????麥當勞（McDonald’s）最近可謂屋漏偏逢連夜雨。

????上個月，麥當勞在中國爆出食品安全丑聞，銷量受到重挫；同時，美國本土的銷售長期以來萎靡不振。而雪上加霜的是，這家全球最大的餐廳連鎖店現(xiàn)在又面臨新的經(jīng)營威脅：由于美國以俄羅斯挑起烏克蘭沖突為由對其實行制裁，俄羅斯采取了報復行動，這使得麥當勞成為遭殃的“池魚”，其在俄羅斯的門店可能面臨大規(guī)模停業(yè)。

????俄羅斯消費者權益保護部門Rospotrebnadzor周三表示，由于發(fā)現(xiàn)存在違反衛(wèi)生管理條例的情況，將暫時關閉位于莫斯科黃金地段的四家麥當勞門店。隨后，其它幾個地區(qū)的管理部門也在周四效仿跟進，他們放消息給當?shù)孛襟w，稱未來幾天內(nèi)將進行大規(guī)模檢查。不過，國際文傳電訊社（Interfax）援引俄羅斯副總理奧爾加?戈洛杰茨的話稱，當局沒有關閉麥當勞在俄430家分店的“總計劃”。

????那么俄羅斯對麥當勞到底有多重要呢？停業(yè)并不會對公司造成大的沖擊，畢竟麥當勞在119個國家擁有13,600家分店。并且俄羅斯市場對其總營收的貢獻還不到5%。

????但是，俄羅斯一直是麥當勞在歐洲為數(shù)不多的銷量強勁的市場之一，當?shù)剡B鎖店占其歐洲總銷售額的40%。比例如此之大，因此麥當勞過去5年幾乎將俄羅斯的門店數(shù)量翻了一番。

????在2002至2013的年報中，麥當勞每年都把俄羅斯單獨列為增長強勁的市場，包括過去5年里，俄羅斯分公司每年都能榮獲歐洲業(yè)績增長的“主要貢獻者”稱號，這一切都得益于開設新店和原有分店的銷售激增。事實上，在普京任職期間，麥當勞在俄羅斯市場的業(yè)績只有一次沒有呈現(xiàn)強勁增長，這唯一的一次就是在今年早些時候。當時它曾警告投資者，稱俄羅斯和烏克蘭沖突可能使銷售受到影響。（確實如此，該公司在俄羅斯的銷售在第一和第二季度都呈現(xiàn)增長，但是在7月份出現(xiàn)了下滑。）

????“但這些不足影響公司的總體方針，”在提到對麥當勞業(yè)績潛在的影響時，分析師R.J.霍托維向《財富》（Fortune）介紹。“與此同時，這仍是一個增長的市場，一個在各種風險中不斷前進的市場。”

????讓麥當勞能好受一點的因素之一是，俄羅斯只是其兩大特殊市場中的一個，另一個是英國，其特殊之處在于大部分餐廳是麥當勞公司自己經(jīng)營的自營店，而不是特許經(jīng)營的加盟店。霍托維表示，這些自營門店的盈利不及加盟店，而麥當勞從加盟店那里僅收取利潤分成。

????俄羅斯星期三關閉的餐廳中包括普希金廣場（Pushkinskaya Square）的麥當勞餐廳，這也是俄羅斯最早、業(yè)務最繁忙的麥當勞餐廳。24年前，這家餐廳的開業(yè)一度成為冷戰(zhàn)結束的標志性事件。

????麥當勞在一份聲明中表示，“我們正在密切尋找指控的實際所指，并采取必要的措施盡快讓餐廳對顧客重新開放。”聲明中對于牽涉的政治背景只字未提。聲明還寫道：“我們將繼續(xù)安置好員工，采取一切可能的措施，繼續(xù)本公司在俄羅斯的成功經(jīng)營。”（7月份，俄羅斯的消費者安全監(jiān)管機構起訴麥當勞，禁止其部分最受歡迎的漢堡和奶昔出售，理由是麥當勞違反食品安全法規(guī)，營養(yǎng)成分標簽有誤。麥當勞方面則表示，當局已經(jīng)批準其營養(yǎng)成分信息，“若干微生物指標”已經(jīng)迅速糾正。）

????在這些紛擾塵埃落定之前，作為美國商業(yè)象征的麥當勞將發(fā)現(xiàn)自己不可避免地攪入俄羅斯與西方的沖突之中。不過，如果這些餐廳最終重開，生意將迅速反彈。

????正如霍托維總結的，“大品牌總是有辦法恢復元氣的”。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????McDonald’s just can’t catch a break these days.

????On top of a food safety scandal that slammed its China sales last month, and chronic sales softness in the U.S., the world’s largest restaurant chain is facing a new threat to its business: a possible mass shutdown of its restaurants in Russia in what appears to be a retaliatory move following U.S. sanctions on the country for its role in stoking the Ukrainian conflict.

????Russia’s consumer protection bureau Rospotrebnadzor said Wednesday it would temporarily close four restaurants in prime locations in Moscow after finding violations of sanitary regulations, and several regional authorities followed suit on Thursday, telling local media they would launch mass inspections within days. The news agency Interfax, however, quoted deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets as saying there was no “total plan” to shut down the company’s 430 outlets in Russia.

????So how important is Russia to McDonald’s? A shutdown would not have a major impact on the company, which operates 13,600 stores in 119 countries, after all. And the Russian market contributes less than 5% of total operating profit.

????But Russia has been one of McDonald’s few reliably strong markets in Europe, where the hamburger chain generates 40% of its overall sales. So much so that McDonald’s has roughly doubled its Russian store count in the last 5 years.

????In each annual report between 2002 and 2013, McDonald’s singled out Russia as a strong market, including a fewshootouts in each of the last five years as a “major contributor” to its European results growth, thanks to expansion and soaring sales at existing restaurants. In fact, the only time during the Putin era McDonald’s identified its performance in Russia could be anything but strong was earlier this year when it warned investors that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could hurt sales. (Sure enough, sales declined in Russia in July, after rising in first and second quarters.)

????“It’s not enough to move the needle,” R.J. Hottovy told Fortune, in reference to a potential hit to McDonald’s results. “At the same time it’s a growth market and comes on the heels on a bunch of scary things.”

????One of the factors mitigating the pain to McDonald’s is that Russia is only one of two markets, including Britain, where most restaurants are company-operated rather than franchised. Such locations are less profitable than franchised ones, where McDonald’s simply gets a cut of the sales, Hottovy said.

????The Russian restaurants closed Wednesday include the one just off Pushkinskaya Square, the company’s oldest and busiest branch in the country, whose opening 24 years ago was a symbolic landmark event at the end of the Cold War.

????McDonald’s said in a statement that “we are looking at the substance of the allegations to work out what measures are needed to open our restaurants to visitors as soon as possible.” It made no reference to the political backdrop and said “we will continue to take care of our employees and do everything possible to continue our company’s successful work in Russia.” (In July, Russia’s consumer-safety regulator sued McDonald’s, aiming to ban some of its popular burgers and milkshakes, pointing to alleged food-safety violations and mislabeled nutrition information. McDonald’s said authorities had approved the nutritional information and that “certain indicators of micro-organisms” had been corrected immediately.)

????Until the contretemps is resolved, McDonald’s, a symbol of American business, finds itself in the crossfire of Russia’s conflict with the West. But business should recover quickly if and when those restaurants ultimately re-open.

????“The brand always finds a way to bounce back,” Hottovy said.