中國(guó)6月份銀行新增貸款放量增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)散經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩愁云
????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩現(xiàn)在看起來似乎已經(jīng)成了一件很遙遠(yuǎn)的往事,因?yàn)榇饲坝谥芏l(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)6月份銀行貸款出現(xiàn)了大幅增長(zhǎng)。 ????中國(guó)各家銀行(它們的貸款很大程度上受政府政策影響)6月份新發(fā)放了1.08萬億元(1,740億美元)貸款,較5月份增長(zhǎng)了20%還多,大大高于9,550億元的普遍預(yù)期。此外,一些更寬泛的反映經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中流動(dòng)性的指標(biāo)增速也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于預(yù)期。 ????自從上一次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)以來,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)一直是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最大的單一動(dòng)力引擎。但由于中國(guó)正在努力革新經(jīng)濟(jì)模式,把重點(diǎn)更多地放到增加國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)上來,同時(shí)對(duì)倚重投資出口行業(yè)的資源進(jìn)行重新分配,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭最近幾個(gè)月有些掙扎。今年一季度,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率創(chuàng)下了兩年來的最低水平。 ????但是,中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)堅(jiān)信,中國(guó)將實(shí)現(xiàn)今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)7.5%的目標(biāo)。而且,在中國(guó)政府網(wǎng)站周二發(fā)表的一份聲明中,他重申了這個(gè)積極樂觀的信息。 ????與此同時(shí),日本銀行(Bank of Japan)也發(fā)布了相對(duì)看漲的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。盡管日本銀行小幅縮減了(截至2015年3月)當(dāng)前財(cái)政年度的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期,從之前的1.1%下調(diào)到了1%,但這家銀行的行長(zhǎng)黑田東彥在一次新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)需要借助更多經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激才能打贏長(zhǎng)達(dá)20年的通縮抗擊戰(zhàn)的幾率現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)接近于零。 ????“我不認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者通貨膨脹率會(huì)跌到1%之下,”路透(Reuters)援引黑田東彥的話報(bào)道稱。“價(jià)格上漲趨勢(shì)正在擴(kuò)大,而且預(yù)計(jì)還會(huì)繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大,使得消費(fèi)者通貨膨脹率向2%靠近。” ????這些前景看漲的好消息共同推動(dòng)了亞洲股市周二的上漲行情。其中,日經(jīng)225指數(shù)上漲0.6%,而香港和上海的基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)分別上漲了0.5%和0.2%。 ????但歐洲傳來的好消息不多,因?yàn)榈聡?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)已經(jīng)連續(xù)7個(gè)月下降。歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心(ZEW)發(fā)布的德國(guó)7月份經(jīng)濟(jì)前景指數(shù)從5月份的29.4下降到了27.1,將將高于長(zhǎng)期平均值24.7。ZEW評(píng)估德國(guó)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的指數(shù)也從-27.7下降到了-31.5。 ????ZEW負(fù)責(zé)人克萊門斯?福斯特表示,德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)曾經(jīng)歷了生產(chǎn)和零售的雙重“短暫下滑”。但他表示,中長(zhǎng)期前景仍舊“積極樂觀”。 ????消息傳來,德國(guó)DAX指數(shù)應(yīng)聲大幅下挫,截至周二美國(guó)東部時(shí)間0600下跌了0.4%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) |
????China’s economic slowdown seemed more than ever a thing of the past, after data released Tuesday showed a sharp rise in bank lending in June. ????China’s banks–whose lending is heavily influenced by government policy, extended 1.08 trillion yuan ($174 billion) in new loans in the month, up over 20% from May and well above consensus forecast of CNY955 billion. Broader measures of liquidity in the economy also expanded far faster than expected. ????China’s economy, which has been the biggest single engine of growth for the world economy since the crisis, has faltered in recent months as the country struggles to reinvent its economic model, focusing more on raising domestic consumption and diverting resources away from investment-heavy export industries. Its growth rate in the first quarter was the slowest in two years. ????However, Premier Li Keqiang has insisted the country will meet its target of 7.5% growth this year andrepeated his upbeat message in a statement on the government’s website Tuesday. ????The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, also issued a relatively bullish update of its outlook for the economy. Although it shaved its growth forecast for the current financial year (ending in March 2015) to 1% from 1.1%, governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated at a press conference that the chance of the economy needing further stimulus to win its two-decade battle with deflation is now close to zero. ????“I don’t think there is a possibility that consumer inflation will fall below 1%,” Reuters quoted Kuroda as saying. “Price rises are broadening and are expected to continue broadening, allowing for consumer inflation to diverge towards 2%.” ????The combination of bright news drove Asian stock markets higher Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rising 0.6%, while the benchmark indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai rose by 0.5% and 0.2%. ????There was less good news out of Europe, however, as a leading indicator for the German economy fell for the seventh month in a row. The ZEW research institute’s index of expectations for the economy fell to 27.1 from 29.4 in May, barely above its long-term average of 24.7. ZEW’s index assessing current conditions in Germany also fell to -31.5 from -27.7. ????ZEW head Clemens Fuest said the economy had suffered a “dip” in both production and in retail, but said the medium-term outlook “remains positive.” ????The German DAX index fell sharply in reaction to the news and was 0.4% lower by 0600 EDT. |
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