??? 今年的五月五日節，美國人民喜愛的瑪格麗特酒里可能將見不到檸檬片的身影了。但是大范圍的檸檬短缺持續的時間可能不會像很多人一開始想的那么久。

????正如最近媒體所報道的，在墨西哥的極端天氣、檸檬黃龍病泛濫以及果農受販毒集團暴力洗劫等多重因素作用下，墨西哥的檸檬已然很難出口到美國。這對墨西哥的北方鄰居產生了重大影響，因為美國有97%的檸檬都是從墨西哥進口的。

????去年美國檸檬的價格飆升了400%，一箱40磅重的檸檬的價格已經上漲到了100美元，相比之下前年美國的檸檬價格每箱只有15到20美元。檸檬短缺的原因有一部分是因為上年墨西哥中部地區的暴雨使收成損失慘重，而作為另一個檸檬主要產區的科利馬州則遇到了黃龍病的肆虐。（黃龍病是影響全球柑桔類水果產量的主要病害）美國的佛羅里達州也發現了青果病的案例，而加利佛尼亞州又遭遇了嚴重的干旱，難以彌補進口檸檬的不足。

????與此同時，在墨西哥的檸檬產區米卻肯州境內，有一個叫做“圣殿騎士團”的販毒集團對果農們形成了很大威脅。“圣殿騎士團”原來是已被搗毀的販毒集團“米卻肯家族”的一支。在騷亂和暴力的逼迫下，當地的企業主包括果農紛紛走上街頭對販毒集團進行抗議示威。墨西哥政府已經部署軍隊鎮壓騷亂，并敦促民間武裝在5月10日前停火。

????雖然毒販和槍戰聽起來很嚇人，但眼下這場檸檬危機卻可能并不像我們想象的那樣無解。根據企業軟件公司SAP的數據分析集團的分析顯示，人們可能忽略了價格的季節性波動。通過對美國食品和藥品監督管理局（USDA）發布的市場信息的分析，SAP公司發現，由于冬季產量較低，檸檬的價格歷來在春季較高，這也就意味著隨著產量在夏季回升，檸檬的價格不久便會下降，而且現在這種勢頭已經開始了。

????Americans may have had to enjoy Cinco de Mayo margaritas sans lime this year, but the widespread shortage of the citrus fruit may be a bit more fleeting than originally thought.

????As previously reported, the potent combination of severe weather in Mexico, the spread of the citrus-greening disease huanglongbing (HLB), and the extortion of lime farmers by drug cartels has made it pretty difficult to export the round, green fruit to the United States. The ripple was felt across Mexico's neighbor to the north as a vast majority (97%) of limes are imported from Mexico.

????Prices have soared 400% over the last year, resulting in limes selling for upwards of $100 per 40-pound box, compared to the $15 to $20 cases just a year ago. The shortage is partly caused by heavy rain last season in central Mexico while another lime hub, Colima, experienced the spread of HLB. Florida has also reported cases of citrus greening while California is gripped by severe droughts, making it difficult to compensate on lime crops.

????Now, The Knights Templar, a drug cartel formerly part of the now-dismantled La Familia Michoacána, is reportedly threatening farmers in the lime-producing state of Michoacán. Turmoil and violence have swept the region as business owners, including lime farmers, rally together to fend off the drug cartel. Mexican government officials have deployed military to quell the fighting and are urging the vigilante groups to ceasefire by May 10.

????But a drug war aside, the lime crisis may not be as dire as we think. According to analysis by the data analytics group of the business software company SAP, the numbers tell a different story -- one that suggests that people are forgetting the seasonality of pricing. By crunching data from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USDA) Market News, SAP found that prices are historically higher in the spring due to low production in the winter, which means a price drop is on the horizon -- and already beginning -- as production picks up this summer.???????

????SAP公司的高級分析主管尼爾?史密斯表示，檸檬產量的季節性與定價之間的關系可以利用進一步的分析來確定。但是從市場定價的差異化可以看出，不同的地區在如何應對價格的異常走高。如下圖所示，芝加哥和底特律等地的檸檬價格相比之下要低于費城和波士頓等地，后兩座城市的檸檬價格高達每箱120美元。

????Nic Smith, senior director of analytics at SAP, acknowledges that the relationship between the seasonality of limes and pricing is an area that could use further analysis. But differentiation in market pricing, Smith notes, is an interesting glimpse at how different regions are grappling with price disruption. As the map illustrates, Chicago and Detroit are experiencing lower prices compared to cities like Philadelphia and Boston, where cases go for as high as $120.