????大家或許會認為，如果自己的國家隊擁有C?羅納爾多或韋恩?魯尼這樣的球星，在世界杯上獲得成功似乎就是輕而易舉的事情。但在下這樣的結論之前，不妨再多思考思考。

????有八支頂尖球隊入圍了一項針對最具價值國家隊的最新分析報告，但其中僅有三支隊伍將入圍今年的世界杯16強。

????這份榜單是由總部設在瑞士的國際體育研究中心（International Centre for Sports Studies，CIES）分屬機構“足球觀象臺（Football Observatory）”編纂的，它根據轉會身價對參與世界杯的100位頂尖球員進行了排行，而榜單中的球隊價值正是建立在球隊中這些個別球員的價值之上。（這份榜單針對每位球員提出了一系列的價值衡量標準；但在這里，我們只談其中最主要的衡量標準。）

????轉會身價代表了一個俱樂部想從某位球員效力的母隊手中買下這位球員時所預計的花費。正如大家所預料的那樣，22歲的內馬爾這種年輕球員的轉會身價也非常高昂，而類似阿爾揚?羅本或大衛?貝克漢姆這樣已經進入職業生涯晚期的球星，轉會身價就相對低很多。

????世界杯遭淘汰出局的高價值球隊非常多，以至于CIES足球觀象臺的主任拉法埃萊?波里都有些困惑不已。“實在太令人吃驚了。我們對某些一流球員如此糟糕的表現感到非常驚訝，”波里說。“但昨天（上周三）梅開二度的梅西和同樣已經打入四球的內馬爾還繼續留在世界杯舞臺上。所以說，也并不是所有的知名球員都表現差勁。”

????世界杯迄今為止的最大冷門都集中在衛冕冠軍西班牙隊身上，在CIES的評估中，西班牙隊以6.68億美元的價值傲居最具價值球隊之首。這支球隊中有多位球星進入了CIES的百大頂尖球員之列，其中包括迭戈?科斯塔、塞爾吉奧?布斯克斯和胡安?馬塔。但在第一場比賽中它就以大比分輸給了荷蘭隊，球隊狀態一直不理想。

????近幾屆世界杯成績一直很糟糕的英格蘭隊再次以平淡的表現讓球迷失望，在第二場比賽輸給了烏拉圭以后，它就徹底告別了本屆世界杯。韋恩?魯尼（轉會身價為5,860萬美元）領銜的這支英格蘭隊的價值為4.87億美元，球隊中有12位球星位列百大頂尖球員之列，在本屆杯賽中的最具價值球隊中，它排在第四位。但英格蘭隊的表現一如既往的糟糕。

????然后是意大利隊。四屆世界杯冠軍得主擁有馬里奧?巴洛特利這樣的明星前鋒，他以5,590萬美元的身價躋身于前25位頂尖球員之列。在上周二球隊以0比1的比分輸給烏拉圭的關鍵比賽中，巴洛特利完全沒有表現出與身價相符的狀態。烏拉圭隊位列最具價值球隊榜單的第九位——球隊一半以上的價值都來自于前鋒路易斯?蘇亞雷斯的轉會身價（但上周二比賽中發生的咬人事件也許會讓他的身價打些折扣）。

????當然，并不是所有高價值球員和球隊都表現失常。以5.4億美元高居最具價值球隊第二位的德國隊就輕松晉級淘汰賽。排在第三位的阿根廷隊擁有世界最具價值球員萊昂內爾?梅西，他一個人身價就高達3.176億美元。阿根廷隊也輕松進入了下一輪的淘汰賽。與此同時，本屆世界杯的奪冠熱門巴西也擊敗喀麥隆晉級了16強，在CIES的榜單上這支球隊的價值僅次于英格蘭，身價高達9,950萬美元的前鋒內馬爾的四粒進球讓巴西隊一路高歌猛進。

