????Facebook上所有主打威利?旺卡（電影《查理和巧克力工廠》里好萊塢影星約翰尼?德普飾演的一個(gè)角色——譯注）和電影《世界上最有趣的人》、警告世人轉(zhuǎn)基因作物會(huì)害死大家的“迷因”（meme，一些風(fēng)格獨(dú)特的圖像或影片，搭配上被社群接受的標(biāo)語或口號(hào)，在病毒式傳播下，產(chǎn)生許多變形和二次創(chuàng)作的產(chǎn)物——譯注）其實(shí)都對反轉(zhuǎn)基因運(yùn)動(dòng)幫助甚微。最近，不少激進(jìn)分子努力要讓食品公司為含有轉(zhuǎn)基因生物成分的產(chǎn)品貼上警示標(biāo)簽。不過他們成功與否都關(guān)系不大，因?yàn)槿蜃畲蟮姆N子企業(yè)孟山都公司（Monsanto）是無人可擋的業(yè)界巨頭，而正是這家公司一直在致力于推廣轉(zhuǎn)基因作物。

????看看孟山都的業(yè)績表現(xiàn)就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，這場貼標(biāo)簽運(yùn)動(dòng)其實(shí)是多么不值一提。這家公司上周三報(bào)告稱，它第三財(cái)季營收下降了近6%，但股價(jià)卻飆升超過了5%。它還宣布，今后兩年將回購100億美元的股票。這家公司尤其表示，主要受益于旗下種業(yè)和轉(zhuǎn)基因業(yè)務(wù)，它的盈利到2019年將至少增加一倍。

????這些情況其實(shí)不足為奇，可能只會(huì)讓一些“迷因”傳播者大跌眼鏡。而這個(gè)業(yè)績實(shí)際上是在全球大范圍反對轉(zhuǎn)基因作物的背景下取得的。

????不管市場風(fēng)云如何變幻，孟山都總能賺錢。如果玉米業(yè)務(wù)像今年一樣有所縮減，它就會(huì)通過擴(kuò)大大豆種子（大多數(shù)農(nóng)戶都會(huì)根據(jù)市場情況在這兩種作物中挑一種）的銷量來彌補(bǔ)這一損失。如果對手的市場份額增加，它就會(huì)常常通過把技術(shù)許可賣給杜邦公司（DuPont）這樣的主要對手（作為技術(shù)受讓方，也是它最大客戶之一）來賺錢。如果它的專利到期了，它又會(huì)把它一直在渠道中力推的新種子賣給農(nóng)戶。這家公司能最大限度地對沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：任何損失似乎都能帶來收益。

????涉及反轉(zhuǎn)基因作物運(yùn)動(dòng)和難以打開的國際市場這兩個(gè)問題時(shí)，尤能看出它的這種本事。歐洲禁止銷售種子？那就打開接受度更高的南美市場，反正那兒的增長前景要大得多。中國假裝擔(dān)心轉(zhuǎn)基因作物有害而封鎖市場？那就把更多資源轉(zhuǎn)向印度好了。

????盡管不時(shí)有頭條新聞跳出來作梗，但反對轉(zhuǎn)基因作物的運(yùn)動(dòng)實(shí)際上在美國簡直弱小得可笑。美國的主要農(nóng)作物中轉(zhuǎn)基因作物占了絕對大頭，90%以上的玉米、大豆、棉花、甜菜和油菜都是轉(zhuǎn)基因的。在這些市場中孟山都占有極大份額——約80%的美國玉米和90%以上的美國大豆都是用含有孟山都專利的種子（無論是孟山都自己、還是通過它授權(quán)經(jīng)銷商銷售）種植的。孟山都總共擁有約1700項(xiàng)專利。2013年，這家公司的銷售總額高達(dá)149億美元，其中103億美元來自種子和轉(zhuǎn)基因作物。

????轉(zhuǎn)基因作物是1996年面世的，此后種植面積很快就達(dá)到170萬公頃。據(jù)非營利組織國際農(nóng)業(yè)生物技術(shù)應(yīng)用服務(wù)組織（International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications）稱，轉(zhuǎn)基因作物的種植面積之后以平均每年1千萬公頃的速度增加，現(xiàn)在總面積已高達(dá)1億7500萬公頃，而且絲毫沒有縮減的跡象。在絕大多數(shù)這些市場上，孟山都要么遙遙領(lǐng)先，要么和其他對手勢均力敵。

