????今后幾年，阿里巴巴（Alibaba）必須保持飛速增長，以回饋投資者，對于這一點，沒人會提出異議，阿里巴巴董事長馬云更不會有異議。但問題在于，要實現(xiàn)其承諾的收入和利潤快速增長，阿里巴巴應該把財力和人力集中在哪里？

????要應對這項挑戰(zhàn)，需要有高度集中的增長戰(zhàn)略。而眼下，阿里巴巴的擴張計劃可謂一團亂麻。

????阿里巴巴長期以來的目標是主導本土市場，然而，最近該公司又決心在全球市場上大展宏圖，這兩項使命之間的偏差令投資者困惑。他們也確實應該感到困惑。在9月5日提交的招股說明書里，電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴幾乎沒有提到海外擴張計劃。相反，招股書大談特談阿里巴巴在國內占據主導地位，并且其定位絕佳，可從數字購物增長浪潮中獲益良多。數字購物浪潮可謂史上一大消費趨勢。

????為說明這一點，招股書列舉了一系列令人咋舌的數據，這也是招股書的亮點之一。這些數據包括：阿里巴巴一年處理的線上訂單額高達2980億美元；在蓬勃發(fā)展的移動購物領域，阿里巴巴控制著86%的市場份額。簡單來說，這份長達665頁的招股書可以用一句話來概括，那就是“中國是我們的未來”。

????然而，在最近的IPO路演上，馬云一直在宣揚另一種截然不同的戰(zhàn)略。9月15日，他在香港對記者表示，阿里巴巴意欲在美國和歐洲大展拳腳。隨后，他又在舊金山盛贊阿里巴巴在俄羅斯和巴西發(fā)展前景廣闊。

????對此，服務企業(yè)用戶的全球貿易數據供應商Panjiva聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官喬希?格林表示：“他們的戰(zhàn)略不清晰。招股書中大書特書在中國的機會，而馬云現(xiàn)在講的卻是全球發(fā)展大計?，F(xiàn)在阿里巴巴如日中天，這樣做也許沒問題。但中期而言，如果投資戰(zhàn)略前后不一，將招來投資者警惕的目光?！?/p>

????格林認為，阿里巴巴應該鞏固在中國的主導地位。他表示：“他們從事的是網絡業(yè)務，在本土吸引的消費者越多，隨之而來的商戶就越多，而新的產品反過來又會吸引更多消費者，用戶群的增長會呈現(xiàn)相輔相成之勢?！?/p>

????投資阿里巴巴就相當于把寶全押在中國身上，而明天的中國也許不會像過去十年那樣風光無限，特別是考慮到近來中國經濟增長放緩、房產價格和建設規(guī)模存在螺旋下跌風險。不過，在自己已經是龍頭的領域進一步做強合情合理。

????讓人意外的是，雖然嘴上不那么說，但阿里巴巴的行動表明，該公司對中國電商發(fā)展奇跡的未來并不是特別有信心。阿里巴巴并沒有把注意力完全放在數字領域，而是收購了許多和電商無關的業(yè)務，包括電影公司、家電制造商和足球俱樂部。

????格林說：“我想問問阿里巴巴，他們對中國的態(tài)度是樂觀還是悲觀。如果樂觀，他們就應該利用自己的領先地位，竭盡全力發(fā)揮主導優(yōu)勢?！?/p>

????No one disputes that to reward investors, Alibaba must keep growing at tremendous speed in the years to come, least of all its chairman Jack Ma. The question is, where will Alibaba concentrate its investments and manpower to generate the fast-rising revenues and profits it’s promising?

????That challenge will require a highly focused growth strategy. Right now, Alibaba’s plans for expansion are a muddle.

????Investors are confused—or if they’re not, they should be—by the dissonance between Alibaba’s long-standing goal of dominating its home market and its newfound mission to become a major force around the globe. In its most recent IPO prospectus, filed on September 5, the e-commerce phenomenon makes little mention of plans to expand outside its home market. Instead, it touts Alibaba’s commanding position in China and its ideal positioning to ride the growth wave in digital shopping, which is one of the great consumer trends in history.

????To make its point, the prospectus is famously packed with staggering statistics, among them that Alibaba handles $298 billion a year in online retail orders and controls 86% of the mushrooming mobile marketplace. Put simply, you could summarize the 665-page prospectus in four words, “China is our future.”

????But on its recent IPO roadshow, Ma has been selling a totally different strategy. On September 15 in Hong Kong, Ma told reporters that Alibaba harbors big growth ambitions in the U.S. and Europe. And later in San Francisco, he lauded Alibaba’s prospects in Russia and Brazil.

????“It’s not clear what their strategy is,” says Josh Green, co-founder and CEO of Panjiva, a firm that provides global trade data to corporate customers. “The prospectus is all about opportunities in China, and Ma is now talking about his global ambitions. It may be all right for now because they’re doing so well, but in the medium-term, investors will look with a wary eye on any investment that doesn’t have a coherent strategy.”

????Green believes that Alibaba ought to deepen its dominance in China. “They’re in a network business,” he says. “The more customers they attract at home, the more businesses follow, then more customers want the new products, and the customer base grows in a mutually reinforcing cycle.”

????Investing in Alibaba constitutes a bet on a single nation, and the China of tomorrow may not prove the juggernaut of the past decade, particularly given the recent news of its slowing growth rate and the threat of a downward spiral in real estate prices and construction. Still, getting stronger in the areas in which you’re already a leader makes sense.

????Surprisingly, Alibaba—by its action, rather than its words—isn’t showing a lot of confidence in the next phase of China’s e-commerce miracle. Rather than concentrating solely on digital, it is buying lots of unrelated businesses, including a movie studio, an appliance manufacturer, and a soccer team.

????“I’d like to ask Alibaba if they’re bullish or bearish on China,” asks Green. “If they’re bullish, they’d use their poll position to do everything to exploit their dominance.”