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澳大利亞“水期貨”揭秘

澳大利亞“水期貨”揭秘

Rob Curran 2014年07月01日
澳大利亞推出的一項新的期貨產品預示著水資源或將成為像原油一樣的投機商品,而借助市場的力量,人類或許也有望改善水資源的配置,提高它的利用效率,從而達到保護水資源的目的。

????水交易對魯尼來說可謂是“家傳生意”。他父親克雷格?魯尼就是一位水經紀人。魯尼在Waterfind的辦公室里保存著一張1973年的文件,上面記錄了他父親早年安排的一筆生意。當時克雷格?魯尼為了安排運水事宜,不得不挨家挨戶敲農民和土地所有者的門。魯尼說:“當時什么東西都是手寫的——比如手寫的合同,另外還要走非常復雜的政府手續。”

????等到老魯尼的兒子接過家族生意后,他意識到,古老的水經紀生意可以憑借現代的電子股票和期貨市場煥發青春。這也是他為什么創辦Waterfind的原因。現在,一筆在他父親的時代需要4個月才能完成的經紀業務,在Waterfind的網站上只需30分鐘就能完成。

????要建立水期貨市場,澳大利亞議會必須要通過新的法律。3月20日是這項法案通過的日子,也是Waterfind市場正式上線的日子。

????在此之前,經紀商和像Waterfind一樣的交易所允許土地所有人、灌溉人或農民在現貨市場上買賣即時生效的用水合同。農民可以以兆升為單位購買用水權,也可以在消費了一定數量的水后,將合同剩余水量還給土地所有人。

????引入期貨交易后,由于不必再擔心水的實物交付問題,或許將會有更多的投機者進行水交易市場。魯尼認為,目前在Waterfind上交易水期貨合同的人中,大約有五分之四是農民或土地所有人,剩下的五分之一則是投資人和交易員。

????期貨交易可以讓農民獲得某種安心,就像棉花和玉米期貨一樣。他們不用再擔心半年后收獲或灌溉時的水價到底是高還是低。農民們喜歡通過買賣期貨合同來鎖定一個固定的價格。

????水資源問題權威、哈佛大學(Harvard University)環境工程教授、前世界銀行執委約翰?布里斯科指出:“就像其它期貨市場一樣,水市場也有很大的不穩定性。期貨市場……往往是買賣雙方更有效地管理風險的一個非常重要的工具?!?/p>

????如何運作

????Waterfind的服務與其它電子期貨市場差不多,只是細節之處略有不同。這家公司不像美國的交易所那樣有一個正式的票據交換場所,但它下面有一個單位扮演了這個角色。合同上的各種預定交付日期、地點和價格讓人想起了華爾街的“訂制場外交易”衍生品市場,也就是銀行為了滿足買家或賣家的特殊要求而設計專門的金融合同。雖然Waterfind也在某些交易中扮演了經紀人的角色,不過大多數客戶目前都是獨立交易。

????用戶在水期貨電子市場上交易的感覺跟在石油期貨電子市場上交易的感覺差不多。你加入交易所后,提交銀行明細,在屏幕上就會出現兩欄合同,即買進賣出委托單。上面有用每兆升的價格、交付日和水資源的大體位置。每欄上面都是自己的指令按鈕,你可以點擊“買進”或“賣出”。

????比如,期貨市場上最近的一份報價顯示有45兆升的水合同出售,水資源的位置在維多利亞省墨累古爾本地區的1A中古爾本灌溉區,交付日期是9月1日,價格為每兆升100澳元。一旦你點擊了“買入合同”,Waterfind就會從你的賬戶中收取相當于合同價值20%的押金——這一點很像其它期貨交易所收取的“保證金”。尾款最晚可以在交付日前14日支付。但如果你是個投機者的話,你肯定不希望到那個時候還沒把合同轉手。

????如果你是個農民,到時候需要運水灌溉的話,你的土地必須要位于合同上標明的特定區域內。到9月1日,Waterfind的軟件會確保你購買的水可以交付。

????根據Waterfind提供的數據,過去三年,在澳大利亞的795個灌溉地區,短期用水權現貨合同的平均水價大約在每兆升10美元到85美元之間跳躍。澳大利亞史上最大宗的水資源交易中就有幾筆發生在這三年。但是隨著2005至2009年澳大利亞遭遇大旱,水價在干旱最嚴重的2007年10月達到了最高值,當月澳大利亞的平均水價達到每兆升1000美元。

????這番辛苦是否值得?

