????但這可能使人產(chǎn)生誤解。按照經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢進(jìn)行調(diào)整后，政府赤字實(shí)際上會(huì)變大。正如國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室和其他機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)的那樣，今后幾年的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)處于長期緩慢復(fù)蘇狀態(tài)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)差不多要到2018年才會(huì)非常接近充分就業(yè)水平。隨著稅收逐漸增多，失業(yè)救濟(jì)等支出項(xiàng)目不斷減少，經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)將自動(dòng)降低赤字。為區(qū)分經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用和政策的作用，分析師考察的是剔除了周期性因素的赤字，它消除了經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的影響，以便更有意義地觀察赤字情況。

????如圖所示，剔除周期性因素后，今后十年政府赤字預(yù)計(jì)將急劇上升，今明兩年將占GDP的1.5%左右，隨后幾年這個(gè)比例將超過3.5%（在更為現(xiàn)實(shí)的財(cái)政環(huán)境下，隨后幾年的政府赤字占GDP的比率將達(dá)到約3.8%）。在充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)下，赤字占GDP的比率達(dá)到3.5%是個(gè)嚴(yán)重問題——這是1990年以來的最高點(diǎn)。當(dāng)時(shí)，決策者認(rèn)為赤字致使布什總統(tǒng)違背了他自己做出的“仔細(xì)聽著，我不會(huì)增加稅收”這一承諾，并促使國會(huì)通過了一攬子削減赤字措施，還進(jìn)行了重大預(yù)算改革。

????長期財(cái)政政策不會(huì)帶來危機(jī)。它甚至都不是目前美國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最重要問題——現(xiàn)在最重要的是加快經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。財(cái)政情況不應(yīng)該妨礙基于這些原則而進(jìn)行的調(diào)整。在過去幾年中，對赤字的預(yù)期不斷下降，而且存在不確定性。

????不過，不要把這些和宣稱我們贏得了債務(wù)戰(zhàn)爭勝利混為一談。我們還有很長的路要走，還需要用合適的方法在合適的時(shí)候通過選擇財(cái)政政策來爭取很多東西。

????比爾?蓋爾在布魯金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）經(jīng)濟(jì)研究項(xiàng)目Arjay and Frances Miller Chair教席研究員，專攻聯(lián)邦經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，是稅收政策、財(cái)政問題、退休金和儲蓄行為專家。他還是該研究所稅收政策中心聯(lián)席主任和退休保障項(xiàng)目的負(fù)責(zé)人。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者：Charlie

????But this can be misleading. Adjusted for the state of the economy, the deficit is actually getting bigger. As CBO and others project, the long, slow economic recovery will continue the next few years, bringing the economy very close to full employment by about 2018. The improvement of the economy reduces the deficit automatically as tax receipts rise and payments for programs like unemployment compensation fall. To separate the effects of the economy from the effects of policies, analysts examine the cyclically adjusted deficit, which removes the effects of the business cycle for a more meaningful look at the state of the deficit.

????As shown in the figure, the cyclically adjusted deficit is projected to rise sharply over the decade, from about 1.5% of GDP this year and next to more than 3.5% in the out years. (Under a more realistic alternative fiscal scenario, the cyclically adjusted deficit rises to about 3.8 % of GDP in the out years.) A full employment deficit of 3.5% of GDP is serious — the highest since 1990, when policy makers saw deficits caused Bush to violate his own “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge and led lawmakers to enact a deficit reduction package and significant budget reforms.

????Long-term fiscal policy is not a crisis. It is not even the most important issue facing the economy this moment – strengthening the recovery is – and the fiscal situation should not stand in the way of changes along those lines. Deficit projections have come down the last few years and are subject to uncertainty.

????But don’t confuse these points with claims of victory in the debt wars. There is still a long way to go and a lot to gain from dealing with fiscal policy choices – in the right way at the right time.

????Bill Gale, the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy in the Economic Studies Program at Brookings Institution, is an expert on tax policy, fiscal issues, pensions, and saving behavior. He is also co-director of the Tax Policy Center and director of the Retirement Security Project at Brookings.