????和往年一樣，今年的世界杯也不乏黑馬球隊。

????任何體育估值方式都存在缺陷。CIES的評估方法并不能解釋哥斯達黎加或美國這樣的球隊在本屆世界杯上大放異彩的原因，這兩支隊伍都沒有哪怕一位球員能進入百大之列。這些球隊的經歷表明，成功并不是完全取決于擁有赫赫有名的大球星。在同組對手英格蘭、意大利和烏拉圭的比賽中，哥斯達黎加隊保持了全勝。而美國隊只要在周四對陣德國隊的比賽中收獲一場平局（美國最終0:1不敵德國，但依靠凈勝球優勢以小組第二身份出線——譯注），就能順利從這個小組突圍。

????“球隊的整體價值也許會大于構成部分的球員的價值總和，”英格蘭考文垂大學（Coventry University）的運動商業策略和營銷專業教授西蒙?查德威克說。“一支球隊的經濟估值并不能用來解釋更為無形的球隊氛圍和活力屬性，”查德威克在接受采訪的電子郵件中這樣寫到。

????You’d think that having the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney on your country’s roster would seem to almost guarantee World Cup success. Think again.

????Only three of the top eight teams in a new analysis of the most valuable national teams will reach this year’s Round of 16.

????The list, compiled by The Football Observatory at the Swiss-based International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES), bases team value on a team’s individual players, ranking the top 100 men participating in the World Cup by transfer value. (The list provides a range of value for each player; here, we use the high end of that range.)

????Transfer value represents what a club can expect to pay a player’s previous team to break his contract. As you’d expect, transfer value is very high for younger players like 22-year-old Neymar, while aging stars such as Arjen Robben or even David Beckham yield much lower figures.

????Even CIES Football Observatory head Raffaele Poli is somewhat baffled by the number of high-value teams already out of contention for the Cup. “That is a big surprise, indeed. We are all astonished by these bad performances by some of the best players,” says Poli. “But then you have Messi, who scored twice yesterday (Wednesday), and Neymar also four times already. So it shows that not all the known footballers did perform badly.”

????The biggest World Cup upset so far has centered on defending champion Spain, estimated by CIES to be the most valuable team at $668 million. The country boasts a host of stars in CIES’s top 100, including Diego Costa, Sergio Busquets, and Juan Mata. But it was routed by Netherlands in its opening game and never recovered.

????England, a perennial underachiever in recent World Cups, disappointed again with a tepid display that saw it crash out after falling to Uruguay in its second match. The team, led by Wayne Rooney (valued at $58.6 million), includes 12 players in the top 100 and is considered the fourth most valuable team in the tournament, at $487 million. It didn’t make a whit of difference.

????Then there is Italy. The four-time World Cup winner was led by star striker Mario Balotelli, whose transfer value of $55.9 million places him among the world’s top 25 players. Balotelli was not a factor in the team’s decisive 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Tuesday. Uruguay is ninth on the most valuable list—more than half of that amount comes from the transfer value of forward Luis Suárez (though Tuesday’s biting incident might put a damper on things).

????To be sure, not all high-value players and teams have flopped. Germany, the second most valuable team at $540 million, is on pace to reach the knockout stage. Argentina, the third most valuable team, boasts the world’s most valuable footballer Lionel Messi, who alone garners a value of $317.6 million. That team has breezed through to the next stage. Meanwhile, tournament-favorite Brazil, which sits just below England on the CIES list and has been spurred on by four goals from $99.5 million Neymar, blew out Cameroon to advance.

????Still, this year’s tournament has been about the underdogs.

????Of course, any sports valuation has its drawbacks. The CIES method doesn’t account for teams like Costa Rica or the United States, neither of which include a single player in the top 100. Those teams have shown that success isn’t all about having big names on the roster. Costa Rica won out of a group that included England, Italy, and Uruguay, and the United States has a chance to advance out of a brutal group if it gets a draw on Thursday against Germany.

????“The value of a team could be more than the sum of its parts,” says Simon Chadwick, a professor of sport business strategy and marketing at Coventry University in England. “The financial valuation of a team doesn’t account for the more intangible aspects of [team] culture and dynamic,” Chadwick wrote via e-mail.