????波音公司（Boeing）上周公布了2014年第一季度業績：公司收入同比增長了8%，營業利潤率也實現了上升，同時還上調了全年業績預期。這個業績可能會讓波音公司和它的投資者無比滿意。為了跟上需求的步伐，這家公司提高了波音787和波音737的交貨數量，從而使現金流增幅超過了分析師的預期。未完成訂單價值3740億美元，包括5100多架飛機，就算波音從現在開始不再接受新訂單（當然不會出現這種情況，第一季度波音又接下了235架商用飛機訂單），波音還需要將近10年的時間才能全部完成手頭的訂單。

????不過，雖然波音公司在上周的業績報告會上對這個問題一筆帶過，但波音的國防、空間和安全（BDS）業務顯然沒有這么紅火。國防業務收入有所下滑，部分原因是波音P-8反潛機的交貨量沒有達到預期，而且這個機型的生產也不太順利。隨著洛克西德-馬丁公司（Lockheed Martin）制造的F-35戰斗機開始取代美國各兵種的主力機型（以及美國多個盟友所使用的戰斗機），再加上全球范圍內大宗訂單的全面下降，波音至少要關閉兩條主要生產線（C-17運輸機和美國海軍主力機型F-18），而且至少還有幾條生產線將面臨壓力。波音公司的服務合同及配套收入也會減少，原因是其它現有設備的壽命即將到期。

????國防業務滑坡對波音來說不是特別嚴重的問題（有幾年，國防業務在波音總收入中的比重高達50%）。航空業分析師已經表示，波音的商用飛機業務欣欣向榮，但他們擔心國防業務會成為前者的致命弱點。不過，BDS業務并沒有坐以待斃。

????航空業獨立分析師、航空業咨詢公司Brian Foley Associates總裁布萊恩?弗雷說：“波音的多個項目都處于減速狀態，有些甚至會停產。它設在長灘的C-17生產線將在明年年中停產，這件事看來已經八九不離十。F-15和F1-8正在減產，而且也有可能停產。同時，人們并不總是明確地把V-22魚鷹視為長久之計。但我認為，人們要用發展變化的眼光來看待波音的軍用飛機業務。它并非一成不變。”

????許多影響波音公司國防業務的因素都不在波音的控制范圍內。不過，波音正在削減開支，展開反擊。最近幾個月，員工超過5.7萬人的波音國防業務推出了一些多元化產品，它們和波音賴以成名的傳統軍用飛機不同。它還向海外買家大力推銷自己的現有平臺，甚至針對美國國防部（U.S. Department of Defense）看重的新一代多用途戰斗機——新型F-35采取了一些行動。波音表示，公司已經投產的EA-18G咆哮者（F-18用于電子戰的衍生型號）的電子戰能力要超過F-35。

????BDS業務負責業務發展和戰略的副總裁克里斯?雷蒙德說：“我們一直都目的明確。我們一直在努力為我們預見到的情況做準備。我們知道，為此我們要在國防和安全領域之內實現多元化發展，而不是在這個領域之外。當然，有些需求和采購方式正在發生調整，我們也正在考察一些非傳統領域。”

????這些領域包括能源、水下自主航行器和地面車輛。去年底，波音推出了“幻影獾”多用途四輪軍用吉普。這種吉普車可由V-22魚鷹傾斜旋翼機（波音和貝爾直升機公司（Bell Helicopter）合作開發的產品）搭載并部署，明顯偏離了波音的核心——飛機制造業務（此前波音生產的最知名地面車輛可能是參與了后幾次阿波羅登月任務的月球車。大家應該能想到，這個產品的銷量不是特別大）。

????BDS業務還在考慮通過依托于現有平臺的支持性服務來提高收入水平。雷蒙德指出，他們甚至有可能更進一步，“就支持性服務而言，我期待著我們在多元化方面進行一些嘗試。有時候，這只是意味著用不同的方式把各項服務組合起來，特別是在國際市場。而在某些領域，我們甚至已經想到可以針對非波音平臺開展業務，或者為其他公司制造的飛機提供服務。”

????不過，并不是所有人都相信產品和服務多元化足以讓波音保住美國第二大國防承包商的位置——沒錯，第一名是洛克希德-馬丁。設在弗吉尼亞州的航空業咨詢機構蒂爾集團（Teal Group）負責分析業務的副總裁理查德?阿伯拉菲亞引用了洛克希德-馬丁前首席執行官、美國國防部前副部長諾姆?奧古斯丁的話。奧古斯丁曾說：“縱觀航空業歷史，多元化并不是全都取得了成功。”

????阿伯拉菲亞說：“我已經不像幾年前那么樂觀，原因有很多。整體看來，這些公司已經不太可能像以前那樣有能力維持利潤和收入水平。”

