????2014年上半年發生了很多出人意料的事，比如眾議院多數黨領袖埃里克?坎托丟掉了初選，美國足球隊歷史性地殺進了世界杯16強，新一季的《權力的游戲》（Game of Thrones）比上一季還要血腥。

????上半年也是汽車業奇峰迭起的六個月，很多結果都出人意料。今年經濟大環境總體非常樂觀，有些細分市場、品牌和汽車廠商的表現非常搶眼，但也有一些折戟沉沙的例子。盡管上半年接連遭遇了一連串召回事件，但通用汽車（General Motors）上半年的銷量卻超出了預期。相比之下，剛剛換了新帥的福特（Ford）則表現得差強人意。大多數豪華品牌的銷量都有所加速，只有仍然處于恢復期的凱迪拉克（Cadillac）不升反降。另外，斯巴魯（Subaru）交出了一份耀眼的成績單，而Mini則表現不佳。

????在查看了銷量數字、讀過了馬后炮式的分析文章之后，行業觀察人士們面前仍然擺著一些令人感到矛盾、驚訝或不解的問題。

????銷量：隨著汽車年銷量猛漲到1600萬輛以上，而且今年很有希望成為2006年以來汽車賣得最火的一年，樂觀已經成了汽車業的主流情緒?！镀囆侣劇罚ˋutomotive News ）引用一位證券分析師的話稱，2017年美國的汽車銷量有望達到1800萬輛。也有人認為，這一輪的汽車銷售周期已經走到了頂峰，恐怕要歇一歇才能爬上更高的紀錄。有些分析師還特別提到了時下越來越流行的車輛以舊換新貸款，有的能貸六七年甚至八年。

????召回：今年六月，通用汽車一共賣出了267,461臺轎車和卡車，遠遠超過了此前的預期，也暫時平息了批評人士的口舌。貌似最近通用和其他廠商發出的一連串召回聲明已經讓新車買家形成了“召回疲勞”，反而不怎么往心里去了。另外，大多數涉及召回的車型都是舊款而非新款，也許也是沒有影響到銷量的原因之一。

????混合動力車型：據IHS　Automotive公司的分析師湯姆?利比介紹，從2009年開始，市面上的混合動力車型逐年遞增，如今已經有多達47款在售，但它們的市場份額卻沒能實現同樣迅猛的增幅。今年頭六個月，混動車型的市場份額相比去年同期有所下跌，只是車型數量有所增長而已。雖然利比并沒有說，但據我本人猜測，愿意為省幾塊汽油錢而多花很多錢買混動車的消費者可能沒有此前人們預想的那么多。要想大幅促進混動車的銷量，前提是汽油價格必須大幅提高。另外，現代（Hyundai）和福特也都承認他們標榜的混動車型的油耗其實是有水分的。

????皮卡：獨立分析師沃倫?布朗尼指出，雖然2005年創下了皮卡銷量的紀錄，但今年的皮卡銷售速度遠遠地超過了2005年，不過布朗尼并不認為皮卡銷時不時還會保持三到四年的高速增長。他說：“不幸的是，我們并不接近上一次銷量高峰時的經濟狀況。當年實際GDP的增長率平均超過3%，新建房屋超過1700間，當時的月薪水平使大型皮卡的愛好者也能夠成為皮卡的買主。因此，我們要等到下一個銷售周期——可能是2017年到2018年，才能超過2005年的銷售高峰。”這對底特律三巨頭來說不是并不是一個好消息，因為皮卡業務對“三巨頭”來說都是重要的利潤來源。

????細分市場：根據《汽車新聞》的計算，今年上半年，緊湊跨界車型（如本田CR-V）的銷量上升了13%，達到110萬臺。中型家轎【如豐田凱美瑞（Toyota Camry）】的銷量下降了3%，為130萬臺。話說起來，跨界和小型SUV到底是什么時候變成了最受歡迎的車型？

????The first half of 2014 has unfolded in unpredictable ways: House majority leader Eric Cantor lost a primary election, the U.S. soccer team made it to the Round of 16 in the World Cup, and “Game of Thrones” was actually bloodier than the year before.

????And so it went in auto sales: Many results were unexpected. In an overall economic environment that was surprisingly positive, some segments, brands, and manufacturers glistened while others faltered. Despite being battered by an epidemic of recalls, General Motors GM 0.53% posted better sales than expected, while Ford F 0.98% , celebrating the elevation of its new young CEO, fared worse. Sales of most luxury cars accelerated but Cadillac, a brand still in recovery, fell back. Subaru shined while Mini moped.

????After looking over the numbers and reading the post-game analyses, here are some contradictions, mysteries, and surprises that confronted industry observers from January to June.

????Sales: With sales running at an annual rate above 16 million cars and trucks and headed toward their best finish since 2006, optimism is the prevailing emotion.Automotive News quoted one securities analyst musing that sales might reach 18 million by 2017. Others believe that sales have peaked for this cycle and need to take a breather before heading higher. They pointed in particular at the growing popularity of six, seven, and even eight-year loans that could leave customers owing money when they go to trade in their old car for a new one.

????Recalls: GM sold 267,461 cars and trucks in June, far exceeding expectations and temporarily silencing its critics. It seems that the cascade of recent announcements from GM and other manufacturers has created “recall fatigue” among new car buyers. Besides, most of the recalled cars are older models that don’t show up in new car sales.

????Hybrids: The number of hybrid models has increased every year, from 2009 through this year—it now totals 47—but their market share has not kept pace, according to Tom Libby, veteran IHS Automotive analyst. Hybrid share in the first six months actually declined from last year, despite an increase in model count. Libby doesn’t say, but my guess is that the number of buyers willing to pay a premium for gas savings is shallower than expected and it will take another leap in gas prices to jump-start sales. Consumers may also be wary of hybrid mileage claims. Both Hyundai and Ford admit to publishing overly optimistic mileage claims for their hybrid models.

????Trucks: Pickup truck sales are well off the pace of their peak year in 2005, says independent analyst Warren Browne, and he doesn’t see them climbing up to their former levels for another three or four years. “Unfortunately, we are not close to past peak economic realities, when real GDP growth averaged more than 3%, housing starts were above 1.7 million units and monthly paystubs allowed large-pickup intenders to become consumers,” says Browne. “We are going to have to wait until the next sales cycle, probably 2017-2018, to surpass the 2005 sales peak.” That’s bad news for the Detroit Three, for whom pickup trucks are an outsize source of profits.

????Segments: Compact crossovers climbed another 13% to 1.1 million by Automotive News’ calculation (think Honda CR-V,) while midsize sedans shrank 3% to 1.3 million (think Toyota Camry). How long before these lines cross and baby SUVs become the most popular body style?