the past five years, there has a period of two decades where there was very little investment. So, Africa is catching up.”

????To ensure that the energy resources improve living standards and contribute to stronger economic growth by 2040, the report calls for investment of an additional $450 billion in the power sector. It also calls for regional cooperation that could lead to large-scale generation and transmission projects as well as the adoption of “robust and transparent” processes that would result in “more effective use” of oil and gas revenues.

????As part of its $11 billion in energy investments in Africa, van Ginneken said the World Bank has supported regional cooperation including the $261 million in guarantees this year for the Banda Gas-to-Power Project which will produce and convert natural gas from offshore gas fields in Mauritania into 300 megawatts of new electricity for the country and for export to Mali and Senegal.

????They are also investing in regional transmission grids and setting up rural electrification projects including min-grids and off-grid solar power.

????“Regional cooperation and regional power grids will play an important role in bringing down cost which will make it more attractive for the private sector and more affordable for households,” van Ginneken said.

????If some of the changes are enacted, renewables could also take off with the IEA projecting they could represent almost half the growth in electricity generation by 2040. Hydro, for example, represents 20% of the region’s power supply currently but only 10% of its technical potential has been realized.

????Alex Rugamba, director of the Energy, Environment and Climate Change Department at the African Development Bank, agreed that renewables offer a chance for the continent to pursue a greener path than the one chose by its more developed neighbors.

????“Certainly, the potential is high and we are seeing very good take up of all sorts of geothermal, wind, solar and, of course, hydro. We are definitely committed,” Rugamba said, adding that the bank has doubled its financing to the sector to $4.3 million from 2007 to 2012.

????Among the challenges, he said, were the high, upfront capital cost of solar and the lack of private sector investment into the geothermal sector. “The private sector is often reluctant about geothermal without proven reserves of steam,” Rugamba said. “There are some schemes underway to mitigate those risk so we get more private investment into geothermal.”

????Both van Ginneken and Birol said they were confident Africa will make the changes necessary in the energy sector, which the IEA projected could boost the economy 30% by 2040.

????Birol said he is already seeing several countries take the lead in reforming their energy sectors, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana and Rwanda. Angola, meanwhile, is poised to overtake Nigeria as the continents biggest energy producer while Tanzania and Mozambique are set to take advantage of significant natural gas discoveries.

????“I see a momentum being built in many African countries that are understanding the critical importance of energy and making some energy sector reforms,” he said. “I see hope there with good governance especially with better management. We could see the energy sector provide a strong trigger for economic growth on the continent.”

????Van Ginneken agreed, saying she has seen significant changes since she has been covering the sector the past seven years.

????“I certainly see Africa turning a corner,” she said. “The investment in the energy sector in the past few years has been much higher than the two decades before. This is translating into more access to resources, transparency is being improved and the potential of Africa with finds of gas and geothermal in the Rift Valley (in East Africa) is tremendous.”