????互聯網顛覆了幾乎每一個行業，但或許沒有哪一個行業比零售業經歷的變革更為徹底。互聯網近乎全球的覆蓋范圍以及智能電話的迅速普及推動我們的購物方式和零售商的競爭方式都發生了數不勝數的改變。未來一些年還將發生更多的變化，以下是需要我們關注的三大趨勢。

????傳統實體店將長期存在

????很多大型零售商要么已經關門歇業（比如，圖書零售商Borders和電子產品零售商Circuit City），要么仍在苦苦掙扎【比如，玩具零售商玩具反斗城（Toys 'R' Us）和電子產品零售商百思買（Best Buy）】，這是因為互聯網可以更好地實現以極低價格向消費者提供大量多樣化的產品。隨著越來越多連鎖店關門，似乎表明我們如今根本就不需要這么多實體店（難道我們過去就需要這么多嗎？），因為通過互聯網更容易實現比價購買和重復購買。

????但是，沒有人覺得實體店會完全消亡。本地零售商（大家可以身臨其境品嘗、感受、體驗產品的地方？）仍然有它存在的價值。發生改變的是，零售商已經認識到需要用一些嘗試體驗活動來吸引客戶。紐約市藥品連鎖店Duane Reade將旗下藥店分成了三個區域：購買即食產品的“高端市場”；提供美容、美甲、試香和虛擬造型服務的“時尚精品店” ，以及由專業人士提供健康建議的“藥店”。所有這些都是需要客戶真正走進店內，獲得親身體驗的服務。

????線上和線下購物：無縫體驗

????零售商一直在討論“全渠道零售”，這個行業術語指的是零售商可以在實體和數字商店之間無縫轉換。這是很多零售商夢寐以求的目標，但如今看來，鮮有零售商是完完全全的“全渠道零售”，在庫存、預算、薪酬和銷售/采購流程各方面實現了完全的整合。

????大多數傳統線下零售商也理解發展電子商務和移動平臺的必要性。有趣的是，對于純線上零售商，它們也同樣考慮“全渠道零售”。Warby Parker等電子商務品牌正在設立線下展示間、實體店和印有品牌標識的送貨卡車。Warby發現，為線上銷售產品開設實體店可產生積極的協同效應。

????零售行業還發現，將所有這些渠道整合起來的關鍵節點是智能手機。智能手機不僅將線上和線下聯系起來，而且可能提供出色的社交媒體營銷策略機會。由著名設計師斯黛西?班戴擔綱的時尚設計公司Alice and Olivia開有自己的博客，在社交媒體上也很活躍。歸根結底，“全渠道零售”將不再是一種工具，而是將成為零售商的生存方式。

????更迅速的線上發貨

????這些趨勢從根本上改變了消費者的購買行為。線上零售商最初為了打消消費者的顧慮，吸引更多人購物，都會采用免費送貨和免費退貨的政策。這種做法徹底改變了消費者的預期。現在，如果他們不確定到底該選哪一雙鞋，他們可以同時定好幾雙，在自己家里試穿。他們可以自己拍照，發到網上，看看朋友們的反應。

????送貨時間的預期也縮短了。eBay的“eBay Now”服務一直在嘗試（針對一些城市地區）推廣一項計劃，只要你想要的商品在當地商店也能買到，無論你身處何方，eBay都可以在一個小時內快遞給你。由此，不可避免的是，將來消費者可能會認為，一天24小時無論何時想要什么東西都可以。

????消費者能夠輕松地搜索眾多的零售商和品牌產品，從中選擇，這也推動消費者更快地成熟起來。價格敏感的消費者可以搜索到最優價格。成熟的消費者可以輕松學習產品特性，搜索最佳的產品配置。

????隨著消費者越來越成熟，兩頭都夠不著的零售商將難以生存。但是，如果一個品牌懂得消費者，能專注于消費者需求，提供無與倫比的品牌購物體驗，這樣的品牌仍將繁榮發展。（財富中文網）

????本文作者芭芭拉?卡恩是賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院杰伊?貝克零售中心主任兼營銷教授。她同時還在擔任零售與消費產品高管峰會的主席。

????The Internet has upended nearly every industry, but perhaps no category has undergone a more radical transformation than retail. Near-global access to the Internet and speedy adoption rates of smartphones have spawned countless changes to the way we shop and how retailers compete. In the coming years, there will be many more changes, but here are three big trends to watch for.

????Long live brick-and-mortar stores

????Many big-box retailers are either closing (e.g. Borders, Circuit City) or struggling (e.g., Toys 'R' Us, Best Buy), as the business model of providing consumers with a huge assortment of products at very low price is better delivered online. And as we see more chain stores close, it seems we just don't need as many physical outlets (did we ever?) since price-based and repeat buying are easier online.

????However, no one is predicting the complete demise of the physical store. Local retailers -- where you can touch, smell, and feel the product -- still offer value. What's changing is that retailers have begun to recognize the need for experiential events to lure customers. Drugstore Duane Reade in New York City has divided their stores into three areas: The "up market," where you can buy ready-to-eat meals; the "Look boutique," which offers salon and nail services, fragrance testers, and virtual makeovers; the "pharmacy," where health professionals offer health advice. All of these require the consumer to actually walk into stores that offer services best delivered in person.

????Shopping on- and offline: A seamless experience

????Retailers have been talking a lot about "omni channel," an industry term that means shoppers can transition seamlessly between both physical and digital stores. It's something many retailers aspire to, but for now, few are totally omni-channel, whereby their online and physical businesses are fully integrated in terms of inventories, budgets, compensation, and sales/purchases processes.

????Most traditional offline retailers understand the need to develop their e-commerce and mobile platforms. Interestingly, the same is true for pure-play online retailers in that they too are thinking about omni-channel strategies. E-commerce brands, such as Warby Parker, are opening offline showrooms, physical stores, and branded delivery trucks. Warby has found that there are positive synergies when they open up physical stores for their online sales.

????The retailing industry also recognizes that the critical connector integrating all of these channels is the smartphone. The smartphone not only connects online to offline but also offers the possibility of clever social media strategies. Fashion design firm Alice and Olivia by Stacey Bendet publishes a blog and is active on social media. Eventually the words "omni-channel" will cease to be useful, and the term will simply become a way of life for retailers.

????Faster online deliveries

????These trends are fundamentally changing consumers' shopping behavior. When online retailers first tempted shoppers to become less risk averse and buy online, they offered free delivery and free returns. This radically changed consumers' expectations. Now, if they were unsure of which shoes to choose from, they could order several pairs and try them on at home. They could take photos of themselves and post them and get friends' reactions.

????Expectations for delivery times are shortening as well. eBay's "eBay Now" has been test-marketing a program (in some urban cities) where anything that you want that is available in a local store can be delivered to you wherever you are within an hour. It seems inevitable that consumers will expect they can get whatever they want, whenever they want, 24 hours a day.

????Access to easy search online across many retailers and branded goods has also increased the sophistication of consumers. Those who are price-sensitive can find the very best price. Those who are sophisticated can easily educate themselves on product features and search for the optimal product configuration.

????With all this consumer sophistication, retailers stuck in the middle will not survive. However, brands that understand the consumer, focus strategies on their needs, and offer an unparalleled branded shopping experience will thrive.

????Barbara Kahn is a professor of marketing and director of the Jay H. Baker Retailing Center at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She is also chair of the Retail and Consumer Goods Executive Summit.