美國(guó)前財(cái)長(zhǎng)蒂姆?蓋特納: 批準(zhǔn)雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)是一個(gè)局
????雷曼危在旦夕之時(shí),這些危機(jī)救火隊(duì)員正在努力突破那些在司法和政治層面限制他們阻止雷曼倒閉的障礙。但這并不是他們當(dāng)時(shí)告訴局外人的狀況。他們希望促進(jìn)信心與安定,造成這樣的印象:雷曼破產(chǎn)是他們做出的一個(gè)精心決定,他們堅(jiān)信金融市場(chǎng)已為可能發(fā)生一場(chǎng)大災(zāi)難做好了充分準(zhǔn)備——自6個(gè)月前貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)接近破產(chǎn),這個(gè)災(zāi)難就已經(jīng)變得十分迫切。這就是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員向媒體記者、他們?cè)诟鱾€(gè)市場(chǎng)的聯(lián)絡(luò)人,甚至其他央行官員發(fā)出的信息。 ????我就是曾經(jīng)從美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)獲得這個(gè)信息的那些記者中的一員——當(dāng)然,這不能報(bào)道。因此,盡管我喜歡、尊重蓋特納,我沒(méi)有被他“未被理解”的悲情所打動(dòng)。此外,他將所有的指責(zé)都?xì)w咎于伯南克和保爾森有點(diǎn)俗。 ????但現(xiàn)如今,我將站在蓋特納一邊。他寫(xiě)道,美國(guó)納稅人從救助金融體系賺了錢(qián),而不是像大多數(shù)人所認(rèn)為的那樣虧了數(shù)百億,結(jié)果讓自己陷入了麻煩。蓋特納認(rèn)為,截至2013年底收益為1,660億美元。 ????我可以聯(lián)系先前的事件講述一下。2011年,我當(dāng)時(shí)的同事多尼斯?伯克和我寫(xiě)了一篇題為《納稅人最終將從救助行動(dòng)中獲利》的文章。我們這么說(shuō)的確引來(lái)了不少麻煩——但這最終證明是對(duì)的。我很高興蓋特納指出了這一點(diǎn)。以我的數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算,(納稅人獲得的)收益約為3,000億美元。 ????沒(méi)錯(cuò),蓋特納也有“致命的弱點(diǎn)”。但在他《壓力測(cè)試》這本書(shū)中有很多風(fēng)光點(diǎn)——而他對(duì)于救助計(jì)劃的計(jì)算就是其中一個(gè)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) |
????By the time Lehman was on the brink, the crisis fighters were running up against the legal and political limits of their ability to stop it from going under. That, however, wasn't what they told the outside world at the time. They wanted to project confidence and calm, to give the impression that the Lehman bankruptcy was a deliberate decision they'd made out of their convictions that the financial markets were sufficiently prepared for the possibility of such a failure -- which had seemed imminent ever since the near collapse of Bear Stearns six months earlier. That was the message Fed officials voiced to reporters, their contacts in the markets, and even other central bankers. ????I'm one of the reporters who got that message from the Fed -- off the record, of course. So although I like and respect Geithner, I'm less than sympathetic to his "It's poorly understood" lament. Besides, it's tacky for him to put all the blame on Bernanke and Paulson. ????Now, though, I'll come to Geithner's defense. He's gotten grief for writing that U.S. taxpayers have made money on the bailout of the financial system, rather than losing hundreds of billions of dollars as most people believe. Geithner puts the profit at $166 billion as of year-end 2013. ????I can relate. In 2011, my then-colleague Doris Burke and I wrote that taxpayers would come out ahead on the bailout. We got a lot of grief for saying that -- but it turned out to be true. I'm glad that Geithner pointed it out. By my math, the profit is probably about $300 billion. ????Yes, Geithner has feet of clay. But he has plenty of good moments in Stress Test -- and his bailout math is one of them. |
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