????據(jù)說(shuō)，在1964年，當(dāng)時(shí)還在飛兆半導(dǎo)體公司（Fairchild Semiconductor）工作的戈登?摩爾博士正在為《電子學(xué)》（Electronics）雜志準(zhǔn)備一篇有關(guān)半導(dǎo)體存儲(chǔ)芯片演化史的論文。他決定把半導(dǎo)體存儲(chǔ)芯片的容量和它們的生產(chǎn)年份用坐標(biāo)圖標(biāo)釋出來(lái)。當(dāng)時(shí)這張圖上只有五六個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)，因?yàn)榘雽?dǎo)體芯片剛剛誕生五年，每張芯片上只有幾百個(gè)晶體管。

????將所有的數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)連起來(lái)之后，摩爾發(fā)現(xiàn)，這條曲線一開(kāi)始的走向比較平緩，然后迅速大幅上揚(yáng)。可惜那條曲線最后跑出了草紙的頂部。于是摩爾又畫(huà)了一張對(duì)數(shù)坐標(biāo)圖，這次他驚奇地發(fā)現(xiàn)，將一條坐標(biāo)用10的N次方來(lái)計(jì)數(shù)之后，存儲(chǔ)芯片的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)呈一條幾乎水平的直線。作為硅谷歷史上最聰明的人之一【也是未來(lái)英特爾公司（Intel）的共同創(chuàng)始人】，摩爾不僅明白了這張圖說(shuō)明了什么，更重要的是明白了它意味著什么。

????首先，這張座標(biāo)圖說(shuō)明，半導(dǎo)體存儲(chǔ)芯片的發(fā)展速度，是人類(lèi)在任何產(chǎn)品上都不曾見(jiàn)過(guò)的——如果這種速度能夠繼續(xù)保持下去，很快就會(huì)發(fā)生重大的代際跨越。后來(lái)這根趨勢(shì)圖被總結(jié)為“摩爾定律”，即半導(dǎo)體存儲(chǔ)芯片的性能，每一兩年就會(huì)翻一番。

????但是摩爾定律背后的重大意義在于，我們首次有了一張通向未來(lái)的路線圖。你可以根據(jù)摩爾定律預(yù)測(cè)幾十年后的情形，而且直到現(xiàn)在，摩爾定律與現(xiàn)實(shí)輝映得都一直十分準(zhǔn)確。這意味著你可以對(duì)未來(lái)的某個(gè)日子進(jìn)行規(guī)劃和設(shè)計(jì)。可以說(shuō)，它是讓你在未來(lái)獲得成功優(yōu)勢(shì)的一把神奇鑰匙。

????摩爾定律很快從存儲(chǔ)芯片擴(kuò)展到了邏輯芯片，然后又滲透到了半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的其它領(lǐng)域，而且很快使芯片行業(yè)成為增長(zhǎng)最快的一個(gè)行業(yè)，同時(shí)也是最具價(jià)值的一個(gè)行業(yè)。

????但是當(dāng)時(shí)，包括摩爾本人在內(nèi)，所有人都沒(méi)有預(yù)測(cè)到，到了八十年代和九十年代之交的時(shí)候，全球的芯片數(shù)量數(shù)以百億計(jì)，摩爾定律已經(jīng)具有了沖出電子行業(yè)，進(jìn)入國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其它領(lǐng)域的能力。從汽車(chē)到基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)，從基因研究到電話業(yè)務(wù)——各大企業(yè)、實(shí)驗(yàn)室和政府機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)現(xiàn)，只要他們有能力與摩爾定律掛鉤，就能實(shí)現(xiàn)指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)。其中的一個(gè)結(jié)果就是我們這個(gè)時(shí)代的重大革新技術(shù)——互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。

????在撰寫(xiě)關(guān)于英特爾公司歷史的新書(shū)《英特爾三杰》（The Intel Trinity）的過(guò)程中，我認(rèn)識(shí)到我們犯了一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤，那就是過(guò)于相信摩爾劃出的這條平滑曲線。這個(gè)錯(cuò)誤始于戈登?摩爾更換了坐標(biāo)系的那一瞬間。那是因?yàn)樵趯?duì)數(shù)坐標(biāo)系上看起來(lái)甚為平緩的直線背后，還隱藏著一條大起大落的拋物線。而過(guò)去幾十年的大部分時(shí)間里，我們都忘掉了這個(gè)事實(shí)。

????那么，那條陡峭的曲線究竟隱藏著什么？像所有拋物線一樣，它一開(kāi)始也顯示出帶有迷惑性的平緩趨勢(shì)。在頭40年里，摩爾定律還處于比較溫和的水平。這條相對(duì)平緩的曲線在微型計(jì)算機(jī)、微處理器、數(shù)碼計(jì)算器、電腦游戲、個(gè)人電腦、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、機(jī)器人、無(wú)線電話、智能手機(jī)和電子商務(wù)等領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展過(guò)程中都能看得到。換句話說(shuō)，光是這條曲線最平緩的部分，就已經(jīng)將我們居住的世界完全改造了。

????As the legend goes, in 1964 Dr. Gordon Moore, then at Fairchild Semiconductor, was preparing a paper for Electronics magazine on the evolution of semiconductor memory chips. He decided to plot the capacity of those chips, versus their year of introduction, on some graph paper. There were only a half-dozen or so data points, as memory chips at that point were less than five years old and only contained a few hundred transistors each.

????Connecting the dots, Moore noticed a familiar parabolic curve – shallow at the beginning and then quickly turning upwards. Unfortunately, that curve also quickly went straight off the top of the page. So Moore switched to logarithmic paper – that is, with one side in powers of ten — and, stunningly, the memory chips tracked along a straight, nearly horizontal line. Moore, one of the most brilliant individuals in Silicon Valley history (and future Intel INTC -2.74% co-founder), not only knew what this said, but more important, what it meant.

????What it said was that semiconductor memory was progressing at a pace never before seen in any product in human history – and if that pace could be maintained the generational leaps would soon be gigantic. This trajectory – at first defined as the doubling of the performance of semiconductor chips every couple years – became known as Moore’s Law.

????But what Moore’s Law meant was that for the first time, perhaps in any industry anywhere, there was now a map into the future. You could track that line decades out into the future – and know exactly what memory chips would be like on any date. And that meant you could plan for that date, and you could build for it. It was a magic key to competitive success.

????Moore’s Law quickly spread from memory to logic chips and then to the rest of the semiconductor industry – and quickly made the chip business the fastest growing industry. And soon, the most valuable.

????What no one, not even Moore himself, saw coming was that, by the 1980s and 1990s, with tens of billions of chips out in the world, Moore’s Law would break out of electronics and into the rest of the economy. From automotive to infrastructure to genetic research to telephony – companies, laboratories and government agencies discovered that if they could find any way to hook up to Moore’s Law they too could experience exponential growth. One result was the great transformational technology of our time, the Internet.

????In writing my new book on the history of Intel Corporation, The Intel Trinity, I became convinced that we have made a serious mistake being so comfortable with that shallow line. And that mistake begins with Gordon Moore’s change of graph paper. That’s because behind the gently sloping straight line there still lies that dizzying parabolic curve. It is this reality that has been largely forgotten over the last few decades.

????What lies in that steep arc? Like all parabolic curve, it begins deceptively flat: for the first 40 years, Moore’s Law is a gentle grade. Yet under that comparatively flat curve can be found the minicomputer, the microprocessor, the digital calculator, computer gaming, the personal computer, the Internet, robotics, wireless telephony, the smart phone and electronic commerce – in other words, our world has been utterly transformed by just the shallowest section of this curve.