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iPod之父法德爾親口講述Nest誕生記:掘金1000萬只恒溫器大市場

iPod之父法德爾親口講述Nest誕生記:掘金1000萬只恒溫器大市場

Adam Lashinsky 2014年06月26日
Nest聯合創始人托尼?法德爾曾是喬布斯的助手,如今又被人們比作拉里?佩奇。他發明新型恒溫器的靈感從何而來?聽聽他自己怎么說。

????托尼?法德爾曾經是蘋果公司(Apple)高管,離職后與人共同創建了Nest【這家公司最近被谷歌(Google)斥資32億美元收購】。他因為創造性的思維和顛覆性的技術被人們比作史蒂夫?喬布斯以及拉里?佩奇。

????2014年6月30日出版的《財富》雜志將刊登一篇關于法德爾的特寫。此外,他最近還出席了在加州拉古納尼古爾召開的《財富》綠色頭腦風暴大會(Brainstorm Green Conference)。下面是雜志當期報道中未能收錄的一些法德爾的想法。

????《財富》:你創建了Nest,開發了公司的第一款產品——恒溫器。說說你當時靈光一現的頓悟時刻吧。

????法德爾:首先,我問自己,這個產品構思好不好?我的回答是:“這個產品構思很好,市場上還沒有類似產品。我在網上什么都能查。但市場上就是沒有類似產品。然后我問:“那這項業務是否具備商業價值?我知道我能開發出產品,但這是樁好生意嗎?我接著問:“這款產品每年的銷量有多大?整個市場有多大?”

????我研究發現,“哇,光美國就有25萬個恒溫器?那它的更新率如何?”我發現,光住宅和輕型商用恒溫器每年就要更換1000多萬只。我當時想道:“天吶,1000萬個?這比游戲機要多!比洗衣機、干衣機、爐灶和烤箱都要多。這是個大市場。”我們渴望找到大市場,對吧?那么還有哪些是大市場?自行車市場的規模與之相當。只不過人們可能不覺得這是個大市場。就好比我們當年做iPod時,很多人都說:“CD播放器市場沒錢賺。已經實現商品化了。沒戲了。去干別的吧!”產品銷量停滯,產品價格連年下降。這種市場往往到了該創新的時候。

????于是你有了一個自己喜歡的想法。然后呢?

????然后我調查了一下競爭對手,我說:“我們來看看誰有實力開發出下一代恒溫器。”我研究了所有主要的恒溫器廠商,嘗試尋找正在開發新型恒溫器的初創企業。我想:“假如這個領域真的有創新,我肯定能看到。”但似乎沒有任何動靜。經過更深入的研究,我發現,大約70%的恒溫器都是通過批發銷售。因此,它們并不是在面向使用者進行設計。過去恒溫器的設計只是為了幫助安裝者安裝和銷售盡可能多的產品。換言之,這一切跟消費者完全沒關系。于是我告訴自己:“這個市場思維僵化,消費者難以真正了解產品。競爭對手固步自封,不求進取。而且,這個領域沒有任何創新。”

????Tony Fadell, a former Apple AAPL -1.03% executive who went on to co-found Nest (which recently sold to Google GOOG 0.26% for $3.2 billion), has been likened to Steve Jobs and Larry Page for his innovative thinking and disruptive technology.

????Following our recent feature story about him in the June 30, 2014 issue of Fortune magazine—as wellhis recent appearance at the Fortune Brainstorm Green conference in Laguna Nigel, Calif.—here are some of his thoughts that didn’t make the magazine story.

????Fortune: Tell me your ‘Aha! moment’ in starting Nest, with its first product being a thermostat.

????Fadell: Well, first, I asked, was there a good product idea? And I thought, “Yeah, there’s a good product idea. Okay, there’s none out there. I can research everything on the web. There’s just nothing there.” So then I said, “Okay. Is it a good business? I know I can make this thing. Is it a good business?” And then I asked, “How many are being sold a year? What’s the total available market?”

????And when I started doing the research, I was like, “Wait a second. There’s a quarter of a million thermostats in the U.S. alone? Well, if there’s that, what’s the replacement rate?” And I looked and it was over 10 million a year for just residential and light commercial thermostats. I was like, “Wait a second. 10 million? That’s more than game machines! That’s more than washers, dryers, stoves, and ovens. That’s a big market.” We’re dying to find big markets, right? So what else is out there? Bicycles are about the same. Now, people might not perceive it as such. It was just like when we were doing the iPod, people were like, “There’s no money in CD players. It’s commoditized. There’s nothing there. Move on!” The number of units is stagnant, and the price drops every year. That’s the kind of market that’s usually ripe for innovation.

????So you had an idea you liked. Then what?

????Then I looked at the competition, and I said, “Let’s look who can do what it takes to make this next-generation thermostat.” I went down all the current incumbents, and tried to look for startups that were doing it. And every time I looked, I was like, “Wait a second. If there was true innovation here, I would be seeing it.” It didn’t seem like there was any activity. And then I looked further and I learned that about 70% of thermostats were sold through wholesale. So they weren’t being designed for people to use. They were being designed for installers to install and sell as many as they possibly could. It had nothing to do about the consumer. And then I said, “Wait a second. There’s a market with an old way of thinking in terms of how the consumer learns about the product. The competition is old and hasn’t moved. And third, there’s no innovation whatsoever.”

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