????在越南戰爭期間，法國航空公司每天都有從巴黎直飛河內的航班。這一點北越知道，南越知道，美國也知道。但該航班從未遭遇攻擊。

????但馬航MH17航班被導彈擊落這起事故將帶來重大改變，在風險業務方面，此類風險因此次事故而大幅提高。承保戰爭險的保險公司從現在開始將更改其免責條款，將更廣泛的地區定義為戰區。這樣做也是提請航空公司注意（無論有沒有政府的命令），飛機飛越該區域即違反該保單的條款。而任何一家航空公司都不會以失去保險覆蓋為代價而以身試險。

????同時，在墜機現場取回的黑匣子（駕駛艙語音記錄器和飛行數據記錄器）可能只具有象征意義，在確定墜毀細節方面并不會起到真正的建設性作用。目前，假設黑匣子完好無損，沒有被動過手腳且交由適當的空難調查實驗室處理，則黑匣子能提供的也只有飛機被導彈擊中以及失去電力的確切時間。

????對調查人員而言，機身現場調查是至關重要的。他們要檢查金屬是否有確切的波紋痕跡（波紋痕跡意味著化學品爆炸，如塞姆汀炸藥，當年調查人員在泛美103航班的機身內部很快就發現了這種炸藥）以及金屬機身的形狀。向外扭曲說明是飛機內部爆炸，而向內扭曲并帶有燃燒痕跡則表明是飛機外部爆炸。在未來的96小時內，如果調查人員能夠自由進入事發地點，那么他們應該能夠確立一個時間表，并獲得相關的法醫線索，而后者可能會給出他們所需的化學品成分，來追溯導彈的制造商，甚至還能查出終端用戶。

????待這一過程結束之后，我們將回到之前提到的監管鏈問題，即證明武器的提供方和導彈發射方是誰。即使這個問題在短期內水落石出，也并不意味著問題很快就能在法庭上解決。在未來四天內，我們將確切得知關于MH17航班被擊落的時間、方式和地點。甚至可能很快就會知道元兇是誰。但是，法庭上責任方的判定，以及隨后給予遇難者家屬應有的賠償可能需要耗費數年的時間。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Lina

????During the Vietnam War, Air France had a daily nonstop from Paris to Hanoi. The North Vietnamese knew it. The South Vietnamese knew it. And the U.S. knew it. And that plane was never attacked.

????But the missile attack that downed MH 17 was a game-changer, and in the risk business, the stakes were just raised stratospherically. The insurance companies that write war-risk policies are now beginning to change their exclusions to add a much wider tract of territory that they now would characterize as a war zone. In doing so, they are putting airlines on notice that—with or without government orders—an airline flying over that zone would be violating the terms of that particular policy. And no airline is going to do risk voiding its coverage.

????Meanwhile, at the scene of the crash, the retrieval of the black boxes (the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder) may only have symbolic significance and may have no real constructive role in determining the details of the crash. At this point, assuming they are found intact, not compromised and taken to the appropriate air crash investigation lab, about the only thing the black boxes can contribute is an exact time when the plane was hit with the missile and the aircraft lost electric power.

????What’s crucial to the investigators is getting their hands on the fuselage. They need to inspect the metal for definitive signs of striation marks (which would be consistent with chemical explosive, like Semtex, which they quickly discovered on the inside of the fuselage of Pan Am 103) and for the shape of the metal. Twisted out is consistent with an explosion from inside the plane. Twisted in– with burn marks – is consistent with an explosion from outside the plane. Over the next 96 hours, assuming the investigators have unfettered access to the site, they should be able to construct a timeline, and a forensic trail that could give them the chemical DNA they need to lead them back to the missile manufacturer and perhaps even the end-user.

????Then there is the aforementioned chain of custody issue—meaning the issue of proving who supplied the weapon and who fired it. Even if we gain clarity on that in the near term, it does not mean it will be settled in a court of law anytime soon. In the next four days, we should be able to learn conclusively the when, the how and the where of the downing of MH17. We might even soon learn the who. But proving who’s responsible in a court of law, and giving families their due, could easily take years.