????能長期取得這樣的增長絕不僅僅是靠運(yùn)氣，也不是光靠美國友好的政治氛圍就夠了（盡管這一點(diǎn)確實(shí)幫助很大）。孟山都盡管規(guī)模龐大，卻很靈活，同時(shí)還能在必要的時(shí)候敏捷應(yīng)變。比如，當(dāng)最近碰上經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退利潤下降時(shí)，這家公司很快減少了對農(nóng)達(dá)（Roundup）除草劑的投資，迅速用更便宜的一般產(chǎn)品代替了它；同時(shí)，它將業(yè)務(wù)重心更多地放在核心種子業(yè)務(wù)上，而這一業(yè)務(wù)約占公司銷售的70%。這家公司的利潤隨之大幅反彈，凈利潤率高達(dá)30%。

????同時(shí)，孟山都還深謀遠(yuǎn)慮，對數(shù)據(jù)分析技術(shù)這樣有助于提高農(nóng)場生產(chǎn)效率的產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行投資。去年10月，它斥資9.3億美元并購了Climate Corp.公司，讓自己的多種分析技術(shù)產(chǎn)品如虎添翼。目前，美國約4千萬英畝（占玉米和大豆種植總面積約20%）的農(nóng)戶使用這家公司的分析類產(chǎn)品，這個(gè)規(guī)模約為它此前預(yù)計(jì)規(guī)模的兩倍。

????All those Facebook memes featuring Willy Wonka and The Most Interesting Man in the World warning that genetically modified crops will kill us all have done little to help the anti-GMO cause. Most recently, activists have been fighting to force food companies to affix warning labels to products that contain GMOs. Whether they win or lose won’t matter much, because Monsanto, the world’s largest seed company, is an unstoppable Leviathan, and GMOs are here to stay.

????The beside-the-pointness of the labeling movement is made starkly plain by a glance at Monsanto’s financials. The company on Wednesday reported a drop in earnings of nearly 6% in the third quarter, but its stock soared by more than 5%. The company also announced it will buy back $10 billion worth of shares over the next two years, and, more to the point, declared that it expects to at least double its profits by 2019, thanks almost entirely to its seeds and genomics businesses.

????None of this is particularly surprising, except perhaps to some of the meme-spreaders. And it’s all happening despite more-serious resistance to GMOs across big swaths of the globe.

????Monsanto MON -0.43% makes money almost no matter what. If its corn business sinks, as it has this year, it makes up for some of the losses by selling more soybean seeds (many farmers tend to switch between the crops depending on market conditions). If rivals gain market share, it often makes money from the technology licenses it sells to, for example, DuPont DD -0.18% , its chief competitor (and, as a licensee, one of its biggest customers). When its patents expire, it sells farmers on the newer seed varieties it is constantly pushing through its pipeline. The company is hedged to the hilt: seemingly, any loss is also a potential gain.

????That’s especially true when it comes to anti-GMO sentiment and hard-to-crack international markets. Europe is blocking sales of seeds and traits? Open markets in a more-receptive South America, where growth prospects are much bigger anyway. China is closing off its markets out of feigned concern about GMOs? Pour more resources into India.

????In the United States, the anti-GMO movement is almost laughably impotent, despite the headlines it manages to regularly snag. GMOs are overwhelmingly dominant here among the major crops, representing more than 90% of corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar beets, and canola. And Monsanto holds huge shares of those markets — about 80% of U.S. corn and more than 90% of U.S. soybeans are grown with seeds containing Monsanto’s patented seed traits (whether sold by Monsanto itself or by licensees). In all, the company holds about 1,700 patents. In 2013, Monsanto racked up sales of $14.9 billion. Of that, $10.3 billion came from seeds and genomic traits.

????GMO crops took up about 1.7 million hectares soon after they were introduced in 1996. Acreage has grown at an average clip of 10 million hectares a year, according to the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, and are now up to 175 million hectares, with no signs of abating. And Monsanto is either leading most of these markets, or is in close competition for them.

????The upward trajectory isn’t just luck, and it isn’t just a friendly political climate in the United States (though that has surely helped). For such a big company, Monsanto is nimble, and able to turn on a dime when necessary. For instance, when profits sank during the last recession, the company quickly disinvested in its Roundup herbicide line, which was being quickly replicated by cheaper, generic versions, and shifted more focus to its core seed business, which represents about 70% of the company’s sales. Profits have bounced back in a big way, with net margins at about 30%.

????Meanwhile, the company is looking far ahead with investments in farm-productivity products such as data analytics. It purchased Climate Corp. last October for $930 million for its to boost its analytics portfolio. Farmers representing about 40 million acres in the United States (about 20% of corn and soybean acreage) are now using the company’s analytic products, about double what the company had earlier forecast.