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歐洲央行行長的萬億歐元承諾

歐洲央行行長的萬億歐元承諾

Geoffrey Smith 2014年07月09日
上個月,歐央行公布了姍姍來遲的經濟刺激計劃,規模可能超過原先的預期。但這首先需要歐元區銀行確保自己的健康狀況,同時還得市場存在貸款需求,銀行系統才能從中獲利。

????歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧?德拉吉上周四表示,他的新刺激措施可能讓歐央行釋放最多1萬億歐元貸款,從而確保歐元區銀行在下一年可以自由地向正在擺脫衰退的經濟放貸。

????德拉吉在每個月定期召開的新聞發布會上解釋了歐央行所說的“定向長期再融資操作”(TLTRO)的技術細節。他表示,今年晚些時候的兩次TLTRO可以為銀行初步提供4000億歐元資金,而這項措施的最終規模可能遠遠超過這個數字。

????多年來,處于歷史低點的利率一直未能重新激活商業貸款,歐洲央行因此轉向了TLTRO。正如來自布魯塞爾智囊機構Bruegel的西爾維亞?梅爾所說,2011年11月到2014年,歐元區企業貸款減少了4260億歐元。原因是,在陷入困境的歐元區外圍國家,銀行正在設法消除房地產泡沫產生的遺留問題,中小企業信貸越來越匱乏。

????德拉吉的TLTRO將使銀行能在2018年之前一直以超低融資成本向企業和消費者放貸(但不是以抵押貸款的形式),從而讓它們更容易從這些貸款中獲利。

????但這一點取決于兩個假設。首先,銀行本身能通過歐洲央行的資產質量審核與壓力測試,不至于因此而關門大吉;其次,明年仍然有企業可以發放貸款。

????2010-2012年,幾乎崩潰的歐元區正在艱難而緩慢地復蘇,在這里創造最終信貸需求也許并不容易。德國是歐元區表現最好的經濟體,狀況要比其他歐元區國家強得多。在這里,經濟研究機構Ifo的信貸供應指標已經連續三年處于歷史最低點;歐洲央行數據也顯示,2010年年底以來,德國企業貸款僅增長了1.6%,消費貸款增幅也不到4%。

????歐洲央行在本月早些時候的利率政策會議上決定保持基準利率不變。它上個月才將基準利率下調到新的歷史低點,本月的決定多少有些無可避免。目前。歐元區的主要再融資利率為0.15%,存款利率為負0.1%。

????德拉吉的新聞發布會還有兩點引人注意。第一,德拉吉表示從明年開始歐央行管理委員會調整利率的頻率將變成每六周一次,而不是1999年歐元問世以來一直實行的每月一次。做出這項決定的原因是,歐央行將公布更詳細的會議報告,類似于美聯儲(Federal Reserve)和英國央行(Bank of England)的會議紀要。

????不過,德拉吉說,還不清楚這些報告會不會說明管理委員會各位成員的投票情況。本來這些成員應該按照整個歐元區的總體需要來投票,但歐元區危機已經讓這個概念瀕臨崩潰,因為它導致需要援助的國家和需要為援助提供資金的國家在態度上出現了兩極分化。

????其次,和美聯儲主席珍妮特?耶倫一樣,德拉吉也對國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的說法予以了反擊。國際清算銀行認為全球各主要央行的貨幣政策過于寬松,正在金融市場產生不穩定的泡沫。

????President Mario Draghi said Thursday his new stimulus measures could release up to €1 trillion in lending by the European Central Bank, ensuring that eurozone banks can lend liberally to the economy next year as it drags itself out of recession.

????Unveiling the technical details of what the ECB is calling “Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations,” or TLTROs, Draghi told his regular monthly press conference that the eventual scope of the program could far exceed the €400 billion that banks will be able to borrow initially from two operations later this year.

????The ECB has turned to TLTROs to revive lending to businesses after years of rock-bottom interest rates failed to do the trick. As Silvia Merler of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel points out, corporate lending in the eurozone fell by €426 billion between November 2011 and 2014, as banks in the currency union’s stressed periphery worked off the hangover from a real-estate binge and increasingly starved small and medium-sized enterprises of any credit at all.

????Draghi’s TLTROs will allow bank to lock in until 2018 ultra-low funding costs for any new loans they extend to businesses and consumers (but not in the form of mortgages), making it easier for them to make profits on such loans.

????But that rests on two assumptions: first, that the banks themselves will get through the ECB’s “Asset Quality Review” and stress test without being closed down, and second, that there will still be companies to lend to next year.

????Generating final credit demand may not be easy to generate in a eurozone that is looking at a grinding, slow recovery from its near-death experience in 2010-12. In Germany, by far the strongest eurozone economy, the research institute Ifo’s barometer of access to credit has been stuck at historic lows for three years, and yet business lending is only up 1.6% from the end of 2010, while consumer loans are up less than 4%, according to ECB data.

????The ECB had earlier left its key interest rates unchanged at its monthly meeting, somewhat inevitably after cutting them a new record low only last month. The key refinancing rate stays at 0.15%, while the deposit rate stays at -0.1%.

????Draghi’s press conference was notable for two other things. First, he said, from next year, the ECB governing council will only meet to set interest rates every six weeks, rather than every month, as has been the case since the euro was launched in 1999. That is linked to a decision to start publishing more detailed “accounts” of the meetings, akin to the minutes published by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

????However, Draghi said it wasn’t yet clear whether those accounts would say which way individual council members voted. ECB members are supposed to vote according to the needs of the euro zone as a whole, but that concept has been stretched to breaking point by the euro crisis, which polarized the attitudes of countries that either needed bail-outs or had to pay for them.

????Second, Draghi found himself joining forces withFederal Reserve Board Chairman Janet Yellen to rebut accusations from the Bank for International Settlements that the monetary policy of the world’s biggest central banks is too loose, and creating destabilizing bubbles in financial markets.

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