????雖然在這次大旱中,澳大利亞的可用地表水和地下水萎縮了超過一半,但澳大利亞的農業產值只下跌了不到三分之一。有些人(包括魯尼在內)都認為這充分說明了水商品市場的作用。很多人認為,通過給水定價的市場機制,確保了大量的水沒有白白浪費。灌溉地區的農民每畝地產出的糧食增加了,使用的水反而減少了。魯尼說:“在自由和開放的市場上,人們才能認識到水的可貴,同時利用水創造最高的產能?!?/p>

????Rooney was born into the water business. His father, Craig Rooney, was a water broker. In the Waterfind office, Rooney keeps a 1973 document recording of one of the first transactions his father arranged. Craig Rooney had to knock on the doors of farmers and landowners to arrange the transfer of water. “Everything was manual—manual contracts, and really complex government systems to go through,” Rooney says.

????When Rooney the younger took over the family business, he realized the antiquated water brokerage business could benefit from electronic stock and commodity market methods. That’s why he started Waterfind. Now, a transaction that would have taken his father’s brokerage four months to complete can settle on Waterfind’s site in 30 minutes, Rooney says.

????To launch its forward or futures market, the Australian parliament had to pass new legislation. The day the bill passed, March 20, was the day of the market’s launch.

????Up until then, brokers and exchanges like Waterfind had allowed landowners and “irrigators,” or farmers, to buy and sell rights with immediate effect on the “spot” market. Farmers would purchase the rights per mega liter, and then surrender them back to the landowner after a certain amount was consumed.

????The ability to trade futures without having to worry about taking physical delivery of the water could draw more speculative investors into the market. So far, Rooney estimates about four out of every five people who trade in Waterfind’s forward market are farmers or landowners while the rest are investors and traders.

????For farmers, the addition of futures to the exchange is supposed to provide the kind of peace of mind that came with cotton and corn futures. Rather than gambling on where the price will be at harvest or irrigation time six months from now, farmers like to lock in prices by buying or selling a futures contract.

????“Just as for these other markets, there is a lot of volatility in the water market,” says John Briscoe, professor of environmental engineering at Harvard University and a former World Bank executive who is considered an authority on water issues. “Futures markets … are one—often very important—instrument for both buyers and sellers to manage risks more effectively.”

????How it works

????Waterfind’s service works much like any other electronic futures exchange, with a few twists. The firm does not have a formal clearinghouse, as U.S. exchanges do, but one of its units acts in that capacity. The wide variety of custom delivery dates, locations, and prices on the contracts recall what’s known on Wall Street as a “bespoke, over-the-counter” derivatives market, where banks design financial contracts to specific requirements of the buyers or sellers. Unlike those markets, however, Waterfind displays quotes to all parties—one of the defining traits of an exchange. Waterfind also acts as a broker on some of the trades, though the majority of its clients now trade on their own.

????For the user, the experience is just like that of an electronic oil-trading market. You join the exchange, handing over your banking details. On your screen, you see two columns of contracts—buy and sell orders—with the price per mega-liter, date of delivery, and rough location of the water source. Each column has its own command button so you can click “buy on order” or “sell to order.”

????For example, a recent quote on the forward market showed a sell order for 45 megaliters of water on a temporary supply with a delivery date of Sept. 1 and a price of $100 a megaliter in the 1A Central Goulburn Irrigation Area of the Goulburn Murray region of the state of Victoria. Once you click on the command “buy on order,” Waterfind will take a deposit of 20% of the value of the water out of your account—much as other futures exchanges require a “margin” payment upon opening a trade. The balance is payable 14 days before the delivery date. As a speculator, of course, you will hope to have sold out of your position long before then.

????If you were a farmer who wanted to take delivery of the water, your land would have to be in the specific area named on the contract on Sept. 1. Waterfind’s software would ensure the water you bought was deliverable.

????According to data supplied by Waterfind, the average spot price of temporary water rights in the 795 irrigation regions in Australia has bounced between roughly $10 and $85 a megaliter for the last three years. Some of the highest volumes of water to date traded in Australia during those years. But the price peaked in October 2007, at the nadir of the drought that lasted from 2005 to 2009. The national average price that month was $1000 a megaliter, says Rooney.

????Worth the effort?

????While the ground and surface water available for use in Australia shrunk by more than half during that drought, agricultural production only fell by less than one third. Some people—including Rooney—say that proves water markets work. The idea is that by putting a price on water, the markets ensured that less was wasted. Farmers on irrigated land produced more food per acre while using less water. “(On) free and open markets, people could then realize the value of water and water shifted to highest productive use,” Rooney says.

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