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國際能源署報告:走出能源困境非洲需加大改革力度

國際能源署報告:走出能源困境非洲需加大改革力度

Michael Casey 2014-10-17
國際能源署表示,撒哈拉以南地區的國家必須實施改革,升級基礎設施。

????對于撒哈拉以南非洲地區來說,未來數十年里,豐富的能源資源有望成為其強勁增長的催化劑,但是前提是這些國家必須推進改革并升級基礎設施。

????國際能源署(International Energy Agency)本周發布的一份報告顯示,撒哈拉以南非洲地區的國家必須實施改革來吸引投資者,并投入數千億美元對陳舊落后的基礎設施進行升級改造。

????《非洲能源展望》(African Energy Outlook)報告發現,在過去五年里,全球探明的石油和天然氣有30%來自撒哈拉以南非洲地區——該地區包括撒哈拉沙漠以南的若干國家。但與此同時,在當地9.15億人口當中,僅有2.9億人可以使用電力。這個人口基數只會不斷增長。

????更糟糕的是,由于電力供應不足,該地區有五分之四的人口主要依靠柴禾和木炭做飯。預計到2040年,數值還將增長40%,熱帶雨林面臨砍伐過度的險境,并且將進一步加重室內污染問題——室內污染已成為致使該地區人口早夭的第二大原因,僅次于艾滋病(AIDS)。

????“據我了解,撒哈拉以南非洲地區的能源資源非常豐富,但能源供應和生產卻極度不足,”國際能源署首席經濟學家法蒂赫?比羅爾在接受《財富》(Fortune)雜志的采訪時表示。

????他介紹說:“這些地區蘊藏著巨大的石油和天然氣發展潛力,并且在可再生能源方面,比如水電、風能和太陽能,潛力也都非常可觀。而另一方面,非洲人民現有的可用能源卻極度匱乏。”

????長期以來,非洲一直處于能源困境。像赤道幾內亞或剛果共和國等石油、天然氣和礦產資源豐富的國家,有極少的一部分人富了起來,但這些國家腐敗泛濫,多數市民仍處于貧困之中。此外,能源資源是蘇丹和尼日尼亞等國家地緣沖突的導火索,同時也是該地區長年發生政變和政治動蕩的原因之一。

????國際能源署的報告中顯示,除非各國采取措施應對能源領域的一系列問題,比如解決盛行的石油偷盜(每年為尼日利亞造成損失達50億美元)和降低電價(這里是全球電價最高的地區之一),否則情況還會繼續惡化。另外,腐敗仍是在一些國家投資的“主要障礙”。

????“這里存在兩個主要的掣肘——投資匱乏以及政府管理問題,”比羅爾表示,該地區能源業每年需要大約1.4億美元的投資。

????“有一些投資進入該地區,但是我們的研究顯示,目前非洲有三分之二的投資都是出口相關項目,而不是服務于非洲人民,”他評價說,“在我們看來,如果政府管理問題得不到解決,就不可能吸引投資。”

????Sub-Saharan Africa’s vast energy resources could be a catalyst for strong growth in the coming decades, but only if countries push through reforms and upgrade their infrastructures.

????According to a report released Monday by the International Energy Agency, countries in the region must enact reforms that will attract investors and spend the hundred of billions needed to upgrade aging and poorly functioning infrastructures.

????The African Energy Outlook found that 30% of global oil and gas discoveries made over the past five years were from sub-Saharan Africa, which includes countries south of the Sahara desert. But at the same time only 290 million out of 915 million people have access to electricity. That figure is only rising.

????Worse, four out of five people in the region depend on firewood and charcoal mainly for cooking due to the lack of electricity. The projection is that figure will rise 40 percent by 2040, putting tropical forests at risk and further contributing to indoor pollution that is already the second biggest cause of premature death behind AIDS in the region.

????“When I look at the continent, sub-Saharan Africa is very rich in energy resources and very poor in energy supply and production,” IEA Chief Economist FatihBirol told Fortune.

????“There is huge potential both for oil and gas and, when it comes to renewables, huge potential for hydropower, wind and solar,” he said. “On the other hand, there is very little energy for the people in Africa.”

????Africa has long been plagued by the resource curse, where abundant oil, gas and minerals in places like Equatorial Guinea or the Republic of Congo have made a select few rich, led to widespread corruption and left the majority of citizens poor. The energy resources have also sparked conflict in countries such as Sudan and Nigeria, and have contributed to years of coups and political unrest.

????That trend is set to continue, the IEA report said, unless countries tackle the range of problems that hinder the energy sector, from widespread oil theft (worth $5 billion a year in Nigeria) to electricity tariffs across the region, which are among the highest in the world. Corruption, too, remains a “major barrier” to investment in some countries.

????“There are two major issues here — the lack of investment and the second one is the governance issue,” Birol said of the need for about $140 million a year across the region for the energy sector.

????“There are investments coming into the region but our study shows that today $2 out of $3 in Africa is for export-related projects not for the Africans,” he said. “We don’t see the investments can come if the governance issue is not fixed.”

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