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谷歌無人駕駛汽車會不會顛覆傳統汽車制造業格局

谷歌無人駕駛汽車會不會顛覆傳統汽車制造業格局

Doron Levin 2014年06月03日
盡管數碼技術正在迅猛發展,但汽車生產商并不愿意將對汽車“大腦”的控制權拱手讓人。不過,谷歌研發的無人駕駛汽車已經具備了這樣的潛力。

????谷歌(Google)宣布,公司正在研發一款沒有方向盤、剎車和油門的原型車,并稱這款車將于一年之內發布,此舉使得無人駕駛汽車的商業化進程又向前邁進了一大步。

????這家公司打算證明,讓乘客安全地通過無人駕駛汽車抵達目的地是可以實現的——盡管速度不會超過每小時25英里(約合每小時40.2公里)。汽車行駛期間,乘客只需要確定目的地,不需要做其他任何事情。

????項目主管克里斯?厄姆森認為,無人駕駛技術通過降低車禍率,減少因此導致的傷亡事件,從而有可能“減輕痛苦,產生廣泛的社會影響力”。厄姆森引用數據稱,美國每年都會發生大約3.2萬起車禍,而每年全世界會發生120萬起。他在本周三的電話新聞發布會上表示,研發這項技術的另一個動機是讓老年人和殘疾人也擁有行動能力。

????汽車業的高管已經開始推測谷歌在無人駕駛技術上的商業策略。谷歌從2009年起開始研發這項技術,并在豐田(Toyota)和雷克薩斯(Lexus)的專用車型上進行了論證。盡管谷歌揚名立萬主要是靠它的網絡搜索和廣告服務,但這家公司的研究人員已經與全球的汽車生產商探討過無人駕駛項目,增加了它尋求同盟或合作的可能性。

????有些人對谷歌是否有能力成為大型汽車生產商提出了質疑。不過,特斯拉(Tesla)過去也沒有生產汽車的經歷,卻迅速地搖身一變成為汽車生產商。

????谷歌原型車的藍圖像是一輛小型的城市輕便車,而不是傳統的轎車。汽車外部也許會比較柔軟,以此保護可能不慎撞上它的行人或騎自行車的人。

????厄姆森并沒有排除谷歌聯合其他汽車生產商的可能性。不過谷歌開發自有汽車的決定可能會影響、甚至促使汽車業高管和工程師的思路和規劃加快步伐。到目前為止,全球的汽車生產商仍著眼于循序漸進的步驟,比如自適應巡航控制系統、幫助司機的自動制動器、在汽車上提供后備系統等等。他們還沒有考慮徹底讓汽車自己控制自己。

????主流的汽車生產商通常會采用高科技傳感器及高科技元素,這些在許多高端汽車上已經得以采用,比如“輔助駕駛”功能。少數汽車公司已經開始關注軟件和人工智能領域的飛速發展,利用它們或許可以讓汽車比在人類的操控下更安全地行進。這些公司已經提出了研發無人駕駛汽車的計劃。法國雷諾(Renault)和日本日產(Nissan)的首席執行官卡洛斯?戈恩已經確立目標:在2020年推出一款無人駕駛汽車。沃爾沃(Volvo)也向記者展示了一款不需要司機,可以自動泊車的產品。這家公司表示,這款汽車將于2017年上市。

????我們可以理解,盡管數碼技術正在迅猛發展,但汽車生產商并不愿意將他們對汽車“大腦”的控制權拱手讓給谷歌或其他第三方。最有遠見的思想家已經開始設想將汽車作為電子商務的平臺,駕駛員可以在光臨沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)或麥當勞(McDonald)時得到折扣或其他優惠。如果谷歌的思路沒錯,那么汽車以后便不必時刻搭載車主,也可以根據需要空駛、搭載旅客或運送貨物。

????對許多人來說,乘坐自動駕駛的汽車出行就算不嚇人,也似乎是不現實的事情。但是谷歌已經實現了幾十萬英里的駕駛測試,而且沒有出現事故。其他公司也一樣。汽車業,尤其是其中的新秀,正在證明高科技汽車將會擁有曾經只在科幻小說中描繪過的能力。(財富中文網)

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Google pushed the commercialization of self-driving cars a giant step forward by announcing it is building a prototype vehicle – without steering wheel, brakes, or an accelerator – and will demonstrate it within a year.

????The company aims to prove that the means are within reach to allow passengers to travel safely to their destination in a self-driving vehicle – albeit at a speed not exceeding 25 miles per hour. Occupants will have no other role in the vehicle's operation beyond stating their destination.

????Chris Urmson, director of the project, hailed driverless technology's potential "to alleviate pain and to have a broad societal impact" by reducing the number of accidents, deaths, and injuries from accidents. He cited the roughly 32,000 automotive fatalities annually in the U.S. and 1.2 million worldwide. Another motivation for developing the technology, he said, during a phone press conference Wednesday morning, was to provide mobility to the elderly and disabled.

????Auto industry executives have speculated about Google's business strategy for self-driving technology, which it has been developing since 2009 and demonstrating on specially adapted Toyota (TM) and Lexus vehicles. Though known mostly for Internet search and advertising, Google researchers have discussed the project with global automakers, raising the possibility that it was shooting for an alliance or collaboration.

????Some have questioned Google's (GOOG) ability to mass manufacturer vehicles. Then again, Tesla (TSLA) had no history of building cars and it turned itself into a manufacturer in short order.

????The drawing of Google's prototype suggests a small urban runabout that looks nothing like a conventional car. The exterior will be soft, to protect pedestrians or bicyclists that might bump into it.

????Urmson didn't rule out that Google might join forces with another automaker. Yet the company's decision to create its own vehicle could influence, affect, and perhaps accelerate the thinking and plans of auto industry executives and engineers. Until now, global automakers have thought in terms of incremental steps, such as adaptive cruise control and automatic braking that aid drivers and provide backup systems, without assuming complete control.

????Mainstream automakers often refer to high-tech sensors and features, already available on many premium models, as providing "co-piloting." A few auto companies have kept an eye on the rapid development of software and artificial intelligence that arguably can drive a car more safely than a human and have announced plans to offer a driverless car. Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of Renault and Nissan, has targeted 2020 for introduction of a driverless model. Volvo has demonstrated a car that can self-park, without a driver, to journalists; it will be available in 2017, the company says.

????As digital technology proliferates, automakers are understandably reluctant to relinquish control of their vehicles' "brains" to Google or any third-party. The most far-sighted thinkers are beginning to imagine the car as a platform for e-commerce, where drivers might receive discounts and other offers as they approach a Wal-Mart (WMT) or a McDonald's (MCD). If Google is right, that motorists no longer need to drive, cars may wind up carrying no occupants at times and could ride empty, picking up travelers or delivering merchandise as needed.

????For many, the thought of traveling in a car that drives itself may seem improbable, if not horrifying. But Google already has logged hundreds of thousands of accident-free test miles. Others have as well. The auto industry, particularly its newest members, is proving that highly advanced vehicles will possess abilities once only described as science fiction.

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