????規?；?。一個公司不可能每天都發射火箭——全球各地的發射時間和基礎設施都非常有限。而如果要保持目前的發展軌跡，Space X公司就要實現規?；?。一個位于博卡奇卡海灘（Boca Chica Beach，地處德州和墨西哥邊境）的全新發射裝置——該公司已經在佛羅里達州卡納維拉爾角建立了發射裝置——將提供更大的發射能力，不再受到無法掌控的其他因素影響。但在保持可靠性和安全記錄的同時，該公司還必須提高火箭的生產能力，從而使這項據稱是該公司的最大試驗得以繼續進行。馬麗嘉稱：“如果公司今年能發射8次，那就很棒了。他們說今后每年能發射10到15次，真能這樣的話，那肯定會對其他對手構成重大威脅?！?/p>

????重復使用能力。今年Space X開始試驗可重復使用的一級火箭，將來它可以回收、翻新，多次發射?？紤]到航空發射企業絕大多數沉沒成本都是發射一次即告銷毀的多級火箭帶來的，這種新型火箭將極大改善航空發射的經濟性。

????最后這一點尤其重要，因為它將再次影響該公司競爭的跟進能力。New Space Global公司的戴維表示，每次火箭發射中推進劑的成本占十分之三。其他成本主要來自拋掉剩余硬件。其中又有四分之三和一級火箭有關。對總價值高達2000億美元的衛星發射市場來說，解決重復使用的問題不僅能大幅降低發射成本，第一個能實現這一點的公司還將帶來大量新客戶。Space X的可重復使用一級火箭技術還有待成熟完善，但它確實是唯一一家開展這類試驗的公司。

????在競爭對手紛紛縮減開支、重組并學會競爭之際，Space X的真正價值與其能募得多少資金關系不大，而是更多地與該公司能否可靠地擴大生產規模有關。商業航空發射業正處于“適者生存、優勝劣汰”的關鍵歷史關頭。就目前而言，是Space X正在推動整個行業的發展。

????戴維表示：“如果大家擔心鷹隼9號火箭的成本太高，他們也應該放眼展望未來，因為Space X公司正在開始做所有卓越科技公司都會做的事情：顛覆自己的技術?，F在只是關注鷹隼9號并想和它一決雌雄，同時無視未來大勢，就好比多年前當蘋果公司（Apple）首次推出iPod時，競爭對手一心想擊敗這款產品，卻不考慮蘋果將來可能推出iPhone和iPad一樣。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：清遠

????Scalability. Launching rockets isn’t the kind of thing a company can do every single day—there are limited launch windows and a limited amount of infrastructure in the world capable of launching them. To continue on its current trajectory, SpaceX has to scale. A new dedicated launch facility at Boca Chica Beach on the Texas-Mexico border—it already launches from Cape Canaveral in Florida—will offer greater capacity to launch independent of other factors beyond its control. But SpaceX will also have to scale its rocket production capacity while maintaining its record of reliability and safety, making this arguably the company’s biggest test going forward. “If they can get up to eight [launches this year] that’s great,” Maliga says. “They say they’ll do 10 to 15 per year, and if they get to that point that would be quite a threat.”

????Reusability. This year, SpaceX began experimenting with reusable first rocket stages that could one day be recovered, refurbished, and used for multiple flights. Considering most of the sunk costs in the space launch enterprise go into rocket stages that are used once and destroyed, this could significantly alter the economics of space launch.

????That last point is particularly important, as it will once again impact SpaceX’s competitors ability to keep pace. Three-tenths of one percent of the cost of a rocket launch is tied up in the propellant, New Space Global’s David says. Most of the remaining cost comes from throwing away the rest of the hardware. Of that, three quarters is tied up in the first rocket stage. Solving the reusability problem will not only drive down the cost of launch for the $200 billion satellite market, but the first company to get there will open up space for a host of new customers as well. SpaceX still has a ways to go before its reusable first stage technology is anywhere near mature, but it’s the only company actually experimenting with anything of the sort.

????SpaceX’s true value has less to do with how much money it has raised and more more to do both with its ability to reliably scale as its competitors retrench, regroup, and learn to compete. The commercial space launch industry is in the midst of an adapt-or-die moment. For now, SpaceX is driving it.

????“If everyone is worried about the cost of the Falcon 9, they also should be looking down the road because SpaceX is already doing what all good tech companies do: disrupting its own technology,” David says. “Looking at the Falcon 9 today and attempting to compete with it while ignoring the future is like being a competitor to Apple many years ago when they first introduced the iPod and neglecting to consider the possibility of the iPhone and the iPad.”