????如果這個(gè)目標(biāo)真的能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)，屆時(shí)特斯拉的規(guī)模將超過(guò)林肯（Lincoln）和保時(shí)捷（Porsche）等豪車(chē)品牌的美國(guó)分支。這兩個(gè)老字號(hào)豪車(chē)品牌都有更多樣化的產(chǎn)品陣容、長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)、成熟的營(yíng)銷和廣告策略。特斯拉如果真的能賣(mài)出預(yù)期的數(shù)字，那么其銷量的半數(shù)將來(lái)自現(xiàn)有的Model S轎車(chē)，其它一半則來(lái)自明年年初才會(huì)量產(chǎn)的Model X七座跨界車(chē)。

????這里并不是要給特斯拉澆一瓢冷水。它已經(jīng)證明自己具有生產(chǎn)一款復(fù)雜、先進(jìn)且外觀誘人的產(chǎn)品的能力。但無(wú)論是特斯拉自己的內(nèi)部預(yù)測(cè)，還是投資人對(duì)其股票的追捧，都基于同樣一個(gè)預(yù)期，那就是特斯拉未來(lái)依然會(huì)延續(xù)最近的大熱勢(shì)頭。這是一種危險(xiǎn)的假設(shè)，原因如下：

????? 特斯拉是一款富人車(chē)。在均價(jià)85,000美元的水平線上，可以說(shuō)買(mǎi)特斯拉的人沒(méi)人會(huì)在意汽油錢(qián)。特斯拉在續(xù)航里程上的短板，也說(shuō)明了它絕對(duì)不會(huì)是車(chē)主家里的唯一一輛車(chē)。如果這些人的新鮮勁兒過(guò)去了，特斯拉的訂單儲(chǔ)備就會(huì)縮水，也會(huì)像其它廠商一樣需要為銷量打拼。

????? 特斯拉的規(guī)模越大，運(yùn)營(yíng)的復(fù)雜性就越強(qiáng)。由于它直接銷售給終端顧客，免去了特許經(jīng)銷商的環(huán)節(jié)，它必須開(kāi)發(fā)一個(gè)自己的服務(wù)中心網(wǎng)絡(luò)來(lái)進(jìn)行售后維修保養(yǎng)。另外它獨(dú)特慷慨的保修條款規(guī)定，車(chē)主在使用三年后，可以以原價(jià)50%的價(jià)格將車(chē)賣(mài)還給特斯拉。這種做法可能會(huì)催生一個(gè)二手特斯拉的專門(mén)渠道。“尋找阿爾法”上的一位博主寫(xiě)道：“等到車(chē)主覺(jué)得他們的車(chē)不像一年前那么誘人和罕見(jiàn)，特斯拉可能會(huì)吃進(jìn)大量有三年車(chē)齡的二手車(chē)。在我看來(lái)，這是個(gè)潛在的麻煩。”

????? 電池電力可能最終被證明是一種過(guò)渡性技術(shù)。最近電池成本的降低速度已經(jīng)放慢了，特斯拉曾經(jīng)承諾要在2017年生產(chǎn)出價(jià)格在35,000美元左右的Model 3。要實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)，特斯拉的電池成本需要下降30%。相比之下，豐田（Toyota）最近的舉動(dòng)非常出人意料。它與特斯拉簽訂的電池供應(yīng)協(xié)議即將期滿，但豐田并未續(xù)約，而是準(zhǔn)備加倍投入研發(fā)氫燃料電池。燃料電池的成本下降速度要快于普通電池。而且燃料電池的擁躉們認(rèn)為，車(chē)主肯定會(huì)更喜歡充電速度相對(duì)更快的燃料電池，而不是要為充電等上好幾個(gè)小時(shí)。

????? 外部事件的影響。《消費(fèi)者報(bào)告》（Consumer Reports）雜志曾經(jīng)對(duì)Model S大加吹捧，但最近該雜志也報(bào)道了它的一些常見(jiàn)故障，包括門(mén)把手失效，中控觸屏白屏，導(dǎo)致車(chē)內(nèi)大部分功能不能使用等等。汽車(chē)網(wǎng)站Edmunds.com也找了Model S的麻煩。更多此類報(bào)告無(wú)疑會(huì)影響特斯拉到目前為止非常正面的聲譽(yù)。

