????菲亞特-克萊斯勒（Fiat Chrysler）和大眾汽車（Volkswagen）發表簡短聲明否認正在進行并購協商，從而掩蓋了推動這兩家汽車公司向彼此靠攏的力量。那么這股力量能否強大到戰勝對合并的阻力呢？

????大眾汽車在美國市場遭遇了困境，而收購菲亞特-克萊斯勒可以迅速將大眾在美國汽車市場的占有率從現在的4%提高到15%。菲亞特-克萊斯勒擁有奢侈品牌阿爾法?羅密歐（Alfa Romeo），大眾曾經公開承認過對菲亞特-克萊斯勒的興趣。此外，大眾還能獲得公羊（Ram）皮卡和Jeep品牌，從而幫助這家德國公司進一步實現2018年主導全球市場的目標。

????對菲亞特-克萊斯勒及其所有者阿涅利家族而言，將公司賣給大眾的好處簡單明了：能得到一大筆錢。根據目前的資本總額來看，公司的股票市值大約是120億美元。至少一名以上分析師推斷表示，大眾若要完整收購菲亞特可能要花費400億美元，包括承擔菲亞特的債務。

????伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）的分析師在上周二發布的一份報告中表示：“我們相信這樁交易存在著一定程度的行業邏輯——也許更重要的是，存在著許多情感邏輯。”

????德國雜志《經理人》（Manager Magazin）本周表示，大眾汽車的董事長費迪南德?皮耶希以及公司的控股股東保時捷家族已經與菲亞特的控股股東阿涅利家族進行了收購討論。所有相關人員都否認了這一新聞——盡管業內在進行大型并購的初期，有時會歪曲真相。

????這些年來，歐洲的銀行家已經得出了結論：阿涅利家族已經準備從暢銷的汽車業務中脫身，同時保留法拉利（Ferrari）及其F-1賽車隊。菲亞特汽車公司通過資產重組與菲亞特的其他工業公司分離，這為其于2009年并購破產的克萊斯勒公司創造了條件。

????菲亞特-克萊斯勒盡管眼下還沒有財務危機，卻也沒有過多的盈利。為了實現其雄心勃勃的增長計劃，公司必須籌集物質資本。在今年的晚些時候，新合并的菲亞特-克萊斯勒汽車股份有限公司（Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.）可能會進行首次公開募股。我們可以通過這次發行股票，看出資本市場究竟是否看好公司的發展前景。

????大眾收購菲亞特-克萊斯勒能夠獲得種種好處是毫無疑問的，但這是否真的是一個好主意還得打個問號。根據伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）的計算，收購菲亞特-克萊斯勒將會在短期內降低大眾汽車的每股股東收益。這也許不會讓皮耶希感到有多困擾，雖然他現年77歲，卻依然積極主動。不過其他股東可能不會像他這么著急。

????菲亞特-克萊斯勒中的克萊斯勒公司曾經經歷過這樣的事情。另一家德國公司戴姆勒集團（Daimler AG）于1998年收購了克萊斯勒。在無法實現其戰略目標的情況下，戴姆勒于2007年將其賣給了瑟伯羅斯資本管理公司（Cerberus Capital Management）。考慮到大眾的股東已經看過了這場鬧劇，他們不想收購菲亞特-克萊斯勒也是情有可原。

????在搞清楚皮耶希是否決定收購，又將何時進行收購前，大眾在提高自己在北美的存在感方面，還有很多要做。菲亞特-克萊斯勒在今年晚些時候的首次公開募股也許將暗示著并購事件的走向。（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????Curt denials by Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen that they’re talking merger belie the forces pushing the two automotive companies toward each other. Are the forces strong enough to overcome some resistance to a combination?

????VW is stumbling in the U.S.; acquiring Fiat Chrysler would immediately boost VW’s share of the U.S. vehicle market to 15 percent from the current 4 percent. Fiat Chrysler owns the Alfa Romeo luxury brand, which VW has openly admitted coveting. VW would gain the Ram pickup brand and Jeep, helping the German company towards its goal of world domination by 2018.

????For Fiat Chrysler and its controlling Agnelli family, the advantage of selling to VW would be simple and straightforward: a big pile of money. The stock market values the company, according to its current capitalization, at about $12 billion. At least one analyst theorizes a buyout might cost VW $40 billion, including the assumption of Fiat’s debt.

????“We believe a deal has a degree of industrial logic—and, perhaps more importantly, a load of emotional logic,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a report published on Thursday.

????Manager Magazin, a German publication, said this week that Ferdinand Piech, the chairman of Volkswagen and a member of the company’s controlling shareholder, the Porsche family, had been in takeover discussion with Agnelli family, the controlling shareholders of Fiat. All involved denied the story’s accuracy—though in the early stages of big industrial mergers, the truth can sometimes be bent or stretched.

????For some years, European bankers have concluded that the Agnellis are poised to exit the mass-market automobile business eventually, while hanging on to Ferrari and its F-1 racing team. A recapitalization that separated the Fiat auto company from other Fiat industrial properties set the stage for the merger with bankrupt Chrysler in 2009.

????Fiat Chrysler, while not in immediate financial distress, isn’t particularly profitable and must raise substantial capital to fulfill its own ambitious growth plans. Later this year, a public share offering of newly-consolidated Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. is expected to take place. That share offering could be a signal of support—or lack of it—from capital markets for FCA’s growth prospects.

????Beyond the question of what advantage VW sees in owning FCA is one of whether it’s actually a good idea. According to Bernstein Research’s calculations, the cost of acquiring FCA would be dilutive to VW shareholders in the short term. That may not bother Piech so much, who at age 77 appears active if not spry. But he may be more eager than his fellow shareholders.

????The Chrysler part of FCA has been down this road before with another German acquirer, Daimler AG. Daimler bought Chrysler in 1998 and then sold it to Cerberus Capital Management in 2007 after failing to realize its strategic vision. VW shareholders could be forgiven for deciding that they have seen this movie before want no part of FCA.

????Until it becomes clear whether Piech is determined to proceed, and how quickly, VW still has plenty of work to do improving the brand’s North American presence. The FCA stock offering later this year could be a hint of things to come.