????他指出，國防開支的大環境正在惡化，特別是正在滑坡的旋翼機市場，這些都讓人感到擔心。此外，C-17、F-18和F-15產量的不斷下降乃至停產都有可能妨礙整個BDS業務的發展。

????Boeing (BA) and its investors likely couldn't be happier with the first-quarter 2014 earnings report it issued last week: Revenue rose 8% over the year-ago quarter, operating margins widened, and 2014 guidance got boosted. The U.S. aerospace company ramped up deliveries for its 787 and 737 models to keep pace with demand, which in turn increased cash flow beyond analyst expectations. And a $374 billion backlog of more than 5,100 aircraft guarantees that even if Boeing stopped booking new orders today (and it surely will not; the company booked 235 new commercial jet orders during the quarter) it would take nearly a decade to deliver all the planes on order.

????But though Boeing brass didn't linger on the topic during last week's earnings call, things don't appear quite so rosy in Boeing's Defense, Space & Security division. Defense revenues slipped somewhat, partially due to lower-than-expected deliveries of Boeing's submarine-hunting P-8 Poseidon, for which production isn't going quite as smoothly. With the Lockheed Martin-built F-35 set to replace various workhorse aircraft across the U.S. military (and the fleets of many of its allies) and overall reductions in big-ticket military buys across the globe, Boeing faces the closure of at least two major production lines (the C-17 cargo carrier and U.S. Navy workhorse F-18) and pressure on at least a few more. It also faces reduced service contracts and other ancillary revenues as other legacy systems approach end-of-life status.

????A slowdown in Boeing's defense business is no insignificant matter for the company. (In some years, it accounts for as much as half of the company's total revenues.) Aerospace analysts have voiced concerns that the defense segment is the Achilles heel to the company's otherwise flourishing commercial jet business. But the BDS division isn't taking its punches lying down.

????"There's a confluence of Boeing programs slowing down, if not coming to an end," says Brian Foley, an independent aerospace industry analyst and president of Brian Foley Associates. "It seems pretty firm that the C-17 program will be closing down its Long Beach facility in the middle of next year. The F-15 and F-18 are slowing down and could be coming to an end. The V-22 isn't always a clear long-term survivor in people's minds either. But I think you have to look at the military section of Boeing as an ongoing process. It's not static."

????Many of the factors affecting Boeing's defense business lie outside of its control. Still, the company is retrenching and striking back. In recent months, Boeing's 57,000-strong defense team has introduced products that diversify its portfolio away from the traditional aircraft for which it is known, aggressively shopped its existing platforms to foreign buyers, and even taken a few swings at the new F-35, declaring its existing EA-18G Growler -- a variant of the F-18 suited to electronic warfare -- a more capable electronic warfighter than the U.S. Department of Defense's prized next-generation, all-purpose fighter.

????"It has been purposeful," says Chris Raymond, vice president of business development and strategy for Boeing Defense, Space & Security. "We've been trying to prepare for the environment we saw ahead of us. We knew that would require us not to diversify outside of defense and security but to diversify inside of it. Some needs and buying practices are adjusting, and there are a few areas that are non-traditional that we're taking a look at."

????Those areas include energy, underwater autonomous vehicles, and ground vehicles. Late last year, Boeing unveiled the Phantom Badger, a versatile four-wheeled truck/transport designed to deploy from the cargo bay of the V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft (a Boeing product in collaboration with Bell Helicopter), marking a noticeable departure from Boeing's core aircraft manufacturing business. (Previously, the company's best-known ground vehicle was likely the Lunar Roving Vehicle that traveled to the moon on several of the later Apollo missions. As you can imagine, Boeing didn't sell very many.)

????The BDS division is also looking at boosting revenue through support services on its existing platforms, Raymond says, and it may move beyond that. "On the support side, looking forward we're trying to diversify a bit," he says. "Sometimes that means just bundling your services together differently, especially internationally. And in some areas we've even looked at where we can do work on non-Boeing platforms or provide services on non-Boeing fleets."

????But not everyone is convinced diversifying products and services will be enough to keep Boeing in its position as the nation's No. 2 defense contractor, behind -- you guessed it -- Lockheed Martin (LMT). Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at the Virginia-based aerospace consultancy Teal Group, invokes former Lockheed CEO and former undersecretary of the Army Norm Augustine, who once observed that the "industry's record of diversification is unblemished by success."

????"I'm not as optimistic as I was a few years ago for a variety of reasons," Aboulafia says of BDS's near-term prospects. "Their broader ability to sustain the profits and revenue they've been enjoying looks less likely."

????Aboulafia cites the broader softening of the defense spending environment and, in particular, a softening in the rotorcraft segment as reasons for concern. Further, the likely slowing or outright demise of the C-17, F-18, and F-15 production lines threaten to impede the division's overall trajectory.