????不過(guò)目前來(lái)看，這些潛在的烏云似乎都沒(méi)有遮住特斯拉在帕洛阿爾托總部的陽(yáng)光。特斯拉仍然堅(jiān)持在2020年之前年產(chǎn)50萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)的中期目標(biāo)。這在很大程度上要取決于Model X是否有能力維持當(dāng)前的勢(shì)頭。特斯拉已經(jīng)大大提高了資本和研發(fā)支出，以確保Model X的順利發(fā)布（雖然已經(jīng)推遲了一年）。

????摩根士丹利的分析師喬納斯認(rèn)為，Model X的銷量將會(huì)更加可觀，但不是由于它的燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性，而是它升級(jí)后的信息娛樂(lè)系統(tǒng)，以及獨(dú)特的“鷹翼”式后車(chē)門(mén)。他還表示，如果Model X沒(méi)有贏得所有的年度車(chē)型大獎(jiǎng)，他會(huì)非常失望。他并不是唯一一個(gè)這樣想的人。埃隆?穆斯克和其他很多祈禱特斯拉繼續(xù)保持當(dāng)前勢(shì)頭的人當(dāng)然也會(huì)這樣想。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Selling that many cars would make Tesla larger than the U.S. arms of luxury makers like Lincoln and Porsche, both of which have more diverse product portfolios, long-established dealer networks, and refined strategies for marketing and advertising. Half the sales would come from the aging Model S sedan and the other half the new Model X seven-seat crossover that goes into production early next year.

????This is not to take anything away from Tesla, which has demonstrated that it can create and manufacture a complex and sophisticated product with demonstrated customer appeal. But its own internal forecasts, as well as the swelling of its share price, are based on the expectation that the future will unspool in an orderly fashion identical to the recent past. That’s a dangerous assumption to make – for several reasons:

????? Tesla is a car for rich people. With an average price of $85,000, it is safe to say that few Tesla owners are buying one to save money on fuel, and the car’s range limitations mean that a Tesla is never the only car in an owner’s garage. At some point, these same people will stop viewing Tesla as the flavor of the month, its order backlog will shrink, and Tesla will have to scrap for sales like other manufacturers.

????? The bigger Tesla gets, the more complex its operations become. Since it sells directly to customers and eschews franchised dealers, it will have to develop a network of service centers to handle repairs on the cars it sells. Its unusually generous warranty, which obligates it to buy back used cars for 50% of their original base price after three years, could create a second channel of used Teslas. “Tesla will be eating a lot of three-year-old cars that aren’t as sexy or rare as they were a year ago,” wrote one Seeking Alpha blogger. ‘To me, it sounds like a potential mess.”

????? Battery power may turn out to be a transition technology. Cost reductions have been slow in coming, and Tesla needs a 30% improvement in order to build the $35,000 Model 3 it has promised for 2017. Toyota’s recent move was eye-opening. It is allowing a battery-supply deal with Tesla to expire and instead will redouble its work on hydrogen fuel cells. The cost of fuel cells is coming down faster than batteries and fuel cell proponents believe drivers will prefer a relatively rapid refuel with hydrogen to waiting hours to recharge their batteries.

????? Outside events can intrude.Consumer Reports, which raved about the Model S, reported a few “quirks” recently that included door handles that failed to activate and a center touch screen that went blank, blocking access to most of the car’s functions. Edmunds.com has had trouble with its Model S too. More reports like that will dent Tesla’s heretofore shining reputation.

????? None of these potential clouds appear to darken the sunny view from Tesla headquarters in Palo Alto. Tesla is sticking with its middle term goal of building 500,000 cars a year by 2020. Much will depend on the ability of the Model X to maintain the current momentum – and mystique. Tesla has steeply ramped up spending on capital expenditures and R&D to make sure the launch, already a year behind schedule, is a success.

????Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the Model X will sell more based on features like its upgraded infotainment system unique “falcon-wing” back-seat doors than fuel economy and he will be disappointed if the Model X doesn’t win every major car of the year award. He isn’t alone. So will Elon Musk and a whole lot of Tesla investors who pray that the momentum behind this amazing stock keeps building.