????“我預計部分投資者有想法”

????在科技行業，錢伯斯擔任首席執行官達二十年，這確實不尋常，但并非前所未有。目前的首席執行官中，動視暴雪（Activision Blizzard）的羅伯特?科蒂克、微芯科技（Microchip Technology）的史蒂夫?桑吉和Nvidia的黃仁勛，任期都超過了錢伯斯。Concur公司的史蒂芬?辛格和亞馬遜（Amazon）的杰夫?貝佐斯的任期也沒短多少。

????金說道：“IT行業首席執行官通常對自己的職業道路有決定權，除非客戶或股東對他們失去信心。這通常有三種情況：首席執行官錯過了行業的關鍵變革，在失敗的產品上浪費大量資金，或未能向大型機構投資者提供理想的回報?！?/p>

????就錢伯斯的情況來看，最后一個原因是最迫切的問題。金說道：“就像在鮑爾默領導下的微軟一樣，過去十年，思科的股價一直陷于每股15美元至每股30美元的狹窄交易區間，而且思科股票也未能從重大的市場上漲中受益，在目前的市場漲勢中也是如此。由于公司提供的股息較少，目前每股股息為0.19美元，而微軟每股股息為0.28美元，IBM每股股息為1.10美元，我預計部分思科投資者可能有更換領導人的想法?！?/p>

????簡化戰略規劃中心(Center for Simplified Strategic Planning)總裁兼首席執行官羅伯特?布拉德福德表示，思科的高管人員中有大量頂尖人才。他說：“如果公司處于更加艱難的戰略形勢下，思科可能會從外部聘請領導者。鑒于公司高管人員的表現，我認為不會從外部聘任。”

????高管理發展協會（Institute of Executive Development）創始人兼首席執行官斯科特?薩洛表示，錢伯斯已為順利交接做好了一切準備。目前看來這個過程“近乎完美”，他表示，錢伯斯在幾年前就宣布了退休的意圖；他提出了具體高管人員作為繼任者內部候選人；他離任時公司的財務狀況將非常穩健。薩洛說：“同時做到這三點很難得。”

????薩洛補充道：“大部分董事會在面臨轉型時沒有思科那么幸運。絕大多數董事會認為，他們沒有足夠的繼任者來擔任首席執行官一職。而錢伯斯表示，思科有好幾位候選人，在這方面，該公司似乎遙遙領先于同行?！?/p>

????思科的退休傳聞，一度令451 Research公司的分析師雷諾甚為擔憂。現在他不再擔憂了。雷諾說：“最近幾年，約翰制定了良好的繼任計劃，并為不可避免的過渡，準備了強大的候選人陣容。不是每個首席執行官都能做到這一點，我要說，他的候選人陣容是我見過最強大的。如果錢伯斯退休，思科將運營良好。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：Lina

????‘I expect some investors are wondering’

????Chambers’ two-decade tenure is relatively unusual in the technology industry, but it’s far from unprecedented. Of those chief executives active in the role today, Activision Blizzard’s Robert Kotick, Microchip Technology’s Steve Sanghi, and Nvidia’s Jen-Hsun Huang exceed Chambers’ tenure. Concur’s Steven Singh and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos aren’t far behind.

????“IT CEOs typically call the shots on their career paths until they lose the faith of their customers or shareholders,” King says. That usually happens in one of three ways: Either the CEO misses a key evolutionary shift in the industry, wastes money on unsuccessful products, or fails to deliver the returns desired by large institutional investors, he says.

????In Chambers’ case, the last reason is the most pressing. “Much like Microsoft under [Steve] Ballmer, Cisco shares have for the past decade been mired in a fairly narrow trading range—between $15 and $30—and the stock has mostly failed to catch fire in major market advances, including the one currently under way,” King says. “Since the company offers only relatively small dividends—currently $0.19 per share, compared to $0.28 per share for Microsoft and $1.10 per share for IBM—I expect some Cisco investors are wondering how the company might fare under a different leader.”

????Cisco has plenty of top talent in its executive suite, says Robert Bradford, president and CEO of the Center for Simplified Strategic Planning. “If the company were in a more difficult strategic situation, they might look outside,” he says. “Given their performance, I wouldn’t.”

????Chambers has done all the right things to ensure a smooth succession, says Scott Saslow, founder and CEO of the Institute of Executive Development. The process so far seems “near perfect,” he says: Chambers has pre-announced his intentions years in advance; he has mentioned specific executives who are internal candidates for the job; he would leave the company on very solid financial footing. “It is rare to see all three of these conditions,” Saslow says.

????Most boards of directors facing a transition aren’t as lucky as Cisco’s will be, Saslowadds. “The vast majority don’t think they have enough ready successors for the CEO position,” Saslow says. “Given that Chambers has stated that Cisco has several, they appear to be way ahead of the market.”

????Cisco’s retirement rumors once worried Renaud, the 451 Research analyst. That’s no longer so. “John has done a great job in recent years of building a succession plan and strong bench in preparation for an inevitable transition,” Renaud says. “That wasn’t always the case, and I’d say his bench now is the strongest I’ve ever seen it. If he was going to retire, the company would be left in good shape.”